State of the Race: 4 Days to Go

Many members of the media were talking today about how John McCain is "closing." Really? Because today's polls don't reflect that at all. In fact, Barack Obama increased his lead in the national tracking polls as well as in many state polls today. I guess the major networks want to say the race is getting closer so more people will watch.

We have 31 new state polls today. Here's the battleground state averages with four days to go before election day:

Missouri (11)--Obama +0.2
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.4
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.4
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.9
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.8
Montana (3)--McCain +4.0
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.1
Arizona (10)--McCain +5.2
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.6
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.6
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.5
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.9
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +9.6
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.0
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.3
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.7
Minnesota (10)--Obama +12.4

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 364
McCain: 174

John McCain really can't afford to have a day where he does not make up any ground in the battleground states, let alone lose ground in them.

Since yesterday's update, McCain has gone down by a half of a point in New Mexico, largely due to the latest PPP poll that has him down by 17 there. Now, PPP is a left-leaning pollster, so I would translate that margin into something more like 13 or 14, which is still very strong. McCain has gone down almost two points in North Dakota as a result of a Research 2000 poll that puts him up by only one point in the state. Obama has started airing advertisements there again.

McCain continues to lose ground in Arizona, and now states like Colorado, Virginia and Nevada are more competitive than his home state. The Obama campaign has started advertising in Arizona yesterday as a result of these hopeful new numbers. But I must say, that is a bit obnoxious. I mean, there's no way that Arizona is going to decide the election--they just want to add insult to injury. But, I guess they have more money than they know what to do with.

We had six polls from New Hampshire out today, where Obama is leading from anywhere between 7-15 points. I think this slew of evidence shows that he is right on track to win there.

On top of that, the majority of Colorado and New Mexico have already cast their ballots through early voting, and early totals show that far more Democrats have showed up than Republicans so far. That does not bode well for McCain.

The key states of Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia remain unchanged since yesterday. McCain needs to be closing in these states, but instead Obama still has small or even some large leads in some of these states.

The only states that are moving in McCain's direction are Indiana, Montana and Pennsylvania. Two recent polls from Montana show that McCain is gaining slightly there, and his lead is just outside the margin of error. The same goes for Indiana, which looks to be more and more promising for McCain.

The only evidence where I see McCain "closing" is in Pennsylvania. But his gains are nothing to write home about. The Morning Call tracking poll has him down by (only!) 10 points, down a point from yesterday, while a Strategic Vision poll has him down by 5 points. But keep in mind that Strategic Vision has had a Republican lean and some very erratic polling in Pennsylvania all year. This result is probably what his campaign's internal polls looked like when they decided to go all-in there last week.

So basically, Pennsylvania is McCain's last chance. Even if he does pull off a miracle and win the Keystone state, it does not automatically mean victory for him. Obama has something of a firewall in Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada--totaling 27 electoral votes to Pennsylvania's 21. Even if McCain wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina (all states he's currently behind in), all Obama needs is those three firewall states and he has 270 electoral votes.

I'm sure the electoral map and all of the different scenarios for an Obama victory is giving McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt nightmares.