Obama Is Anything But Inevitable

Even though Barack Obama has taken over the role of front-runner in the fight for the Democratic nomination, he is by no means inevitable.

This has been an especially easy month for Obama, with contests that favored him demographically and ideologically. That will end after the Wisconsin and Hawaii contests that take place on Tuesday.

Even though he now leads in most delegate counts (including those counting superdelegates), he faces his biggest challenge on March 4th, when the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio vote.

Common sense tells us that Obama will have a great deal of momentum after winning ten contests in a row leading up to that day. But common sense has time and again proved to be wrong during this campaign season.

Both of these states favor Hillary Clinton demographically. Ohio has a large working-class population and Texas has a large Latino population--two groups that generally favor Clinton.

And polls show that voters don't base their decision off of how other states vote. Remember New Hampshire?

The big question coming into that day is whether Obama's momentum will materialize in votes and delegates.

And even if Obama manages to carry both states, the delegate total will still be close enough so that neither candidate will reach the 2,025 delegates that are needed to clinch the nomination without the help of superdelegates.

He will need to convince the superdelegates--Democratic party officials and members of Congress that vote independently from the states they represent--that he is the most electable candidate come November.

Also, Clinton will argue to the end that the delegates from Michigan and Florida should be seated, despite their violation of party rules to move up their primaries before February 5th.

Obama currently has the advantage, but Clinton is not a quitter. She has wanted this for too long to just roll over and die--not even if it means tearing the party apart.

Obama is now the undisputed front-runner, but has a tough road ahead, and there are several scenarios in which he could easily lose his advantage. I think we're far past the point of inevitability in this grueling vicious fight for the nomination--a fight that could go on all the way until August.