Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Friday, November 28, 2008

Georgia Senate Runoff Update

It's coming down to the wire for Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin as they prepare for their runoff election on Tuesday.

John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani, and Zell Miller have already come down and campaigned for Chambliss, and Sarah Palin will make several stops for him on Monday. Their message is simple--electing Chambliss might be the last chance at stopping the Democrats from having that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority and thus complete control in Washington.

Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Donna Brazile have campaigned for Martin, but he has yet to get a visit from the greatest marquee name in the party--President-elect Barack Obama. And that visit is unlikely to come, seeing as if he campaigns for Martin and he loses, he will have appeared to already have lost some of his political capital. However, he did cut a radio for Martin, and Martin is still riding the Obama wave, mentioning his name as much as he can in ads and speeches.

Chambliss defeated Martin by three points on Nov. 4, but was two-tenths of a percentage point shy of winning outright. In that race, Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley received about 3% of the vote, and who his supporters line up behind could decide the outcome of the runoff.

The polls so far show that Chambliss has a lead of about five points over Martin, but runoff elections are notoriously hard to poll because the turnout is generally much lower than on Election Day, and is thus hard to predict.

The winner of Tuesday's election will really be determined by which party turns out its base more, and as of right now it appears that Chambliss has the edge over Martin.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

McCain Wins Missouri

John McCain has defeated Barack Obama in Missouri--the last state to be called in the 2008 presidential election, according to the Associated Press and several other major news organizations.

And boy it was close one. According to unofficial results, McCain leads Obama by 3,632 votes out of nearly 3 million cast--a margin of 0.12 percentage points.

McCain's win in Missouri breaks its tradition as a bellwether for the rest of the country--Missourians had picked the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1956.

Missouri's 11 electoral votes make the final electoral count: Obama 365, McCain 173.

Ted Stevens Concedes

Republican Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska conceded to Democrat Mark Begich earlier today, and has announced that he will not seek a recount.

With nearly all the votes counted, Begich leads by 3,724 votes, or 1.2%, over Stevens. Thus ends Stevens's forty-year long reign in the Senate.

It also dashes Sarah Palin's hope of becoming a Senator before 2012.

Now, the Democrats have officially picked up seven seats, and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut will remain in the Democratic caucus, giving them 58 seats (including Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont).

In Minnesota, all of the ballots have been counted and Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken by 215 votes. However, an automatic manual recount (that's by hand) of all 2.9 million votes started today and thousands of contested ballots will be fought over one by one in the coming weeks. The recount will be overseen by a five-man board consisting of Minnesota secretary of state Mark Richie (a Democrat) and four state judges. It is being reported that it could take up to a month.

In Georgia, both sides are gearing up for the December 2 runoff election between Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. John McCain and other marquee Republican names have been or will be down there campaigning for Chambliss, while Bill Clinton will hold a rally with Martin in Atlanta. It should be close, but I'd give the edge to Chambliss.

If the Democrats pull off a miracle and win both of these seats, then they will have their 60-seat filibuster-proof majority. But it is still highly unlikely.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Begich Will Win Alaska Senate Race

With 14,626 of the 24,000 ballots left to count today, Democrat Mark Begich now has a 2,374 vote lead over Republican Ted Stevens. The remaining results are expected to be counted by the end of the day, but Stevens would need to win the remaining votes by more than a 65-35 margin, and so far the early, absentee and provisional ballots (which are the votes that are still being counted) have heavily favored Begich.

Begich currently has a 0.77% lead over Stevens, and the only way a recount funded by the state can occur is if the margin is within 0.5%. Stevens might pay the $15,000 needed to pay for a privately funded recount. And that is chump change for Stevens.

But that's just going to be one last desperate attempt to prolong the process and salvage his long-held seat.

Nevertheless, barring a miracle, Mark Begich will be the next U.S. Senator from the weird state of Alaska.

Update (9:38 PM): Begich now leads Stevens by 3,724 votes.

Senate Races Update

After 41 more ballots were counted to today in Minnesota, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman now leads Democrat Al Franken by 215, gaining a net 9 votes from the previous count. Now the race will go to an automatic recount, and expect there to be a giant legal battle.

In Alaska, Democrat Mark Begich now leads convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens by 1,022 votes. The results will be finalized tomorrow, and if Begich's lead is under 1,500 votes, there is a good possibility that there will be an automatic hand recount there as well.

In Georgia, big-name Republicans like John McCain are stumping for Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss, and both the Republican and Democratic National Senatorial Committees have started ads there. Turnout is expected to be low--probably half of the number of people who voted on November 4. Its going to be a battle of the bases, and my guess is that the Republican base is stronger down there. The runoff election is scheduled for December 2.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Begich Takes Lead in Alaska Senate Race

Alaska's division of elections counted about 60,000 of the absentee, early and questioned ballots yesterday, and they broke heavily in Democrat Mark Begich's favor.

Before yesterday's count, Begich (left) trailed Sen. Ted Stevens by 3,353 votes. But now, Begich leads Stevens by 814 votes--132,196 to 131,382.

And according to FiveThirtyEight.com, "the remaining votes come from Begich-friendly districts." State elections chief Gail Fenumiai confirmed this by saying that the state's most populous region, based in Anchorage, won't count its ballots until either Monday or Wednesday. Begich is currently the mayor of Anchorage, so he is expected to do very well there, further boosting his chances of winning the seat.

The state still needs to count at least 15,000 questioned ballots and an estimated 25,000 absentees, so this thing is far from over. But it is safe to say that Begich is the overwhelming favorite to win the contested Alaska Senate seat.

It is unclear whether the Republican Party really wants Stevens to win reelection. They want a clean break from the Bush administration as well as corruption, and many Republican Senators do not want their party to be associated with the man. One of the most conservative members of the Senate, Republican Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina has said that he will vote to expel Stevens from the Republican caucus if he wins reelection. On the other hand, a Stevens loss does get the Democrats one step closer to that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority.

