KY: Mongiardo to Challenge Bunning

Kentucky Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo is the first Democrat to formally announce that he will be challenging the unpopular and underfunded incumbent, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), in 2010.

Mongiardo was the Democratic nominee that faced off against Bunning in 2004, but back then he was only a little-known state senator. No one thought the race was going to be competitive, but despite the lack of attention and funds from the DSCC and being vastly outspent by Bunning, Mongiardo just barely lost to him, 51% to 49%.

Now Mongiardo, if he is the Democratic nominee, is much more well-known and has a higher profile in the state as the lieutenant governor, and he will receive plenty of cash and support from the state and national party, including that of the DSCC.

In a complete reversal from 2004, Bunning seems to be the one who is underfunded. He filed a campaign finance report last week which listed only $27,357 in campaign contributions between October 1 and December 1, and showed that he only had $150,000 on hand. As the Cincinnati Enquirer notes, “the next closest Republican had about $900,000 in the bank." Bunning has said that he will need to raise $10 million to win reelection. Yikes.

For those of us that have been following the 2010 Senate elections closely, it is clear that Bunning is the most vulnerable incumbent in next year's election. So vulnerable in fact that national Republicans have been urging him not to run for reelection, thinking that they will have a better shot of holding the seat with another Republican on the ticket. It is very rare that a party wants one of its incumbents to quit, but Bunning is so politically weak that he is an exception.

Shortly after the 2008 elections, Bunning announced that he would run for reelection in 2010 but few are holding him to his word, given his age (he will be 79 on Election Day) and his awful fundraising. If he doesn't retire, Republicans should field a very strong primary challenger to take him down. If that fails, they should be very very worried.

But whether he runs or retires, Mongiardo's candidacy ensures that this race will be one of the most competitive in the country, and arguably the Democrats' best pick-up opportunity.

That said, Mongiardo could face fierce competition in the Democratic primary, as state Attorney General Jack Conway and state Auditor Crit Luallen have been mulling a run. Rep. Ben Chandler has also been mentioned as a potential candidate, but is considered less likely to run than the other three Democrats.