State of the Race: 1 Day to Go

It's so close I can almost taste it. Only 20 more hours until the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky (6:00 EST).

We have 41 new state polls today. All I can say is that things do not look good for John McCain. Here are today's battleground state averages:

Missouri (11)--McCain +0.6
North Carolina (15)--Obama +0.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +1.3
Indiana (11)--McCain +1.5
Florida (27)--Obama +2.3
Montana (3)--McCain +3.4
Ohio (20)--Obama +3.8
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.2
Arizona (10)--McCain +4.4
Virginia (13)--Obama +4.9
Nevada (5)--Obama +5.5
Colorado (9)--Obama +6.1
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +7.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.2
West Virginia (5)--McCain +8.7
South Dakota--McCain +8.7
Minnesota (10)--Obama +10.3
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +10.9
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.1
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.3

TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 353
McCain: 185

The national polls converged today and it looks like Barack Obama has about a 6-7 point lead. All 14 of the national polls (plus the Research 2000 tracking poll) have Obama up by 5-11 points.

None of the battleground states have shifted drastically since yesterday, but Obama appears to have improved his standing by a fraction of a point in a number of states. And yes, that is significant, because one half of a point in one state could be the difference between President Obama and President McCain.

It's looking pretty clear that Obama will carry of all the states that John Kerry won in 2004. Despite the McCain campaign's strategy and all of the hype, Pennsylvania just does not seem in play, barring divine intervention. McCain is down by 8 points there still, which is far outside the margin of error.

It's also fairly certain that Obama will win Iowa and New Mexico. If he wins all of the states I just mentioned, he will have 264 electoral votes, and would need 5 more to tie or 6 more to win.

He has a lot, and I mean a LOT or different ways of getting those 5 or 6 electoral votes. The easiest state to get him there is Colorado, followed by Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, or the combination of North Dakota and Montana.

If McCain loses Pennsylvania--and I really believe he will--he must win each and every one of those states. He is behind in many of those states going into election day, and does have a good shot of winning a few of them. But he will almost certainly not win all of them.

McCain's only hope now is that either the polls are all significantly wrong or that America is much more racist than everyone thinks it is and there is some kind of massive nationwide Bradley effect. And even that may not be enough to overcome the kind of deficit he has right now.

Let's just say--for kicks and giggles--that it's the best case scenario for McCain and the polls were way off and there's a Bradley effect and he does win Pennsylvania. He then only has 25 electoral votes of breathing room. Meaning that if Obama wins Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada--all states that he's up by 5 points or more in--he wins the election anyway. Or it could be any of the other must-win states for McCain that puts Obama over the top.

McCain has one, maybe two paths to 270. Obama has dozens. Let's just put it this way. If you're a McCain supporter, be afraid. Be very afraid.

I'll be back with my final "State of the Race" update sometime before 6:00 P.M. eastern time tomorrow. If you are eligible, please get out there and vote tomorrow!