With Blagojevich Impeached, IL Senate Battle Becomes Waiting Game

Gov. Rod Blagojevich was impeached by a vote of 114-1 in the Illinois House yesterday. The Illinois Senate will start the impeachment trial next week, and Blagojevich has vowed to fight every step of the way.

However, I'm getting really sick of hearing and talking about Blagojevich and his impending trial, so from now on, I'm just going to focus on his Senate appointee, former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris, and the Illinois Senate seat that hangs in the balance.

Meanwhile, the Illinois Supreme Court ruled that Secretary of State Jesse White could not be forced to sign Roland Burris' Senate appointment certificate, but it also ruled that White's signature was not necessary to have him officially seated.

Sen. Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), who was looking chummy with Burris just last week, made it clear that despite the court's decision Burris would not be seated without White's signature.

But after the court ruling, White signed the certification and verified Burris' appointment, putting Durbin and Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid in a tricky position. They said they are going to consult with lawyers to see what to do next, but they are probably just stalling for time.

They would like to wait until after Blagojevich's impeachment trial is over (in which he is certain to be convicted) and have Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) make the Senate appointment. But that process could drag into mid-February, and it will be hard to keep Burris' appointment at bay for another month or more.

Meanwhile, it appears clear that Illinoisans oppose seating Burris. A new poll from Glengariff Group says that they are opposed to seating Burris by 53-32 margin, while 72% of them want either a special election or an appointment by Quinn to fill the Senate seat.

Personally, I don't think that Reid and Durbin can keep the Burris appointment in limbo for another month, so I believe that he will be seated before the Blagojevich impeachment trial is finished.

I think that the biggest reason that they don't want Burris to be seated is because they're scared of what will happen in 2010. Burris will be 73 on election day, and the majority of Senate appointees have a really hard time getting elected.

On top of that, since most Illinoisans don't want Burris to be seated, most of them probably have and will continue to hold an unfavorable view of him. If Burris wins the Democratic nomination, a strong challenger like Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) could easily defeat him. The Democrats would then be losing a seat that they should have held easily.

The solution to prevent that kind of situation would be to pose a strong primary challenge to Burris in 2010. Andrew Tanenbaum of Electoral-Vote.com makes a case for Dan Seals, a potential (young and black) challenger "who ran for Congress in 2006 and 2008 and lost narrowly both times."