Senate Update: 1 Day to Go

Well, it's coming down to the wire in the Senate. The three closest races look like they're going to be in Minnesota, Georgia and North Carolina, and the Democrats need to win all three of those races if they want that 60-seat majority.

We've had 17 Senate polls since my last update. Here's the numbers for the final update that I'll be doing for the Senate:

Likely Democrat:

New Hampshire--Shaheen +9.1
This one appears to be all locked up for the Democrats. The only poll out since Saturday has Jeanne Shaheen up by 6 points over incumbent John Sununu. At this point, Shaheen just has to get all of her supporters out there to vote tomorrow.

Oregon--Merkley +5.4
I think the polls are low-balling Jeff Merkley here a little bit. Barring some unforeseen circumstances, he will defeat incumbent Gordon Smith and take his seat in the Senate.

North Carolina--Hagan +3.8
Mason-Dixon came out with a poll today that had incumbent Elizabeth Dole up by one point, which is the first time she has led in a very long time. But keep in mind that Mason-Dixon has had a Republican lean throughout the year. On the flip side, PPP--which leans to the left--came out with a poll that had Kay Hagan up by 7 points. My guess is the margin is somewhere in the middle, but this will be a fun race to watch tomorrow night.

Toss-Up:

Minnesota--Coleman* +1.1
This race will be the biggest cliffhanger of the night, and race continues to be as close as it can possibly get. Since my last update, there have been two polls of this race. One has Al Franken up by 4, the other has incumbent Norm Coleman up by 5. Independent candidate Dean Barkley continues to get around 15% in the polls, but that number should go down a bit.

Likely Republican:

Georgia--Chambliss*+4.0
Two polls came out of Georgia today, both showing incumbent Saxby Chambliss with a slight lead over incumbent Jim Martin. But here's the thing. Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley has been getting between 4 and 7% in the polls. If Martin can hold Chambliss to a 4-7 point margin and keep him under 50%, he can force a run-off election between just him and Chambliss on December 4.

Kentucky--McConnell*+5.3
Challenger Bruce Lunsford is doing much better than expected in his quest to dethrone Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but it looks like McConnell will hang on to win this one--but not by much. The most recent poll for this race comes from SurveyUSA, and they give McConnell an 8-point lead over Lunsford.

Mississippi (Special)--Wicker*+8.7
Republican Sen. Roger Wicker seems like he's well on his way to winning this one. Although Ronnie Musgrove might theoretically benefit from a black turnout surge, Wicker is now winning a comparable percentage of the white vote to John McCain, which would ensure him victory.