My Presidential Election Predictions

Drumroll please. Here are my final predictions for the 20 battleground states as well as the national popular vote for the presidential election. The states are listed in alphabetical order. Here we go.

Arizona (10)--
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 47%
Notes: Obama will give McCain a bit of a scare here when the networks don't immediately call the state for McCain, but he will indeed carry his home state.

Colorado (9)--
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: Obama will benefit heavily from early voting and a hefty advantage in enthusiasm. Hispanic and younger voters will show up to the polls in unprecedented numbers here.

Florida (27)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Barack Obama will squeak out a win in here due to the impressive and unprecedented support he received from early voting. The networks will not project this state until late in the night, making sure they do not get this state wrong again. For the record, this state along with North Carolina were the hardest states to predict the winner in.

Georgia (15)--
John McCain: 50%
Barack Obama: 48%
Notes: An incredibly large surge in African American turnout won't be enough for Obama to steal this state away from McCain, but it'll be close. However, Obama will overperform the polls here like he did in the primaries. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr will get around 2% of the vote here in his home state--the best result he will get nationwide.

Indiana (11)--
John McCain: 51%
Barack Obama: 49%
Notes: This state is too red to change hands this election cycle. The undecideds in this state will swing to McCain at the last minute, although Obama will do well in Gary County and the northwest part of the state. I also predict that there will be a small Bradley effect here.

Iowa (7)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 45%
Notes: I don't know why the McCain campaign ever thought they could have won this state. Their candidate basically ignored the Iowa caucuses in 2000 and 2008, and he opposes subsidies for ethanol (and there are a lot of corn farmers in Iowa) while Obama basically lived here for a year before the caucuses in January.

Minnesota (10)--
Barack Obama: 55%
John McCain: 44%
Notes: The presidential race will not be close here and the networks will call it for Obama soon after the polls close at 9:00 Eastern time. The real race to watch in this state will be the three-way Senate race that could not be closer.

Missouri (11)--
John McCain: 50%
Barack Obama: 49%
Notes: This state will lose its status as a bellwether for the rest of the country. McCain will only very slightly edge out Obama here, and black voters in St. Louis and Kansas City will come out in huge numbers to support Obama.

Montana (3)--
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: This state will be one the biggest shockers of the night. The rain that is expected there will cause many Republicans who are indifferent to McCain to stay home. Ron Paul, who is on the ballot as the state's Constitution Party candidate will receive 4% of the vote here, while Bob Barr will get 1%. That 5% that normally would have gone to McCain will give Obama just enough to win the state's three electoral votes.

Nevada (5)--
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 48%
Notes: A surge of Hispanic voters as well as massive turnout in the more liberal southern part of the state will propel Obama to victory here.

New Hampshire (4)--
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 46%
Notes: A statewide Democratic sweep will occur here on election day, much like it did in 2006. New Hampshire voters' frustration and hatred of the Bush administration will overrule their affection for John McCain dating back to the 2000 Republican primaries. But McCain will outperform the polls here because of his history with the state and his "maverick" status.

New Mexico (5)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 46%
Notes: Hispanics will be the big story here. They will come out in droves for Barack Obama by a three-to-one margin.

North Carolina (15)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Unlike Georgia, the immense surge in African American voters will be enough for Obama to take this state away from the Republican column. Also, the enthusiasm of Obama supporters during early voting will play heavily to his advantage. This was a very tough call for me, but I refuse to second guess myself about this prediction.

North Dakota (3)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: This will be the other big election night surprise, and it will be insult to injury for John McCain. Obama will benefit heavily from same-day registration, which is one of the cornerstones of the state's voting tradition.

Ohio (20)--
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Even Joe the Plumber can't save John McCain in this, the swingiest of swing states. The hard toll the economy has had on state will overrule whatever inhibitions Ohioans will have about Barack Obama. Ohio, along with Indiana, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, will have a small Bradley effect, but it will not be significant enough to cause Obama to lose the state.

Pennsylvania (21)--
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: McCain's last minute all-out effort in the state, coupled with a minor Bradley effect in central and western Pennsylvania, will fall short in denying Obama the Keystone state.

South Dakota (3)--
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 46%
Notes: Unlike its partner to the north, South Dakota will stay firmly in the Republican column this time around.

Virginia (13)--
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 48%
Notes: Once again, the heavy African American turnout will make a huge difference in this new swing state. Obama will carry the Washington suburbs in northern Virginia by large margins and put the state's 13 electoral votes in the Democratic column for the first time since 1964.

West Virginia (5)--
John McCain: 56%
Barack Obama: 44%
Notes: Contrary to what many polls indicated, West Virginia was never in play. White voters (which make up the vast majority here) will end up voting for McCain in the end, despite their concerns about the economy. There will be a significant Bradley effect in West Virginia, a state where Obama got about a quarter of the vote during the primaries.

Wisconsin (10)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 45%
Notes: Dissatisfaction with President Bush and Republicans in general along with Obama's progressive and populist message will cause the Democrat to win this state easily.

Final Electoral Count:
Barack Obama: 359
John McCain: 179

Final Popular Vote:
Barack Obama: 52.3%
John McCain: 47.1%
Other: 0.6%