Is Obama Really Winning West Va. & North Dakota?

The most recent two most recent state polls out of West Virginia and North Dakota show Barack Obama ahead in both. These are states that should not even be remotely in play.

First there was a poll from American Research Group on Thursday that showed Obama up by eight points over John McCain in West Virginia, 50-42. I dismissed the poll as an outlier and probably a fluke, seeing as ARG does not have the best track record for accurate polling. Several pundits seem to agree with me in my skeptical assumption.

But today, a new Forum poll put Obama up by two points over McCain in North Dakota--a very solid red state--by a margin of 45-43. This result comes about a month after Obama pulled out all of his staffers there and basically ceded the state to McCain.

Now, I am skeptical of this poll as well, although it does make me a little less skeptical of the West Virginia poll taken last week, and I think--unless both of these polls are flukes--that we're seeing a fundamental shift everywhere on the electoral map toward Obama as a result of the economic crisis.

I still do not believe that Obama will win these states, but these polls do make you wonder how competitive they really are. McCain can't afford to spend time or money in states like these, states that he should carry with ease. For God's sake Bush beat Kerry in West Virginia by 13 points and in North Dakota by 27 points.

But these results make me seriously consider the fact that we might be on the verge of an Obama landslide. The current electoral count at RealClearPolitics.com, a right-leaning site, is Obama 364, McCain 174. Another site, Electoral-Vote.com, gives the race to Obama by a margin of 346-181, with Missouri (11 EV's) tied.

Obama is currently leading in virtually every battleground state (with the exception of Indiana), and his lead in the national polls--now about seven points--has not subsided in the past two weeks. If the economy continues on this current path and Obama's numbers look this good on election day, we may see states like West Virginia and North Dakota go blue.