Georgia Senate Runoff Prediction

The polls in Georgia close in a few hours, and I thought I'd give my last minute prediction--my last one until 2010--right about now. So for old time's sake, here we go.

Right now the polls have Chambliss up by about 5 points over Martin going into election day, but it is nearly impossible to run an accurate poll in a runoff election because it is very hard to predict turnout (which is supposed to be way down from November 4). But here's my prediction anyway:

Saxby Chambliss* (R)--53%
Jim Martin (D)--47%

Let's put it this way. On the day before the runoff election, Chambliss had Sarah Palin campaigning for him and Martin had the rapper Ludacris. That fact alone should speak volumes about what the outcome of this race will likely be.

Overall, the national GOP has put a lot more effort into this race, contributing money and sending Republican stars like John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, and of course, Sarah Palin to stump for Chambliss.

On the Democratic side, only Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Donna Brazile have made appearances for Martin.

And to be fair, the Republicans have been making a much stronger argument to Georgia voters in their attempt to "stop rampant liberalism" by preventing the Democrats from attaining that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

There has been some anecdotal evidence that Martin does have a better ground game and get-out-the-vote effort than Chambliss, which is probably because hundreds of volunteers and paid campaign workers from the Obama campaign swooped down to Georgia to work for Martin right after the November 4 election.

But the bad news for Martin is the group that saved him from losing outright to Chambliss on the first election day--African Americans--have dropped off, according to polling data of early voters. 35% of early voters were African Americans in the first election because of the excitement with Obama, but now that number has dropped to 23%. That's going to be a big problem for Martin.

Martin's campaign is saying that unlike the Obama campaign's emphasis on early voting, they did not do a gigantic early and absentee voting push, instead opting for a big December 2 turnout. They had better hope so, or they really don't have a prayer.

I think that between Chambliss's argument that he's the firewall between the Democrats and their 60-seat majority, the GOP star power in Georgia, and the drop in African American turnout, Chambliss will win the seat comfortably by six points over Martin.

Since Chambliss did finish 3 points ahead of Martin on November 4, he is still the favorite, but is by no means a shoe-in. It is true that anything can happen in the runoff, and they notoriously hard to predict. But it does seem as though there is a strong motivation among Georgia Republicans to come back and win this one.

Runoffs are usually a battle of the bases, and to me, it looks like their base is more enthusiastic and will come out in larger numbers to keep their guy, Saxby Chambliss, in the Senate.