If Begich does end up winning this thing, it effectively shuts the door on Sarah Palin's chances of becoming a U.S. Senator, thus helping keep her out of national politics until 2012. If Stevens was expelled from the Senate, she could have ran for the seat in the 2010 special election that would have taken place, and could have boasted that she had executive and legislative experience. But then again, she would lost her credibility as a Washington outsider. And we all know how much she loves to tote that title.

Meanwhile, the Senate race in Minnesota is getting ugly and bitter. Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken by 206 votes but the vote total has changed drastically since last Tuesday. Coleman was up by about 700 votes at one point, but that lead has shrunk considerably. Minnesota election officials are still counting votes.

An automatic hand recount of nearly 3 million vote will start on Nov. 18, and both Coleman and Franken have hired literally hundreds of lawyers each to deal with the inevitable legal debacle. The recount is expected to stretch into mid-December. Coleman's people have already started accusing Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, who is a Democrat, to be biased. They are also tying him to acorn in attempt to try and invalidate him. Expect this thing to get really ugly over the next month.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Big Names Called Down for Georgia Senate Runoff

Since Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss (left) failed to get the 50% needed to claim victory against Democrat Jim Martin, his campaign is calling in all the big Republican guns to help. John McCain, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and Newt Gingrich are expected to go down to the Peach State and stump for Chambliss in a desperate attempt to keep as many Senate seats out of Democratic hands as humanly possible.

High-profile Democrats have not been enthusiastic about getting down to Georgia and campaigning for their guy. Martin has been in contact with Barack Obama, trying to get him to come down and stump for him, but he is in a bit of a bind.

He would love an extra seat in the Senate, but the last thing he wants right now is to fail one of his first tests and appear like he has no sway as president-elect.

There is an eerie similarity between this situation and the situation that Bill Clinton was in when he was first elected president. The Democrats had taken control of the the White House and Congress and there was a run-off election happening in Georgia. The Republican candidate framed his candidacy as a last stand against Democratic filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Clinton and Gore ended up campaigning on behalf of the Democratic candidate, but he lost and Republicans said it was a signal of Clinton's already weakening political standing.

So, I think it's best that Obama plays it safe and sits this one out. It is far too risky for and he has more to lose than to gain. And it is unlikely that the Democrats will reach that 60-seat majority anyway. Of course it would be nice to have another Democrat in the Senate, but at what cost? And it's not like he doesn't have enough to do--he's got his hands full and then some. And I just think for those reasons, he will not campaign for Martin.

However, Martin might be able to get one of the Clintons to help him out. Bill Clinton won the state in 1992 and might still have some sway in the state as a fellow southerner.

Still, by all measures, it looks like Chambliss is still the favorite to hold his seat.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Obama Wins Omaha Electoral Vote

The Omaha World-Herald and several other news organizations have called Nebraska 2nd congressional district for president-elect Barack Obama, splitting the state's electoral votes for the first time in history.

The 2nd district is home to the city of Omaha and its surrounding suburbs, where there is a higher percentage of African Americans and registered Democrats than the rest of Nebraska. Obama poured resources, sent 16 paid staffers and opened three offices in the district.

It is truly amazing that in this landslide, Obama managed to pick up an electoral vote in perhaps the most solidly red region in the country. There will now be a blue circle amidst a sea of red in the Great Plains on national electoral maps.

These results give Obama his 365th electoral vote, while McCain's tally stands at 162. The only electoral votes that are left outstanding are the 11 from Missouri, where John McCain currently leads. MSNBC and FiveThirtyEight.com have called the state for McCain while CNN, Politico, RealClearPolitics have yet to declare a winner.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Something Smells Funny in Alaska

It really does, and I don't think it's that dead moose that Sarah Palin shot from a helicopter. Wouldn't you expect that turnout in Alaska to increase with their first native daughter on a national ticket and an extremely close Senate race? Yeah, I would think so too.

But according to initial reports, turnout in Alaska is down 14% from 2004. On top of that, the polls taken right before presidential election showed John McCain up by 14 points, but he won by 25 points. The polls also showed that Democratic Senate candidate Mark Begich ahead by between 8-22 points. But with most of the votes counted, convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (above) narrowly leads Begich. Those same polls also showed Democrat Ethan Berkowitz leading Rep. Don Young--another Alaskan politician under investigation--but Young is handily beating Berkowitz.

So there seems to be an across-the-board polling failure in Alaska, while the polls were very accurate everywhere else in the country. I don't really know what to make of it, but something isn't right.

Meanwhile, Ted Stevens leads Mark Begich by 3,353 votes with 100% of the precincts reporting, but there are currently at least 9,500 early votes remaining to be counted in Alaska. In addition, there are more than 50,000 absentee votes. Lastly, there are at least 18,000 "questioned" ballots, which consist principally of voters who may have cast ballots away from their home precincts. Begich has led so far among early and absentee votes, meaning that it is very possible that he could close the gap or even pull ahead of Stevens. So this race is still a toss-up. Nate Silver has a good piece on this race.

Senate Republicans and Democrats alike are calling for Stevens's expulsion from the Senate during the lame duck session--regardless of whether or not he is re-elected. If they get the two-thirds majority that is needed to expel him, guess who gets to appoint a new senator? You guessed it: Sarah Palin.

And no, Palin cannot appoint herself to the Senate. But, she can resign as governor so Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell will then become governor, and then have him appoint her to the Senate. Thus, she could become a more central figure in national politics and stay in the spotlight leading up to her probable run for the presidency in 2012. There is a lot more riding on this seat than people think.

And with all of this corruption and ethics scandals and reverse Bradley effect with convicted felons going on in America's frozen tundra, I am considering joining the Alaskan Independence Party.

Poll: Did Palin Hurt or Help?

Rasmussen has a new poll on the subject:

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Republican voters say Alaska Governor Sarah Palin helped John McCain's bid for the presidency, even as news reports surface that some McCain staffers think she was a liability.


Ninety-one percent (91%) of Republicans have a favorable view of Palin, including 65% who say their view is Very Favorable. Only eight percent (8%) have an unfavorable view of her, including three percent (3%) Very Unfavorable.


