State of the Race: 90 Minutes to Go

Well, it's finally here: election day. There have already been reports of long lines and voting problems, and I'm sure there's much more of that coming in the final few hours that the polls are open.

The first polls close at 6:00 P.M. eastern time in Indiana and Kentucky.

The good news for John McCain is that it is raining in Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina. Rain lowers turnout and lower turnout usually helps Republicans because low-income voters--who tend to be Democrats--have historically been more discouraged from voting based on the weather. Now, this year may be different, but any little thing that affects turnout could make a difference.

Karl Rove predicted that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain 338 to 200 in the electoral college, and he also said that McCain would hang on to Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri by a thread, which means that he thinks that these states could conceivably go to Obama.

The final electoral prediction map at RealClearPolitics.com is Obama 338, McCain 200 as well. They also predict that Obama will win the popular vote by 7.6%.

Electoral-Vote.com predicts that Obama will win 353-174, with 11 (Missouri) tied. FiveThirtyEight.com projects that Obama will win 353-185, and they project that Obama will win the popular vote by 6.1%.

Yesterday I predicted that Obama would win 359 electoral votes to McCain's 179. My big shockers were Montana and North Dakota, which I predicted would both go to Obama by small margins. I also predicted that Obama would win the popular vote by 5.2%.

But now, let's take one last look at the average of the polls for each of the 20 battleground states and my final projection based on these numbers:

Missouri (11)--McCain +0.3
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.5
Florida (27)--Obama +1.5
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.6
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.6
Ohio (20)--Obama +3.0
Montana (3)--McCain +3.5
Georgia (15)--McCain +3.6
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.1
Virginia (13)--Obama +4.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.8
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.0
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.8
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
South Dakota--McCain +8.7
West Virginia (5)--McCain +9.9
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.3
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +11.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.2
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.3

FINAL ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185

FINAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama +7.0

So the polls are showing that Missouri and North Carolina are going to be the tightest states tonight. They also expect the margins of victory in Florida, North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Virginia to be within five points.

In addition, they expect the margins of victory in Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, South Dakota, and West Virginia to be in 5-10 point range. They also seem to show that Obama will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Iowa by over 10 points.

Now, if the polls are systematically wrong, of course the above prediction will be off by a lot. But the polls have been relatively reliable right in the days before the last few elections.

I think I have analyzed enough for now. I will let the results speak for themselves. If you have not voted yet, please do so and get a spot in line before its too late!

I know you've already heard this, but whatever happens tonight will be historic. America could elect its first African American president, or it could elect its first female to the position of Vice President.

In fact, the primaries alone were incredibly historic. Barack Obama defeated the "inevitable" Hillary Clinton (and her husband), and John McCain came back from being written off by nearly everyone to claim the Republican nomination. There will be full chapters written about this election in history textbooks everywhere.

Thank you to all of those who have consistently (or inconsistently) read this blog over the past 11 months, and to those who have not been too judgmental or accusatory of the "non-partisan" claim at the top of the page. I honestly have tried my best to keep this site "fair and balanced." Whatever happens in the next 5-10 hours will profoundly affect the future of this country, for better or for worse.