Poll Watch: Pennsylvania and New York

In Pennsylvania, a new Susquehanna poll shows that Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) could be in some serious trouble in his 2010 reelection bid--particularly in the Republican primary.

Specter is widely viewed as a moderate Republican, which would seem to fit the bill of Pennsylvania well. But many of the moderate Republican voters that have supported him in previous bids have either moved out of the state or have switched registration to the Democratic Party.

And that's significant because in Pennsylvania the primaries are closed (meaning that only registered members of the party can vote in their own primary) so Democrats and Independents can't vote in the Republican primary.

This poll shows that 53% of all Pennsylvanians--and 66% of Republicans--want someone to replace Specter after 2010, spelling trouble for him in the primary against a (much) more conservative candidate like former Rep. Pat Toomey--who almost defeated Specter in the 2004 Republican primary and just re-declared his interest in next year's race.

If Specter survives the primary, he is in good position to win in the general election, as 49% of Democrats said that they would back Specter. However, if a conservative like Toomey wins the GOP nomination, the Democratic nominee would have a much better shot of consolidating the Democratic race and taking the seat.

So in short, liberal Democrats should be cheering at the prospect of a Toomey candidacy, as long as they get a top-tier candidate of their own.

-

In New York, a new Marist poll shows a statistical dead heat between incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who has said that she would challenge Gillibrand in the 2010 primary over the issue of gun control.

The poll shows Gillibrand leading McCarthy 36% to 33%, which is in the margin of error. 50% of New Yorkers have no opinion either way of Gillibrand, while 18% say she is doing an excellent/good job and 32% say she is doing a fair/poor job.

Gillibrand has been positioning herself farther to the left on issues like gun control since she joined the Senate, in part to avoid a primary battle with someone like McCarthy.

In a general election match-up, Gillibrand trounces Rep. Peter King (R) by a margin of 49-28--as she has done in three previous polls against him. King would clearly be a weak general election candidate, even against someone as unknown/unpopular as Gillibrand.

It looks like the NRSC's only hope of picking up the seat in the 2010 special election lies with former Gov. George Pataki (R), although his entry in the race is seen as unlikely. In the poll, Gillibrand leads Pataki 45% to 41%.