When asked to choose among some of the GOP's top names for their choice for the party's 2012 presidential nominee, 64% say Palin. The next closest contenders are two former governors and unsuccessful challengers for the presidential nomination this year -- Mike Huckabee of Arkansas with 12% support and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts with 11%.


It appears that as of now, Palin still seems popular with her own party looking ahead to 2012. But is she already the front-runner?

Well, it certainly seems that way, but it is still very very early. I mean, Barack Obama was just elected president three days ago. But this poll does show that most Republicans still have a very favorable view of her, especially the conservative base of the party. Only a small fraction of the party does not view her favorably as of now.

But voters and Americans in general have very short-term memories, and I think her popularity within the party will depend on what she does over the next year or two, as well as what Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty, and Mark Sanford do as well.

Already Looking Ahead to 2012

Senior McCain officials told FOX News reporter Carl Cameron that Sarah Palin didn't know that Africa was a continent--not a country--and that she did not know what countries were involved in the North American Fair Trade Agreement.

If these allegations are true, then all I have to say is "wow!" It is hard to believe (well, maybe not that hard) that this person was almost our Vice President and they didn't even know that Africa was a continent.

These leaks are just another example of the infighting between McCain officials and Sarah Palin's handlers that took place towards the end of the campaign and is clearly continuing after the election. In that time, McCain officials have called Palin a "diva" and a "hillbilly," among other things.

Many McCain officials and supporters are blaming Palin for McCain's loss on Tuesday, and it appears that there is a massive power vacuum within the Republican Party.

Based on what Palin has hinted at as well as her popularity with the conservative base of the Republican Party, it seems likely that she will run for President in 2012. And the more post-election blame-game and infighting there is, the more it hurts her chances in four years as well as the public's perception of her.

I know it seems a bit early to be talking about 2012, but two possible Republican candidates seem to disagree. Mike Huckabee will be visiting the state of Iowa--where the 2012 race for the nomination will begin--in 14 days. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who is largely expected to run in 2012 and is seen as a rising star in the party, will be visiting the state two days after Huckabee.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken of Republicans right after Barack Obama was projected to be the next president of who they would want as their nominee in 2012. Mitt Romney won with 31%, Huckabee came in second with 21%, and Sarah Palin came in third with only 18%.

I know its a long time away, but it will be interesting to see if the Republican Party moves more the right or more to the center with their party platform and standard-bearer for the 2010 and 2012 elections.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Franken Gaining on Coleman in Minn.

Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman's lead over Democratic challenger Al Franken has been shrinking since election day, as state election officials continue to count provisional and absentee ballots. Here are the vote results from the Minnesota Secretary of State's office at various points throughout the day:

9:15 AM
Coleman: 1,211,520
Franken: 1,211,077


10:15 AM
Coleman: 1,211,525
Franken: 1,211,088


1:20 PM
Coleman: 1,211,527
Franken: 1,211,190


9:00 PM
Coleman: 1,211,542
Franken: 1,211,306


So as the day wore on, Coleman's lead has gone down from 443, to 437, to 337, to 236. After all of the votes are counted, regardless of who's ahead, an statewide automatic recount will be triggered. But legally speaking, it is important who has the lead going into the recount. Remember Bush v. Gore?

Coleman has been urging Franken to concede, but the Democrat has adamantly refused and wants all the votes to be counted, then recounted. We will probably not know the winner of this race until December.

Obama Likely to Win One Nebraska Electoral Vote

That's right. Nebraska. The Omaha World-Herald reports:

Good news for Barack Obama supporters.

His odds of bagging an electoral vote in Nebraska grew stronger this morning, with word that 10,000 to 12,000 early ballots and 5,200 provisional ballots are left to count in Douglas County.

Obama won about 61 percent of the early votes counted before Tuesday's election. If that percentage holds with the early ballots left to count, Obama stands a strong chance of winning the Omaha-area 2nd Congressional District.

Republicans did not concede defeat this morning, but they acknowledged the long odds.

John McCain held a 569-vote lead over Obama in the 2nd District at the end of Tuesday.

"I will remain cautiously hopeful but not cautiously optimistic," said Hal Daub, state director for McCain. "I'm disappointed (in the numbers). We really worked hard here, against substantial resources being poured into Nebraska."

The final results in the 2nd District won't be known until next week, but election officials planned to begin counting the early ballots Friday, said David Phipps, Douglas County election commissioner.

This would mark the first time that Nebraska has split its electoral votes. Maine, the other state to award some of its electoral votes by Congressional District, has yet to do so.

Thursday Morning Update

Even though we know that the Democrats will control the executive and legislative branch, the 2008 election is not yet over, and the Obama people don't know exactly what kind of Congress they will be working with, as several races still hang in the balance:

Politico.com and FiveThirtyEight.com have just projected that Barack Obama will win reliably red North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes. Right now, Obama has 49.9% to McCain's 49.5% with 100% of the precincts reporting, yet Politico is the only major site or network to project a winner.

MSNBC has called Missouri for McCain, who leads Obama by 0.2% with 100% of the precincts reporting. If these two projections are valid, Obama will have won the electoral college 364-173 (Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district is still too close to call).

In the Senate, Democrat Jeff Merkley has been projected to narrowly beat out Republican Gordon Smith by The Oregonian. But three more races have yet to called.

In Minnesota, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by 477 votes out of 2.9 million cast, so the race is transitioning into a statewide automatic recount. The National Republican Senatorial Committee sent out several statements congratulating Coleman for his win, but both the Franken and Coleman campaigns have hired legal teams to represent them in the recount, a sign that this one is far from over. The recounts will begin in mid-November are might continue into December.

Alaska Senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens still leads Democrat Mark Begich by about 3,300 votes out of more than 208,000 cast, and with just 1% of precincts left to report. There are still at least 40,000 absentee ballots, 9,000 early voting ballots, and an undetermined number of questionable ballots that need to be counted, according to Roll Call. But things don't look good for Begich.

In Georgia, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss has not reached the 50% needed to win, so he will face Democrat Jim Martin in a run-off election on December 2. Organizers and volunteers on both sides have begun to buy plane tickets to come down to Georgia. This battle won't be for a 60th seat, but it will be a seat nonetheless.

