PA: Will Specter Switch Parties?

The Hill has an interesting article on Sen. Arlen Specter's (R-PA) options for what will most likely be the political challenge of his life in his 2010 re-election bid.

Specter will face former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in the Republican primary, a "conservative firebrand" that came within 7,000 votes of taking down Specter in the 2004 GOP primary and one that will likely prove an even bigger threat to Specter this time around. But last time, Specter had the support of President Bush, then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), and most of the Republican establishment. This time, the RNC is threatening to hold funds from him and the state Republicans' dissatisfaction with him has grown exponentially in recent years. This time, it looks like he is alone.

Specter has always drawn much of his support from independents, moderate Republicans and many of the state's Democrats--three groups that have fueled his re-election victories for decades. But many (hundreds of thousands) of the state's Independents and moderate Republicans have registered with the Democratic Party since the 2008 election, which hurts Specter in the closed Republican primary, in which only registered Republicans can vote. So the Republican electorate is much more conservative than it was in 2004. His buddies in the middle can't help him out in the primary.

So then, the prospect of Specter switching parties comes up. Pennsylvania law prohibits him from pulling a Lieberman--which is having the option of falling back and running as an independent should he lose in the primary.

But one option that he does have, according to this article, is to switch his party affiliation before the election and run either as an Independent or Democrat. He would probably have a better shot of beating Toomey--who is viewed as too right-wing for a bluish purple state like Pennsylvania--if he ran as an Independent or Democrat (if he did that he would still have to win the Democratic nomination which is no easy feat).

But in a three-way race with Toomey as the GOP candidate, Specter as an Independent, and a Democrat running, the whole thing would become incredibly unpredictable.

I mean, it's a long shot. But it's still something that we can speculate about, because there is a chance that Specter is at least considering this right now. Stay tuned.