LA: Poll Shows Vitter Could Be in Trouble

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) could face a tough reelection battle in the Republican primary as well as the general election in 2010, a new Research 2000 poll shows.

The poll included hypothetical primary and general election match-ups with one Republican (Secretary of State Jay Dardenne) and two Democrats (Rep. Charlie Melancon and former Rep. Don Cazayoux). Here are the numbers:

Vitter--43%
Dardenne--32%

Vitter--48%
Melancon--41%

Vitter--48%
Cazayoux--39%

Dardenne--49%
Melancon--40%

Dardenne--50%
Cazayoux--38%

Notice that Vitter is below 50% in all of his match-ups (even in his own party's primary), which is a tell-tale sign of vulnerability for any incumbent. Vitter's favorability ratings are also mediocre, with 49% viewing him favorably and 42% viewing him unfavorably.

Vitter holds a similar single-digit lead over both Democrats tested in the poll, but neither one is likely to run in 2010. Melancon disavowed any interest in running, while Cazayoux has not even been in the conversation for the most part. But given how similar their numbers are, we can assume that their share of the vote is for the generic Democratic candidate--whomever that may be. So if the Democrats can get their act together and nominate a credible candidate, they have a chance at taking Vitter down.

Meanwhile, Dardenne fares well against Vitter in the GOP primary, but still trails him by nine points, showing that Vitter still has a significant following with the conservative wing of the state's Republican Party. After all, Dardenne is seen as moderate compared to the right-wing Vitter.

But one other ultra-conservative Republican name that has been floating around as possible candidate, Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, was not tested in the poll--so we don't really know how much of the conservative vote he would siphon off from Vitter.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot: porn star Stormy Daniels received 1% of the vote in the Republican primary. Finally some good news for you, Dave!