In other news, about 133.3 million people cast ballots, or about 62.5% of eligible voters, according to George Mason University expert Michael McDonald. That's the highest turnout for any election since 1960, when 63.8% voted in the contest between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon.

Merkley Wins Oregon Senate Seat

According to the Portland Oregonian, Democrat Jeff Merkley has defeated Republican Sen. Gordon Smith for the closely contested Senate seat in Oregon.

As of right now, Merkley is 6,359 votes ahead of Smith with 78% of the precincts reporting, and most of the votes that are left to be counted are from more Democratic areas of the state.

The Democrats have now picked up six Senate seats, putting their total at 57 to the Republicans' 40. Three races--in Alaska, Minnesota and Georgia--are still too close to call. If by some miracle the Democrats win all three of those races, they will have their 60-seat filibuster-proof majority. But I wouldn't bet more than a dime on that happening.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Preliminary Senate Results

The real election night drama was and still is in the Senate. Right now, most of the networks have projected that the Democrats will get 56 seats (including the two independents) and the Republicans will get 40. Four races are still too close to call.

Perhaps the biggest story last night was the loss of Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole to Democrat Kay Hagan in North Carolina. Dole had run a nasty, culture-war type of race displaying Hagan as an atheist in a vicious and blatantly untrue ad. Well, it seemed to have backfired. Hagan defeated Dole 53% to 44% last night with 100% precincts reporting.

Former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire defeated Republican Sen. John Sununu last night 52% to 45% with 93% precincts reporting.

Sen. Roger Wicker held off Democrat Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi by a margin of 55% to 45%. Also, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell barely hung on to defeat Democrat Bruce Lunsford 53% to 47% in Kentucky.

And as expected, Democrats Mark Warner, and Tom and Mark Udall defeated their Republican opponents easily in Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico, respectively. These three races were for open seats and the Democrats picked up all of them.

Now, there's still four races that are too close to call: Minnesota, Oregon, Alaska, and Georgia. Here's the current totals for each of these races (asterisk denotes an incumbent).

MINNESOTA--100% Precincts Reporting
Coleman* (R): 42.0%
Franken (D): 42.0%
Notes: The votes are all counted here, and Coleman is up by 475 votes. But, that's close enough to trigger a statewide automatic recount, which will start in mid-November and could go on to December. We won't know the winner of this race for a while.

ALASKA--99.9% Precincts Reporting
Stevens* (R): 48.2%
Begich (D): 46.7%
Notes: Despite having been convicted on seven criminal charges last week, Ted Stevens looks like he will (narrowly) win re-election. He is up by 3,353 votes and almost all of the votes have been counted. If he is forced out of the Senate because of ethics charges, there will be a special election for his seat in 2010. Is it possible that Sarah Palin will run?

OREGON--73% Precincts Reporting
Smith* (R): 47.4%
Merkley (D): 46.9%
Notes: Smith leads Merkley by less than 7,000 votes, but there are still a lot of votes that have yet to be counted, and many of those votes are from more the Democratic counties.

GEORGIA--99% Precincts Reporting
Chambliss* (R): 49.8%
Martin (D): 46.8%
Notes: It looks as though Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley has siphoned off enough votes from Sen. Saxby Chambliss to keep his total percentage under 50%. Of course, Georgia law states that if no candidate gets to that 50% mark, a run-off election will be held between the top two candidates 4 weeks after election day, which in this case would be December 2. Allen Buckley is Jim Martin's best friend today, because now he will get a second shot at defeating Chambliss, although it will be very difficult for him to succeed.

Quick Election Night Roundup

Last night, Barack Obama became the first African American president-elect in United States history. And he did so by a fairly wide margin in comparison with the last two elections.

He won the popular vote by a fairly significant margin, 52% to 46% over John McCain nationwide, and he won almost every single battleground state.

The only battleground states he lost were Georgia, Montana, and West Virginia (if you can even call those states battlegrounds). McCain also appears on his way to winning Missouri, but it is very close and not quite all of the votes have been counted.

Obama won Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire by more than 10 points. He won Iowa by 9, Colorado by 8 and Virginia by 6 . And he squeaked by in Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina (has not been officially called yet for Obama, but he holds a lead there).

I'll be honest, it is a bit hard to write today as I'm feeling a bizarre mix of emotions. But don't worry, I'll be back with the full and final results in the next few days as well as several post-mortem posts on why Obama won and exit poll analysis and the like.

I'm just glad they called the election relatively early last night and there were no legal debacles as there were in the last two elections. I really can't tell you how relieved I am about that.

BARACK OBAMA ELECTED PRESIDENT

At 11:00 P.M. eastern time, the networks officially projected that Barack Obama would get the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

The current electoral count is Obama 338, McCain 156 according the CNN.com. Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Montana, and --get this--Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District are still too close to call. Alaska's polls just closed and it is too early to call.

CNN has the popular vote count at Obama 52% and McCain 47%.

It is very late, but I will have the full state-by-state election results for you tomorrow as well as an analysis of exit poll data over the next few days.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

State of the Race: 90 Minutes to Go

Well, it's finally here: election day. There have already been reports of long lines and voting problems, and I'm sure there's much more of that coming in the final few hours that the polls are open.

The first polls close at 6:00 P.M. eastern time in Indiana and Kentucky.

The good news for John McCain is that it is raining in Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina. Rain lowers turnout and lower turnout usually helps Republicans because low-income voters--who tend to be Democrats--have historically been more discouraged from voting based on the weather. Now, this year may be different, but any little thing that affects turnout could make a difference.

Karl Rove predicted that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain 338 to 200 in the electoral college, and he also said that McCain would hang on to Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri by a thread, which means that he thinks that these states could conceivably go to Obama.

The final electoral prediction map at RealClearPolitics.com is Obama 338, McCain 200 as well. They also predict that Obama will win the popular vote by 7.6%.

Electoral-Vote.com predicts that Obama will win 353-174, with 11 (Missouri) tied. FiveThirtyEight.com projects that Obama will win 353-185, and they project that Obama will win the popular vote by 6.1%.

