IL: Poll Shows Burris in Decent Position For 2010

A new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) leading two potential challengers in a 2010 Democratic primary--Rep. Jan Schakowsky and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias--and two potential Republican general election opponents--Reps. Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam.

The poll also matches up Kirk and Roskam in a hypothetical Republican primary match-up, and pits Schakowsky and Giannoulias against the two Republicans as well. Here are the numbers:

Democratic Primary
Burris--26%
Schakowsky--12%
Giannoulias--11%

Republican Primary
Kirk--27%
Roskam--17%

General Election
Burris--37%
Kirk--30%

Burris--38%
Roskam--25%

Schakowsky--36%
Kirk--30%

Schakowsky--37%
Roskam--25%

Giannoulias--38%
Kirk--30%

Giannoulias--38%
Roskam--25%

These numbers show Burris in a relatively decent position for the 2010 elections, considering his strong and inevitable tie with Rod Blagojevich. His favorable/unfavorable rating is at a surprisingly high 35/35, while name recognition for the other two Democrats is very low, so there is room for them to improve as they become better known statewide.

The head-to-head general election match-ups show that Kirk is more electable than Roskam, but that any of the three Democrats would prevail over either Republican at this point. Most (78%) of the Illinois voters know enough about Kirk, the likely Republican nominee, to form an opinion of him, and many of them (41%) hold an unfavorable view of him, so excuses of lack of name recognition don't apply.

That said, someone like Kirk or Roskam could still unseat Burris. There is still a large percentage of undecided voters in all of the match-ups, so it is still very early to tell what kind of shape Burris will be in.