But then, in a complete 48-point reversal, a new Dittman Research poll shows Murkowski leading Palin 57% to 33% in a hypothetical match-up between the two among Republican primary voters.
So what the hell is going on here?
Well first, there's reason to be suspicious of the Dittman poll. It turns out it was commissioned by conservative radio host Dan Fagan, not KTUU, the local TV station who's name was in the title of the poll. And Fagan is most certainly not a fan of Palin and is a big fan of Murkowski, who he knows personally. So I wouldn't put my complete faith in this poll.
Second, Alaska has proven to be the most difficult state in the country to poll. In the 2008 election, the polls were off by a long shot in the presidential, Senate, and House races. Here's Nate Silver's theory:
[Alaska's] residents are in a strange time zone and keep strange schedules; it has very high rates of cellphone usage; it has highly unusual demographics. Several pollsters, including Research 2000, had no idea that Don Young would hang on to defeat Ethan Berkowitz in November, nor that Ted Stevens would come so close to Mark Begich.
So in sum, I have learned not to trust any poll from Alaska, but I'd say the Research 2000 poll is more viable and legitimate. But the real preference of Alaska Republicans in a Palin v. Murkowski race is probably somewhere in the middle of these two nearly polar opposite polls.
If I were Sarah Palin, I would think long and hard about challenging Murkowski for her Senate seat and giving up her own seat in the governor's mansion leading up to a 2012 run.
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