Yesterday I predicted that Obama would win 359 electoral votes to McCain's 179. My big shockers were Montana and North Dakota, which I predicted would both go to Obama by small margins. I also predicted that Obama would win the popular vote by 5.2%.

But now, let's take one last look at the average of the polls for each of the 20 battleground states and my final projection based on these numbers:

Missouri (11)
--McCain +0.3
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.5
Florida (27)
--Obama +1.5
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.6
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.6
Ohio (20)--Obama +3.0
Montana (3)--McCain +3.5
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.6
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.1
Virginia (13)--Obama +4.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Colorado (9)
--Obama +6.0
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.8
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
South Dakota--McCain +8.7
West Virginia (5)--McCain +9.9
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.3
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.2
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.3

FINAL ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185


FINAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama +7.0


So the polls are showing that Missouri and North Carolina are going to be the tightest states tonight. They also expect the margins of victory in Florida, North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Virginia to be within five points.

In addition, they expect the margins of victory in Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, South Dakota, and West Virginia to be in 5-10 point range. They also seem to show that Obama will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Iowa by over 10 points.

Now, if the polls are systematically wrong, of course the above prediction will be off by a lot. But the polls have been relatively reliable right in the days before the last few elections.

I think I have analyzed enough for now. I will let the results speak for themselves. If you have not voted yet, please do so and get a spot in line before its too late!

I know you've already heard this, but whatever happens tonight will be historic. America could elect its first African American president, or it could elect its first female to the position of Vice President.

In fact, the primaries alone were incredibly historic. Barack Obama defeated the "inevitable" Hillary Clinton (and her husband), and John McCain came back from being written off by nearly everyone to claim the Republican nomination. There will be full chapters written about this election in history textbooks everywhere.

Thank you to all of those who have consistently (or inconsistently) read this blog over the past 11 months, and to those who have not been too judgmental or accusatory of the "non-partisan" claim at the top of the page. I honestly have tried my best to keep this site "fair and balanced." Whatever happens in the next 5-10 hours will profoundly affect the future of this country, for better or for worse.

Monday, November 3, 2008

State of the Race: 1 Day to Go

It's so close I can almost taste it. Only 20 more hours until the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky (6:00 EST).

We have 41 new state polls today. All I can say is that things do not look good for John McCain. Here are today's battleground state averages:

Missouri (11)--McCain +0.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.3
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.5
Florida (27)--Obama +2.3
Montana (3)--McCain +3.4
Ohio (20)--Obama +3.8
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.2
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.4
Virginia (13)--Obama +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.5
Colorado (9)
--Obama +6.1
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.2
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.7
South Dakota--McCain +8.7
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.3
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.9
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.3

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185


The national polls converged today and it looks like Barack Obama has about a 6-7 point lead. All 14 of the national polls (plus the Research 2000 tracking poll) have Obama up by 5-11 points.

None of the battleground states have shifted drastically since yesterday, but Obama appears to have improved his standing by a fraction of a point in a number of states. And yes, that is significant, because one half of a point in one state could be the difference between President Obama and President McCain.

It's looking pretty clear that Obama will carry of all the states that John Kerry won in 2004. Despite the McCain campaign's strategy and all of the hype, Pennsylvania just does not seem in play, barring divine intervention. McCain is down by 8 points there still, which is far outside the margin of error.

It's also fairly certain that Obama will win Iowa and New Mexico. If he wins all of the states I just mentioned, he will have 264 electoral votes, and would need 5 more to tie or 6 more to win.

He has a lot, and I mean a LOT or different ways of getting those 5 or 6 electoral votes. The easiest state to get him there is Colorado, followed by Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, or the combination of North Dakota and Montana.

If McCain loses Pennsylvania--and I really believe he will--he must win each and every one of those states. He is behind in many of those states going into election day, and does have a good shot of winning a few of them. But he will almost certainly not win all of them.

McCain's only hope now is that either the polls are all significantly wrong or that America is much more racist than everyone thinks it is and there is some kind of massive nationwide Bradley effect. And even that may not be enough to overcome the kind of deficit he has right now.

Let's just say--for kicks and giggles--that it's the best case scenario for McCain and the polls were way off and there's a Bradley effect and he does win Pennsylvania. He then only has 25 electoral votes of breathing room. Meaning that if Obama wins Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada--all states that he's up by 5 points or more in--he wins the election anyway. Or it could be any of the other must-win states for McCain that puts Obama over the top.

McCain has one, maybe two paths to 270. Obama has dozens. Let's just put it this way. If you're a McCain supporter, be afraid. Be very afraid.

I'll be back with my final "State of the Race" update sometime before 6:00 P.M. eastern time tomorrow. If you are eligible, please get out there and vote tomorrow!

My Presidential Election Predictions

Drumroll please. Here are my final predictions for the 20 battleground states as well as the national popular vote for the presidential election. The states are listed in alphabetical order. Here we go.

Arizona (10)--
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 47%
Notes: Obama will give McCain a bit of a scare here when the networks don't immediately call the state for McCain, but he will indeed carry his home state.

Colorado (9)
--
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 47%
Notes: Obama will benefit heavily from early voting and a hefty advantage in enthusiasm. Hispanic and younger voters will show up to the polls in unprecedented numbers here.

Florida (27)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%
Notes: Barack Obama will squeak out a win in here due to the impressive and unprecedented support he received from early voting. The networks will not project this state until late in the night, making sure they do not get this state wrong again. For the record, this state along with North Carolina were the hardest states to predict the winner in.

Georgia (15)--
John McCain: 50%
Barack Obama: 48%
Notes: An incredibly large surge in African American turnout won't be enough for Obama to steal this state away from McCain, but it'll be close. However, Obama will overperform the polls here like he did in the primaries. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr will get around 2% of the vote here in his home state--the best result he will get nationwide.

Indiana (11)--
John McCain: 51%
Barack Obama: 49%
Notes: This state is too red to change hands this election cycle. The undecideds in this state will swing to McCain at the last minute, although Obama will do well in Gary County and the northwest part of the state. I also predict that there will be a small Bradley effect here.

