PA: Toomey Will Run Against Specter

Both conservatives and Democrats have something to celebrate tonight in Pennsylvania: former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) will run against Sen. Arlen Specter in the 2010 Republican primary, the Allentown Morning Call reports.

"Pat's formal announcement will be forthcoming," said a GOP official close to Toomey.

So first let's tackle why conservatives are happy about this development. Arlen Specter has always been seen as a moderate-to-liberal Republican and a RINO (Republican In Name Only) since he was first elected to the Senate. He provided President Obama and Harry Reid the deciding cloture vote on the stimulus package, and has voted with Democrats on many occasions. In short: conservative despise him.

Pat Toomey, who now heads the conservative Club For Growth, is revered by the conservative wing of the Republican Party. Toomey narrowly lost to Specter in the 2004 Republican primary, but Specter had the full support of then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) and then-President Bush back then. This time around, Specter doesn't have too many buddies left to back him up--in fact, RNC chairman Michael Steele threatened to withhold funds from his reelection campaign because of his support of the stimulus.

Toomey, as head of the Club For Growth--which is solely devoted to helping get conservative candidates elected--has a broad political network and a national support base that will make him flush with campaign cash, just ready and rearing to go after the Senator.

Specter was also in trouble before this whole Toomey thing started. A poll released last week showed that 53% of all Pennsylvanians--and 66% of Republicans--want someone to replace Specter. If you're starting off with two-thirds of your own party against you, you're in some deep...stuff.

Now, let's get into why Democrats are cheering about Toomey's candidacy. Toomey will undoubtedly pose a very strong challenge to Specter in the primary, which will at the very least draw Specter to the right--making him less enticing to those independent voters who have been crucial in keeping him in office all these years, and an overall weaker general election candidate.

Their best case scenario is facing off against Toomey in the general election. Let's be honest here, Toomey is (probably) way too conservative for a bluish purple state like Pennsylvania. He would thus be much easier to defeat in the general election than a deeply entrenched incumbent with significant support from across the aisle. Also, whoever comes out with the GOP nomination will have severely depleted campaign funds and higher disapproval ratings, as is customary with competitive primary fights.

Also, other top-tier Democrats who are actively taking a look at the race--namely Rep. Patrick Murphy, Rep. Allyson Schwartz and Auditor General Jack Wagner--might be more encouraged to run for the seat now that they know Specter will have to deal with a challenge from the right before he tries to re-sell himself in the general election.

The only thing that we can say for sure is that Specter's voting record in the Senate will take a sharp turn to the right over next year or so in order to make him seem more appealing to Republicans back home--yet another thing that conservatives can cheer about as a result of Toomey's candidacy.