Is Chris Dodd the New Jim Bunning?

The results of a new Quinnipiac poll should be sending shivers down the spines of Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and the DSCC. The survey finds Dodd in deep trouble for 2010, with only 33% of voters approving of the job he is doing and 58% disapproving--truly scary sign for a 30-year incumbent, especially one in a blue state like Connecticut.

A whopping 74% blamed Dodd for the AIG bonuses, while 54% don’t believe Dodd is honest and trustworthy. Dodd also only garners the support of half of his own party.

He also shows some poor numbers when matched up against some Republicans in the general election. He trails former Rep. Rob Simmons, the likely Republican nominee, by 16 points, 50-34. He also trails little-known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri 41-37 and former ambassador Tom Foley 43-35.

These terrible numbers can be attributed to the firestorm of criticism regarding his role in the AIG bonuses fiasco, his ties to Countrywide, and his failed 2008 presidential bid that seemed to piss off his constituents in Connecticut.

Because we are still in the midst of the financial crisis and Dodd plays a central role in the process of doling out money to banks and companies like AIG as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, we can be sure that these numbers aren't likely to improve much in the near future.

Thus, Dodd's position is starting to look more and more like Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY). Both are clearly the most endangered incumbents of their respective parties and have extremely high negatives. Both are from states that--given their political leanings--should give them inherent advantages for re-election. And in both cases, another candidate from their party would have a better shot of retaining the seat that they would.

The Republican establishment not-so-secretly tried to get Bunning to retire, and it turned into a nasty back-and-forth between Bunning and the leaders of his own party. Their next thought was to possibly support a primary opponent to Bunning, but the Senator threatened to sue the NRSC for going against their pledge of supporting Republican incumbents, turning into yet another nasty exchange. Finally, NRSC chairman John Cornyn publicly agreed to back Bunning in 2010, but the situation was handled very poorly by Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and there still appears to be bad blood between them and Bunning.

The Democrats can learn from the mistakes of the way that the GOP handled Bunning when trying to figure out what to do about Dodd. They have already said that they will not try to ask him to step down before 2010. Said one senior Democratic operative: “It’s up to Senator Dodd, there’s no indication that he’s willing to do that. We’re not going to have a Jim Bunning situation our hands."

Another option they might have to get around having Dodd run against someone like Simmons in 2010 is to primary him, presumably with a popular statewide official like state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, but Democratic insiders seem to think that there is no way Blumenthal would challenge Dodd in a primary.

Some other options for Democratic alternatives to Dodd can be found in the state's congressional delegation. Rep. John Larson would be unlikely to run because of his position in the House leadership, and Rep. Jim Himes has direct ties to the very financial world that has recently come under fire. But Reps. Rosa DeLauro, Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney could all be compelling alternatives.

But the only other option besides asking Dodd to step down and supporting a primary challenger that the DSCC has left--and the one they will most likely take--is to rally around the embattled Senator and hope that this is his point of rock bottom. His numbers have nowhere to go but up...right?

Anyway, I think that there is a good possibility that Dodd and Bunning--now indisputably the two most vulnerable incumbents of the 2010 cycle--will both lose their seats next November, effectively canceling each other's losses out. If that is the case, the Democrats will have to look elsewhere for their 60th seat.

P.S. I'm officially moving this race into the "Toss-Up" category.

Update: When asked if he might seek a new candidate, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez replied, "Are you serious? Chris Dodd is going to be re-elected. He's a great senator."