Iowa (7)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 45%

Notes: I don't know why the McCain campaign ever thought they could have won this state. Their candidate basically ignored the Iowa caucuses in 2000 and 2008, and he opposes subsidies for ethanol (and there are a lot of corn farmers in Iowa) while Obama basically lived here for a year before the caucuses in January.

Minnesota (10)--
Barack Obama: 55%
John McCain: 44%

Notes: The presidential race will not be close here and the networks will call it for Obama soon after the polls close at 9:00 Eastern time. The real race to watch in this state will be the three-way Senate race that could not be closer.

Missouri (11)--
John McCain: 50%
Barack Obama: 49%
Notes: This state will lose its status as a bellwether for the rest of the country. McCain will only very slightly edge out Obama here, and black voters in St. Louis and Kansas City will come out in huge numbers to support Obama.

Montana (3)--
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 47%

Notes: This state will be one the biggest shockers of the night. The rain that is expected there will cause many Republicans who are indifferent to McCain to stay home. Ron Paul, who is on the ballot as the state's Constitution Party candidate will receive 4% of the vote here, while Bob Barr will get 1%. That 5% that normally would have gone to McCain will give Obama just enough to win the state's three electoral votes.

Nevada (5)--
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 48%

Notes: A surge of Hispanic voters as well as massive turnout in the more liberal southern part of the state will propel Obama to victory here.

New Hampshire (4)--
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 46%

Notes: A statewide Democratic sweep will occur here on election day, much like it did in 2006. New Hampshire voters' frustration and hatred of the Bush administration will overrule their affection for John McCain dating back to the 2000 Republican primaries. But McCain will outperform the polls here because of his history with the state and his "maverick" status.

New Mexico (5)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 46%

Notes: Hispanics will be the big story here. They will come out in droves for Barack Obama by a three-to-one margin.

North Carolina (15)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%

Notes: Unlike Georgia, the immense surge in African American voters will be enough for Obama to take this state away from the Republican column. Also, the enthusiasm of Obama supporters during early voting will play heavily to his advantage. This was a very tough call for me, but I refuse to second guess myself about this prediction.

North Dakota (3)--
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 49%

Notes: This will be the other big election night surprise, and it will be insult to injury for John McCain. Obama will benefit heavily from same-day registration, which is one of the cornerstones of the state's voting tradition.

Ohio (20)--
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 49%

Notes: Even Joe the Plumber can't save John McCain in this, the swingiest of swing states. The hard toll the economy has had on state will overrule whatever inhibitions Ohioans will have about Barack Obama. Ohio, along with Indiana, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, will have a small Bradley effect, but it will not be significant enough to cause Obama to lose the state.

Pennsylvania (21)--
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 47%

Notes: McCain's last minute all-out effort in the state, coupled with a minor Bradley effect in central and western Pennsylvania, will fall short in denying Obama the Keystone state.

South Dakota (3)--
John McCain: 53%
Barack Obama: 46%
Notes: Unlike its partner to the north, South Dakota will stay firmly in the Republican column this time around.

Virginia (13)--
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 48%

Notes: Once again, the heavy African American turnout will make a huge difference in this new swing state. Obama will carry the Washington suburbs in northern Virginia by large margins and put the state's 13 electoral votes in the Democratic column for the first time since 1964.

West Virginia (5)--
John McCain: 56%
Barack Obama: 44%
Notes: Contrary to what many polls indicated, West Virginia was never in play. White voters (which make up the vast majority here) will end up voting for McCain in the end, despite their concerns about the economy. There will be a significant Bradley effect in West Virginia, a state where Obama got about a quarter of the vote during the primaries.

Wisconsin (10)--
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 45%

Notes: Dissatisfaction with President Bush and Republicans in general along with Obama's progressive and populist message will cause the Democrat to win this state easily.

Final Electoral Count:
Barack Obama: 359
John McCain: 179

Final Popular Vote:
Barack Obama: 52.3%
John McCain: 47.1%

Other: 0.6%

My Senate Predictions

Here are my official and final predictions for the seven most competitive Senate races in order from the closest to the most lopsided margin of victory. An asterisk denotes an incumbent. Here goes nothing.

Minnesota--
Al Franken (D): 44%
Norm Coleman (R)*: 43%
Dean Barkley (I): 13%

Georgia--
Saxby Chambliss (R)*: 49%
Jim Martin (D): 46%
Allen Buckley (L): 5%
(Note: The failure of any candidate to reach 50% will result in a run-off election between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin on Dec. 4)

North Carolina--
Kay Hagan (D)
: 52%
Elizabeth Dole (R)*: 48%

Kentucky--
Mitch McConnell (R)*: 53%
Bruce Lunsford (D): 47%

Mississippi (Special)--
Roger Wicker (R)*: 54%
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 46%

Oregon--
Jeff Merkley (D): 53%
Gordon Smith (R)*: 44%
David Brownlow (C): 3%

New Hampshire--
Jeanne Shaheen
(D): 55%
John Sununu (R)*: 44%

The New Senate:
Democrats: 57
Republicans: 41
Independents: 2

The Democrats will not reach the 60-seat threshold on election night, but in the Georgia run-off election in December, they will have an opportunity to pick up that 60th seat.

Senate Update: 1 Day to Go

Well, it's coming down to the wire in the Senate. The three closest races look like they're going to be in Minnesota, Georgia and North Carolina, and the Democrats need to win all three of those races if they want that 60-seat majority.

We've had 17 Senate polls since my last update. Here's the numbers for the final update that I'll be doing for the Senate:

Likely Democrat:

New Hampshire--Shaheen +9.1
This one appears to be all locked up for the Democrats. The only poll out since Saturday has Jeanne Shaheen up by 6 points over incumbent John Sununu. At this point, Shaheen just has to get all of her supporters out there to vote tomorrow.

Oregon--Merkley +5.4
I think the polls are low-balling Jeff Merkley here a little bit. Barring some unforeseen circumstances, he will defeat incumbent Gordon Smith and take his seat in the Senate.

