Obama Surges in the Polls

Throughout the collapses of Lehman Brothers and the other gigantic banking institutions three weeks ago, the news from Wall St. has been terrifying and worrisome for nearly everyone. Nearly.

Since Wall St. began to come apart at the seams, Barack Obama's polling numbers have gone nowhere but up. Three weeks ago, Obama was down 3 percentage points nationally to John McCain, according to RealClearPolitics.com (which notoriously leans a bit to the right). This was at the height of McCain's convention/Palin bounce.

Now, according to the same site, Obama leads McCain by five percentage points. That's a net eight point gain nationally, which is almost unheard of this late in the election season. Only one presidential candidate in the past fifty years to overcome that kind of deficit was Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter in 1980. Let me tell you, John McCain is no Ronald Reagan. And Barack Obama is no Jimmy Carter.

McCain has made up for similarly sized deficits earlier in the campaign, but now as we draw closer and closer to election day, more and more people have made up their minds. McCain is running out of time.

And McCain's not only hurting in the national polls. His numbers in battleground state polls have also tanked. Let's go through the polls for eight key battleground states and see how they compare to three weeks ago.

We'll start with five typical battleground states that have been polled heavily in the last three weeks (all polling data comes from the state poll averages at RealClearPolitics.com).

Florida (27 electoral votes) secured the White House for Bush in 2000, and is a must-win state for any Republican presidential candidate. Three weeks ago, McCain led here by five, and now Obama leads by three--an eight point swing in Obama's favor.

Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) has always been a battleground state that slightly leans toward the Democrats. McCain had hoped to play offense here and put pressure from Obama, and maybe pick up its bountiful 21 electoral votes. Three weeks ago, Obama led by only two points here, and now he leads by a comfortable eight--a six point swing in Obama's favor.

Michigan (17 electoral votes) is another state in which McCain wished to play offense, and is similar to Pennsylvania demographically. Three weeks ago, Obama led by only two points here and and now he leads by seven points--a five point swing in Obama's favor.

Ohio (20 electoral votes) has always been a typical bellwether state and secured the White House for George W. Bush in 2004. Both campaigns have invested heavily in the state and see it as a must-win. Three weeks ago, McCain led there by two and now trails by two--a four point swing in Obama's favor.

And finally, Missouri (11 electoral votes) is another bellwether state that has always leaned towards the Republicans. Three weeks ago, McCain led here by seven points, and now his lead has shrunk to two--a five point swing in Obama's favor.

Now, let's take a look at three states that have become battlegrounds only this year that have been polled heavily in the last three weeks (all polling data comes from the state poll averages at RealClearPolitics.com).

Virginia (13 electoral votes) hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but with Democrats making recent gains in the Senate and the Governor's mansion as a result of a growth in the left-leaning Washington suburbs in the northern part of the state and a rising African American population, Obama sees it as in play. Three weeks ago, McCain led by three points here, but now trails Obama by three--a six point swing in Obama's favor.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes) has, like Virginia, not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964. Obama, who did well here during the primaries, has been on the offensive in this state, trying to get out the sizable African American vote. Three weeks ago, McCain led by eleven points. Now, he trails here by less than a percentage point--an eleven point swing in Obama's favor.

Colorado (9 electoral votes) is a state that has become quite competitive over the past few decades, although the last Democrat it voted for for president was Bill Clinton in 1992. Democrats have made progress in the state, picking up the the governor's seat as well as a seat in the Senate over the past four years, owed in large part to an influx of Hispanics moving into the state. Three weeks ago, Obama led here by only one percentage point, and now he leads by a comfortable margin of five--a four point swing in Obama's favor.

As we can see, Obama has made huge gains almost every battleground state. Right now, RealClearPolitics.com--which predicted the winner of every state except for one in 2004--has Obama leading McCain in the electoral college 353-185--a complete Obama landslide.

McCain is in some serious trouble. On the other hand, the Obama campaign is probably laughing through its tears each time the stock market plunges. The worse the economy is, the better it is for their candidate. Now, things could change. 34 days is a long time in presidential politics. But something huge--whether its in one of the debates or on Wall St. or around the world or whatever--will have to happen in order for McCain to pull this thing off. That's just a fact.