Democrats May Get 60 Senate Seats After All

Roll Call reports that the Obama administration is considering appointing Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) to the position of commerce secretary. No decision has yet been made to fill the position, but the top two contenders are thought to be Gregg and Symantec CEO John Thompson.

This would fill a vacancy that has lingered since the previous appointee for the position, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, withdrew his nomination.

Of course, if Gregg is agrees to become commerce secretary, Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) would likely appoint a Democrat to take his place. That would give the Democrats 60 seats and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, assuming Al Franken prevails in the Minnesota recount (which is more a matter of "when" than "if" at this point).

Republican Senate officials will do nothing short of begging him to not taking the job, because their party would be in the super minority and even more powerless than they are now. Already, a Republican operative wrote to the Huffington Post to say, "No way that Gregg takes it."

Even if Gregg does not decide to take the job, his seat will still likely be in danger in 2010, as Democratic Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter are eying the race and are thought to be potentially very strong candidates to unseat Gregg (with the emphasis on Hodes).

Update: Politico reports that Gregg has confirmed he is a candidate for the Commerce position.

“I am aware that my name is one of those being considered by the White House for Secretary of Commerce, and am honored to be considered, along with others, for the position,” he said in a statement. “Beyond that there is nothing more I can say at this time.”

There are more and more reports that Gov. Lynch, given his moderate-to-conservative politics, might appoint a Republican placeholder to the seat until the 2010 election to avoid controversy.

The LA Times suggests that Gregg would not give up his seat unless Lynch agrees to appoint a Republican to his seat. Meanwhile, Reuters quotes a Democratic source who says that Lynch would be “more likely to appoint a Republican.”

Nate Silver points out that appointing Gregg to the position of commerce secretary might not be all that good for the Democrats in the long-run and that getting 60 Senate seats this soon is overrated:

Moreover, if the Democrats actually get the 60th seat, it will be much harder for them to play the obstructionism card in 2010 -- and much easier, conversely, for the Republicans to play the divided government card.

Now, let's not be too contrarian here: if this happens, it is almost certainly a net gain for Democrats. But it might be relatively small one, given that:

1a) Gregg was voting with the Democrats reasonably often anyway;

1b) His replacement, conversely, would likely be someone fairly moderate who wouldn't vote with the Democrats 100% of the time;

2) Gregg, who has been a pretty reliable fiscal conservative, would presumably have at least some influence shaping policy from the Commerce Department;

3) The perceived benefit to the Democrats from getting a 60th seat is greater than the real one, increasing the risk that they will be seen as overreaching by the time that 2010 rolls around.