A new Republican internal poll commissioned by Wilson Research Strategies out of Missouri shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) leading both of her potential Republican opponents--Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman--for the state's open Senate seat in 2010. The poll was commissioned as Republican internal poll.
Carnahan leads Blunt 47% to 44%, and she leads Steelman 47% to 39%. The survey has a 4% margin of error. The poll also found that Blunt has very high negatives among Democrats and Independents, presumably from his partisan past as a House Republican leader.
On the Democratic side, Carnahan will likely not face any trouble in the primary, and with the announcement of her candidacy she immediately became the probable Democratic nominee.
On the Republican side, things won't be that simple. Blunt has already announced his candidacy and Steelman has shown signs that she will jump in as well, setting up a fierce and probably nasty GOP primary that could drive up the negatives and drain the cash of the eventual nominee.
The Republican establishment is lining up behind Blunt, while Steelman would run as an Washington outsider and a reformer. The two have already had nasty exchanges (Steelman called Blunt "another white guy in a suit") even though Steelman has not officially entered the contest.
The bloodier the fight is for the Republican nomination, the better the chances are that Robin Carnahan will be headed off to Washington in 2011.
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