Where They Are and Where They've Been

NBC/Wall Street Jounal co-pollster Peter Hart gave us this crunchy nougat to think about today on NBC's First Read:

“Forget the polls, just look at what the candidates are doing and where they are spending money.” At this time in 2004, he notes, Kerry-Edwards were campaigning in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Florida. In 2000, Gore-Lieberman were in the states of Missouri and Ohio, as well as in Florida. But in 2008, Obama and Biden AREN'T campaigning in Pennsylvania, Minnesota or Wisconsin. Instead, they're in Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, as well as the perennials of Ohio and Florida. “You do not have to read poll numbers -- just look at their travel schedule.”

I think what Hart is saying is really interesting. Of course, I wouldn't forget the polls entirely, but where the candidates spend their last week really speaks volumes about where they think they have a shot of winning.

John McCain and Sarah Palin have spent/will spend this week in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.

Barack Obama and Joe Biden have spent/will spend this week in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

The McCain-Palin campaign seems to be focused on the swing states with the most electoral votes (FL, OH, PA) and they seem worried about their standing in Virginia and North Carolina. Their internal polls probably have them slightly down or slightly head in these states.

Notice that neither McCain or Palin is campaigning in the West, which means that they are probably either giving up or taking their chances on Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

Meanwhile, Obama and Biden are campaigning in a wide variety of states across the country, from Nevada to Pennsylvania. It looks like their internal polls probably show a tighter race in Pennsylvania and Iowa, so they want to shore up their support their in the last week. Their internals are also showing a very close race in Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia. Obama will be making his last campaign stop in Virginia on Monday night, showing that he thinks that this will be one of the most important races on Tuesday.