Obama Sweeps; Huck Hangs On

This weekend, Barack Obama pummeled Hillary Clinton in the the Louisiana primary and the Washington, Nebraska, and Maine caucuses. Here are the numbers.

Washington:
1.) Obama 68%
2.) Clinton 31%

Nebraska:
1.) Obama 67%
2.) Clinton 32%

Louisiana:
1.) Obama 57%
2.) Clinton 36%

Maine:
1.) Obama 59%
2.) Clinton 40%

Obama not only won this weekend, he won big. Most media organizations believe that he will be up by about 40 pledged delegates after all of these states are all fully accounted for.

It is difficult to say what this means. He was supposed to win all of these states, but not by this large of a margin, and he took away a lot more delegates from her.

I think this gives him some momentum, especially if he keeps winning up until March 4th, when Texas and Ohio vote (who are likely to favor Hillary).

He is favored to win in the next seven contests, and the delegates could really begin to accumulate, making him the mathematical front-runner.

There are two things that I will be keeping my eye on over the next few weeks:
1.) Obama's margins of victory and the corresponding delegate totals
2.) Where the majority of the superdelegates go

If the superdelegates begin to trend towards Obama, it means that the establishment, as well as the people in most of the states, will be on his side going into an increasingly likely brokered convention.

But I'll talk more about the possibility of a brokered convention as August draws nearer and the results from the rest of the primaries come in.

Expect to see a strong trend for Obama in the weeks before March 4th. But don't expect it to be enough for him to clinch the nomination.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee did surprisingly well this weekend in Washington, Kansas, and Louisiana.

Washington:
1.) McCain 26%
2.) Huckabee 24%
3.) Paul 21% (Woah!)

Kansas:
1.) Huckabee 60%
2.) McCain 24%
3.) Paul 11%

Louisiana:
1.) Huckabee 43%
2.) McCain 42%
3.) Paul 5%

As we all know, John McCain is the presumptive Republican nominee. These results don't really matter in the overall delegate count. Huckabee would need a lot of help from his old buddy God to make him the nominee.

As usual, CNN and MSNBC are making a huge deal out of something not at all significant. These are all basically beauty contests that mean nothing and just drag on the primaries while the Republicans should be building up their war chest and preparing for the tough general election to come.

But one thing that did strike me about these results was the very strong opposition to McCain within his own party. So many conservatives are lukewarm at best about McCain, and that really showed this weekend.

And you've got to hand it to Mike Huckabee. He has run a fantastic campaign without money, name recognition, and status in the hierarchy of the Republican party. And right now he's going toe-to-toe with one of the most well-known Republicans in the country.

He even challenged McCain in the moderate/liberal state of Washington, which is way outside of his heartland/southern base. Even though he won't get the nomination, he's run a hell of a campaign and has earned my respect.

But McCain, the presumptive nominee, has a lot of work to do after these primaries are over. First, he has to reunite the broken Republican party, and then he has to run the best campaign in recent history in order to upset the Democrats in November with much less enthusiasm, participation, and cash than his opponent.

And the longer this in-fighting continues between McCain and Huckabee (though it is very civil), the weaker the party becomes in the long-run.

Conservatives need to bite the bullet and line up behind John McCain--quick--because each day that these primaries continue, it's one less day that they can focus on the Democrats in the general election, which is already an uphill battle.