Trio of Senate Polls

A new Research 2000 poll shows incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) leading outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 49% to 40% in a hypothetical match-up. At this point, it seems as though Schwarzenegger could be the only Republican to unseat Boxer, whose approval-disapproval rating has dropped to 48-46.

But Schwarzenegger is already a very well-known and polarizing figure in California, and thus has little room to improve his numbers. His approval ratings are worse than Boxer's (42% approve and 51% disapprove). Also, his moderate nature would certainly draw a strong challenge from the right in the Republican primary.

Meanwhile, this is all just speculation at this point, as Schwarzenegger has not yet made his intentions clear about his candidacy. The only Republican to announce his candidacy is Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who was not included in the poll. It is widely thought that he wouldn't stand much against Boxer in the general election.

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Meanwhile, a new ARG poll pitted incumbent Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) against New Hampshire's two Democratic representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter. Gregg beats Hodes 47% to 40% but crushes Shea-Porter 54% to 35%.

Even though ARG has a spotty track record, the fact that Hodes does far better against Shea-Porter against Gregg and that Hodes keeps Gregg under 50% should be a clear sign to the DSCC that Hodes would be the stronger candidate. Among undeclared (independent) voters, Gregg only leads Hodes 46-42.

The poll also shows that Gregg draws the support of 22% of Democrats against Hodes, which shows room for improvement but also shows that Gregg has strong support among New Hampshire's moderate base.

It's a pity the poll didn't pit Gregg against Gov. John Lynch (D), the least likely to run but probably the strongest challenger if he does so.

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And finally, the results of a new Rasmussen poll completely contradict a PPP poll released last Wednesday of the New York Senate race that showed Caroline Kennedy (D) leading Rep. Peter King (R) by only 2%. The Rasmussen survey showed that Kennedy would hold a wide lead over King, by a margin of 51% to 33%.

This Rasmussen poll seems to make more sense than the PPP poll. Kennedy carries one of the most famous and recognizable last names in politics and should be a darling of the Democratic base, and King is a relatively unknown figure in the state in a party that is clearly the minority in the state. Based on those circumstances, the Rasmussen poll which shows Kennedy far ahead, seems to be more accurate. But with such a wide discrepancy it's still hard to tell.

Hillary Clinton's Senate confirmation hearing is set for Tuesday and she is expected to be confirmed easily, so Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will have to make a decision too about who to appoint to the seat. The other major contender for the seat in state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, but apparently Paterson is considering 10 to 15 candidates for the job.