North Carolina--Hagan +3.8
Mason-Dixon came out with a poll today that had incumbent Elizabeth Dole up by one point, which is the first time she has led in a very long time. But keep in mind that Mason-Dixon has had a Republican lean throughout the year. On the flip side, PPP--which leans to the left--came out with a poll that had Kay Hagan up by 7 points. My guess is the margin is somewhere in the middle, but this will be a fun race to watch tomorrow night.

Toss-Up:

Minnesota--Coleman* +1.1
This race will be the biggest cliffhanger of the night, and race continues to be as close as it can possibly get. Since my last update, there have been two polls of this race. One has Al Franken up by 4, the other has incumbent Norm Coleman up by 5. Independent candidate Dean Barkley continues to get around 15% in the polls, but that number should go down a bit.


Likely Republican:

Georgia--Chambliss*+4.0
Two polls came out of Georgia today, both showing incumbent Saxby Chambliss with a slight lead over incumbent Jim Martin. But here's the thing. Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley has been getting between 4 and 7% in the polls. If Martin can hold Chambliss to a 4-7 point margin and keep him under 50%, he can force a run-off election between just him and Chambliss on December 4.

Kentucky--
McConnell*+5.3
Challenger Bruce Lunsford is doing much better than expected in his quest to dethrone Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but it looks like McConnell will hang on to win this one--but not by much. The most recent poll for this race comes from SurveyUSA, and they give McConnell an 8-point lead over Lunsford.


Mississippi (Special)--
Wicker*+8.7
Republican Sen. Roger Wicker seems like he's well on his way to winning this one.
Although Ronnie Musgrove might theoretically benefit from a black turnout surge, Wicker is now winning a comparable percentage of the white vote to John McCain, which would ensure him victory.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

State of the Race: 2 Days to Go

We have 20 new state polls today. And with two days to go, it looks like John McCain is finally closing. But not enough. Here are the battleground state numbers:

North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.9
Missouri (11)--McCain +1.0
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.4
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.4
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.9
Ohio (20)--Obama +4.1
Montana (3)--McCain +4.4
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.1
Virginia (13)--Obama +5.1
Colorado (9)
--Obama +5.6
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.4
New Mexico (5)--Obama +7.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.9
South Dakota--McCain +9.4
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.2
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +10.4
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.4
Iowa (7)--Obama +12.9

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185


The national polls stayed relatively still today, and Obama still has about a 5 or 6-point lead nationally.

McCain ticked up about a point in North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania since yesterday's update. And it's a good thing too, because those are all states that are critical to a McCain's best case electoral scenario.


McCain's increases in these five states are due to the flurry of Mason-Dixon battleground state polls that were released today. They give McCain a 3-point lead in NC and a 2-point lead in OH. They also gave Obama a 5-point lead in CO, a 4-point lead in PA and a 3-point lead in VA.

Some other polls they released today were in Florida (O+2), Missouri (M+1), and Nevada (O+4).

Now, Mason-Dixon's polls have
leaned 2-3 points more toward McCain than the average of other polls taken in those states at the same time. This doesn't mean that they are biased or partisan. They are non-partisan, but they just have a different way of sampling the electorate than other pollsters, and they may turn out to be the most accurate on election day.

McCain also gets some more good numbers in Pennsylvania today. His deficit in the Morning Call tracker in down to 7 points, SurveyUSA has him down by 7 as well, and Rasmussen has him down by only 6. I'll keep an eye on the numbers coming out of this state tomorrow and Tuesday, but I still don't think that he will win the state. It very well could be close--even within 2 or 3 points--but I think he'll come short on election day.

The only state that Obama improved in was Iowa, where a Des Moines Register poll has him up by 17 points. And Ann Selzer, the pollster that conducted the poll, is usually pretty accurate when it comes to Iowa elections. But nonetheless, the McCain campaign thinks they have a shot there. McCain's campaign manager, Steve Schmidt, says that they're down by only a few points there based on internal polling. Somebody's gotta be wrong.

Expect a ton of polls to come out tomorrow, as is customary with the Mondays before election day. I will have a detailed analysis of those numbers as well as predictions for the 20 battleground states listed above on the morrow.

Some Early Voting Numbers

Here are some of the early voting numbers from battleground states (and Louisiana), courtesy of CNN:

North Carolina (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 1,092,687 (52.3%)
Republicans: 615,184 (29.6%)

Florida (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 1,532,200 (45.6%)
Republicans: 1,283,554 (38.2%)

Louisiana (as of 10/29):
Democrats: 156,084 (58.5%)
Republicans: 75,818 (28.4%)

Iowa (as of 10/29):
Democrats: 193,600 (48.3%)
Republicans: 114,637 (28.6%)

New Mexico (as of 10/30):
Democrats: 86,757 (53.4%)
Republicans: 53,490 (32.9%)

Colorado (as of 10/31):
Democrats: 488,575 (37.8%)
Republicans: 465,869 (35.9%)

So, Democrats are vastly outnumbering Republicans in early voting, even in solid red states like Louisiana. Republicans will probably come out in large numbers in states like Louisiana, North Carolina and Florida and close the gap, but these numbers are impressive for the Obama campaign and show that they have a large advantage in enthusiasm and get-out-the-vote programs.

If you want to see the numbers for all of the early voting states, click here.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Blacks Give Dems Edge in Early Florida Voting

The Miami Herald gives us a good run-down of early voting in Florida. Here are some highlights:

A huge increase in early voting has given Democrats a decided advantage over Republicans in Florida -- a major departure from statewide voting trends four years ago, according to a Miami Herald analysis of early and absentee ballots cast so far this year.


Through Thursday, Democrats cast 46 percent of the 3.4 million early and absentee votes in Florida, while Republicans cast 38 percent.


That's a big shift since 2004, when Democrats were outvoted 44 percent to 41 percent by Republicans in early and absentee ballots, according to a study of Florida voting data.


The recent Democratic gains have been most pronounced in early voting, where Democrats have outnumbered Republicans by 432,000 out of nearly two million voters.


Black voters have made the difference, accounting for 16 percent of the early and absentee voters so far -- with 86 percent of them registered Democrats. In 2004, black turnout for early and absentee voting was a bit more than 10 percent of the total.


