Something Smells Funny in Alaska

It really does, and I don't think it's that dead moose that Sarah Palin shot from a helicopter. Wouldn't you expect that turnout in Alaska to increase with their first native daughter on a national ticket and an extremely close Senate race? Yeah, I would think so too.

But according to initial reports, turnout in Alaska is down 14% from 2004. On top of that, the polls taken right before presidential election showed John McCain up by 14 points, but he won by 25 points. The polls also showed that Democratic Senate candidate Mark Begich ahead by between 8-22 points. But with most of the votes counted, convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (above) narrowly leads Begich. Those same polls also showed Democrat Ethan Berkowitz leading Rep. Don Young--another Alaskan politician under investigation--but Young is handily beating Berkowitz.

So there seems to be an across-the-board polling failure in Alaska, while the polls were very accurate everywhere else in the country. I don't really know what to make of it, but something isn't right.

Meanwhile, Ted Stevens leads Mark Begich by 3,353 votes with 100% of the precincts reporting, but there are currently at least 9,500 early votes remaining to be counted in Alaska. In addition, there are more than 50,000 absentee votes. Lastly, there are at least 18,000 "questioned" ballots, which consist principally of voters who may have cast ballots away from their home precincts. Begich has led so far among early and absentee votes, meaning that it is very possible that he could close the gap or even pull ahead of Stevens. So this race is still a toss-up. Nate Silver has a good piece on this race.

Senate Republicans and Democrats alike are calling for Stevens's expulsion from the Senate during the lame duck session--regardless of whether or not he is re-elected. If they get the two-thirds majority that is needed to expel him, guess who gets to appoint a new senator? You guessed it: Sarah Palin.

And no, Palin cannot appoint herself to the Senate. But, she can resign as governor so Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell will then become governor, and then have him appoint her to the Senate. Thus, she could become a more central figure in national politics and stay in the spotlight leading up to her probable run for the presidency in 2012. There is a lot more riding on this seat than people think.

And with all of this corruption and ethics scandals and reverse Bradley effect with convicted felons going on in America's frozen tundra, I am considering joining the Alaskan Independence Party.