Texas and Ohio Predictions

Alright. I'm 55 for 70 so far with predictions this primary season. Here's my predictions for tomorrow's primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Texas:
1.) Obama 52%
2.) Clinton 48%

Ohio:
1.) Clinton 53%
2.) Obama 47%

Vermont:
1.) Obama 63%
2.) Clinton 37%

Rhode Island:
1.) Clinton 54%
2.) Obama 46%

Tomorrow is the real Super Tuesday. Everything is at stake for Hillary Clinton. She's behind by over 100 delegates by most counts, and Barack Obama has all of the momentum.

This is visible in the polls where her lead in the polls in Ohio and Texas--her supposed firewall states--are now within the margin of error. In most Texas polls, she has been overtaken by Obama.

This is also visible in the massive shift of superdelegates towards Obama's side since his Potomac Primary victories. Superdelegates such as Rep. John Lewis have switched from Clinton to Obama, and many more are under immense pressure to do so.

She needs to win big in both states tomorrow to get some momentum and delegates back. And with each day, that's looking less and less likely. So here's the thinking behind my predictions.

The Texas primary should be pretty even. Obama should carry about 85% of the black vote, Clinton should carry about 60% of the Latino vote, and whites should be pretty even leaning slightly to Clinton.

That should all balance out to about a tie. But then comes the caucus. Texas has this bizarre and complicated voting system where you can vote twice if you so wish: in the primary and the caucus. And you can only vote in the caucus if you've already voted in the primary. Yikes.

But given the strength Obama has shown in caucuses--especially in the West--he should win that with a decent margin, giving him the overall majority and should allow him to come away with the most delegates.

Now, on to Ohio. This state is tailor-made for Clinton. Despite Obama's momentum, I think she will carry the state by a small margin but the delegate split will be about even.

Here's why I think she'll win. I think she'll do well with lower income voters, and Ohio has plenty of them.

I also think although most of the major unions have endorsed Obama, the endorsements don't have as much sway with voting as they used to. For example, Obama got almost all of the union endorsements in Nevada--a state with plenty of unions--and he lost.

I also think that Gov. Ted Strickland's endorsement will help with her grassroots operations because he has so many people at his disposal. This will especially help in the rural southeast part of the state that she needs to carry.

Vermont should go heavily for Obama because it is progressive, liberal, and just a perfect state for Obama.

Rhode Island is more like Massachusetts. It will tilt towards Clinton but will not produce a large enough margin to really make a difference in the delegate count.

So here it is again. Texas and Vermont go to Obama; Ohio and Rhode Island go to Clinton. The overall delegate count won't change much, in face it will probably tilt more towards Obama.

Clinton will stay in the race despite not achieving the big wins she needed to get in order to weaken Obama's margin in the delegate count.