Dems in National Stalemate

Last night was in fact very predictable. Every self-respecting pundit, blogger, and adviser knew that last night would not resolve anything on the Democratic side (including yours truly).

But let's get past the spin and look at what really happened last night and what it means for the marathon that we have just begun.

Last night, Barack Obama carried what he needed to carry. He won most of the south and the heartland pretty handily, and even upset Hillary in New Mexico, Missouri, Delaware, and Connecticut, although they were close.

He had the money and he certainly used it to its fullest potential. He is now virtually tied with Hillary in delegates, and should do well in the states voting in the next two weeks.

But lets' take a look at the big picture. Obama did what he had to do last night, and that was to keep up (in delegates) with Hillary Clinton.

Now let's take a look at Hillary's side. Her campaign is trying to spin last night as a big win for her, considering she was up against the endorsements of Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and many local leaders and unions who supported Obama.

She claims that she upset him in Massachusetts, California, and New Jersey, where polls were starting to trend Obama's way.

Baloney. She was expected to win in all of these states and what's more, was the favorite across the board a few weeks ago.

To be fair, she did hold her own in the delegate-rich states of New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, and California--all blue states in the general election.

She suppressed some of Obama's national momentum and is now neck-and-neck with him in delegates. But, she has a few advantages going forward.

She is getting the majority of the superdelegates, which vote independently from their state, and she may have a case in counting Michigan and Florida's delegates, where she won handily.

But if I were Hillary Clinton, I would be worried. Obama's got her beat on money, all from personal donors who are by no means maxed out. Most of Hillary's donors have maxed out already, and word on the street is that she is pouring $5 Million of her own money into her campaign. She's already getting to be financially desperate.

Also, the calendar ahead is not looking good for her. On Saturday, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington state should go to Obama. On Tuesday, Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. should also go for Obama. Bad news for Hillary.

She is now looking ahead all the way to March 4 to get even again when Texas and Ohio vote. They offer up almost 400 delegates combined, which could really put her in the driver's seat or leave her in the dust.

Let's look at the big picture again. Last night really was a tie. Hillary and Obama held their own, and are about to embark upon a marathon.

Time and money are against Hillary, but she's got the establishment, the majority of the superdelegates, and the name recognition.

Obama's got the time, money, energy, and momentum, but still faces an uphill battle in the weeks and months to come.

And don't forget about John Edwards. An endorsement from him for either Hillary or Obama may have a profound impact upon the race.