By Thursday, early-voting numbers for the state already had smashed the total 2004 turnout by nearly 38 percent. Absentee ballots so far have also exceeded the total cast four years ago.


Already, nearly one-third of all registered Democrats and Republicans in Florida have cast a ballot. Duval elections supervisor Jerry Holland said he expects as many as 45 percent of the state's votes could be in before Election Day.

State of the Race: 3 Days to Go

It was a slow polling day, with only 15 new state polls. Here's today's battleground state averages with three days to go until election day:

Missouri (11)--McCain +0.7
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.3
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.9
Florida (27)--Obama +2.7
Montana (3)--McCain +4.1
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.2
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.9
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.0
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.7
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.3
Colorado (9)
--Obama +6.3
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +8.2
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.8
New Mexico (5)--Obama +9.1
South Dakota--McCain +9.1
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.7
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.6
Minnesota (10)
--Obama +12.3

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185


The national polls stayed still today, and Obama still has about a 6-point lead.

I know you'll all help me in welcoming South Dakota to our very exclusive battleground list! No applause needed. Especially if your first name is John and your last name is McCain. A new Rasmussen poll puts McCain up by only 9 points in the state. I don't think that Barack Obama will win here unless it is a nationwide landslide, but still, my model shows that South Dakota is a closer race that New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota, so I felt obliged to put it on there.

McCain gained about a point in Missouri since yesterday's update, but that was just a retrospective reaction from the favorable numbers he got yesterday in the state.

The real story today is Pennsylvania. Three polls came out and confirmed that McCain is indeed closing in this state. The Morning Call tracking poll gives Obama an 8-point lead, ARG gives Obama a 6-point lead, and Rasmussen gives Obama only a 4-point lead--but the latter's methodology and internals were fishy (as I wrote about earlier).

McCain jumped up about a point and a half since yesterday in the Keystone State. And it's a good thing because he now absolutely needs it to become president. He is going to lose Colorado since more than half of the state has voted already and the number of Democrats has dwarfed the number of Republicans who have already voted.

So even if McCain wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, Indiana, Georgia, and Virginia, it won't be enough for him to reach 270 electoral votes. He still needs Pennsylvania. But that is still no easy feat--he is still down by about 8 points, but I would expect that to close up a bit more in the next few days to around 6 or 7.

Since there has been a lot of talk about McCain "closing" nationally and in a bunch of swing states. So I looked into how much he had actually gained ground in the 18 battleground states (sorry Arizona and South Dakota) in the past week:

McCain gained 4 points in Indiana, 2.6 points in Pennsylvania, 2.1 points in Missouri, 1.6 points in Montana, and 1.4 points in West Virginia.

Obama gained 3.7 points in New Hampshire, 2.7 points in Nevada, 1.5 points in Minnesota, and 1.3 points in North Dakota.

The rest of the states did not change by more than one point in the past week in either direction. McCain has gained one point nationally in the last week.

Let's take a look at where each candidate has gained ground in the last month:

McCain has gained ground in only 1 of those 18 states in the last month: West Virginia. And that was only by one point.

Obama has gained significant ground in many of the other states such as North Dakota (+9.4), Georgia (+4.5), Nevada (+3.8), Wisconsin (+3.7), New Hampshire (+3.4), Minnesota (+3.2), Ohio (+3.0), Virginia (+2.9), Montana (+2.8), Colorado (+2.5), North Carolina (+1.5), and Missouri (+1.1) in the last month.

The rest of the states did not change by more than one point in the past month in either direction. Obama has gained 2.4 points nationally in the last month.

So in the past week, McCain has made some good gains in states like Indiana, Pennsylvania and Missouri. But over the past month, he has not really closed well in any state.

He still has some major ground to make up--not just in Pennsylvania, but in his other must-win states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Virginia. And he's just about out of time.

Weather on Election Day

I thought I'd look at what the weather forecast is for Tuesday because in the past, bad weather has driven town turnout and generally favored Republicans, who are generally more enthusiastic about their candidate. But this year, it looks like Democrats are more enthusiastic about their candidate and more likely to stick it out in the rain (or snow) to vote for their man.

So here's the weather forecast for all of the states in which a competitive presidential or senatorial race is expected:

Arizona--Clear; 51-83°
Colorado--Clear in the east, rainy in the west; 45-65°
Florida--Rainy on the eastern coast, clear everywhere else; 74-83°
Georgia--Rainy on the coast, clear everywhere else; 65-73°
Indiana--Clear; 66-74°
Iowa--Clear, showers in Sioux City; 64-70°
Kentucky--Clear, 69-74°
Michigan--Clear; 58-66°
Minnesota--Rainy; 57-63°
Mississippi--Clear; 72-78°
Missouri--Clear; 68-74°
Montana--Rainy; 41-53°
Nevada--Rainy in the northeast, clear everywhere else
New Jersey--Clear; 61-66°
New Mexico--Clear, 57-80°
North Carolina--Rainy on the coast, clear everywhere else; 61-68°
North Dakota--Rainy; 56-60°
Ohio--Clear; 64-73°
Oregon--Rainy; 43-53°
Pennsylvania--Clear; 63-67°
South Dakota--Rainy; 59-64°
Texas--Clear; 74-84°
Virginia--Clear; 64-68°
Washington--Rainy; 45-52°
West Virginia--Clear; 61-72°
Wisconsin--Rainy in the north, clear everywhere else; 59-66°


So overall, the weather looks pretty good for election day.

The only states where there might be problems with the weather throughout the state are Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, and Washington.

States that might have rain in a certain part of the state are Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

The bad weather might affect turnout in southeastern states of Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. It is expected to rain on the coasts and on the eastern part of these states, which tend to lean Democratic. The rain may drive turnout down, depending on how enthusiastic the Democrats are.

Another place where the rain might have an effect is Montana, where the Democrats are much more enthusiastic. The Republican have no hope at the Governor, Senate or House levels, and Republicans might just decide to stay home, causing Barack Obama to win the state's three electoral votes.

Other than that, the weather should not play a huge role on election day--thank God.