Senate Update: 3 Days to Go

Yesterday, we had 31 Senate polls, the same as the number of state polls for the presidency. From those numbers, we have a pretty good idea of where the most competitive races stand.

As a result of a Research 2000 poll that showed Mark Begich leading convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens by 22 points in Alaska, I have removed that race from my list of competitive races. So, now we're down to seven races. Again, I've divided those races into three categories: Likely Democrat, Toss-Up, and Likely Republican. Here are the numbers:

Likely Democrat:

New Hampshire--Shaheen +9.2
It doesn't appear as though Republican incumbent John Sununu will make any last minute surges. Shaheen jumped 1.3% since yesterday's update. The race was polled heavily in the past few days, and they overwhelming conclude that this race is on the verge of being safe for the Democrats.

Oregon--Merkley +5.4
Jeff Merkley's lead has been confirmed by Research 2000 and Rasmussen. Nate Silver thinks think it's more likely that Merkley will win by double-digits than Gordon Smith will hold on to his seat.

North Carolina--Hagan +4.6
Kay Hagan responded to Elizabeth Dole's nasty ad implying that Hagan is an atheist with an ad of her own. But the original Dole ad seems to have backfired. Hagan jumped 2.4% since yesterday's update. Research 2000 puts Hagan 5 points ahead of Dole and a CNN/Time poll gives her a 9-point lead. This race does remain competitive, but I am confident in my decision to move this race to the "Likely Democrat" category.

Toss-Up:

Minnesota--Coleman* +1.0
This race could not be closer, and it is now the only true toss-up left. The only poll released since our last update from Research 2000 shows incumbent Norm Coleman with a 3-point lead over Al Franken. Nate Silver says that this race may be fairly independent from the trend nationwide and that he could see Coleman holding onto his seat even given a fairly bad night for the Republicans overall. NBC's Chuck Todd thinks Franken is the very slight favorite, but he also thinks Independent Dean Barkley will play a major role in who wins. Honestly, I am baffled by this race (especially given the third party wild card) and am just going to play it safe and call it a toss-up.

Likely Republican:

Georgia--Chambliss* +3.9
This race remains the best opportunity for the Democrats to pick up that 60th seat, but it is looking more and more out of reach for them. Incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss jumped up by about a point since yesterday, but the race is still very close. If Jim Martin can hold Chambliss to under 50%, he could force a run-off election on December 4. Can you imagine if the Democrats win 59 seats in the Senate and there was a run-off election here where they have a chance to pick up that 60th seat? The whole country would be focused on this one race, and it would be absolute pandemonium. Research 2000 puts Chambliss one point ahead of Martin.

Kentucky--McConnell* +5.1
This race remains virtually unchanged since yesterday. Research 2000 puts Sen. Mitch McConnell 3 points ahead of challenger Bruce Lunsford, and it is still winnable for the Democrats. The biggest wild card will be Democratic turnout on election day in this solid red state.

Mississippi (Special)--Wicker* +8.7
The Obama campaign does not have the extensive get-out-the-vote efforts in this state as it does in other states with competitive Senate races. I don't think that a surge in African American turnout will be enough for challenger Ronnie Musgrove to flip this seat, and Sen. Roger Wicker seems to be consolidating his advantage among whites. Research 2000 gives Wicker a 7-point lead over Musgrove.

So with three days to go, I project that the Democrats will have 56 seats to the Republicans' 42. If the Democrats want to get that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority, they better make a last-minute push in Minnesota and Georgia and make sure that their turnout is massive.