Is Obama the Front-Runner?

Most pundits believe that the Super Tuesday results basically ended in a tie between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. I think otherwise.

Yes, the popular vote was evenly divided up, and almost everything was divided right down the middle.

But you have to look past the numbers here and really look at what happened overall on Tuesday and what's next.

In my opinion, despite surging poll numbers for Obama (which we know can't be trusted), Hillary was still the heavy favorite coming into Super Tuesday.

She was strong in most states, and it was thought that she would compete closely in the states Obama won, and that she would trounce Obama in her strongholds.

But it turned out to be the opposite. Obama finished closer than expected in New York and New Jersey, and he trounced her in the heartland and split the delegate vote down the middle.

Tuesday was supposed to be Hillary's shining moment. The dynamics of the day played to her strengths with delegate-rich blue states, and Edwards supporters were supposed to help her out in the South and Midwest. But no dice.

Obama kept up with her and now has an advantage in the states between now and March 4th. Let's take a look at them.

LOUISIANA--Obama should win pretty handily here with the help of the sizable black population, and the post-Hurricane Katrina mentality of Democrats should favor him as the more anti-establishment candidate.

NEBRASKA, WASHINGTON, MAINE--Obama has won seven of the eight caucuses so far. His excellent grassroots and local support (and cash) should help him carry these states pretty handily.

MARYLAND, VIRGINIA, D.C.--The large black population in each of these contests should favor Obama overwhelmingly. Clinton may steal Virginia but Obama should rake in most of the votes and a lot of the delegates from these contests.

WISCONSIN--This state's progressive mentality and open primary, where independents can vote, should favor Obama overall.

HAWAII--One of Obama's home states. He should win it handily.

In all nine of these states, Obama is the favorite. I think he'll win at least seven of them, but probably more.

Even thought the delegate counts will remain about the same, he will have a lot of momentum going into the important March 4th contests of Ohio and Texas. And that kind of momentum is something that could easily tip the race in his favor.

Even though the Super Tuesday results didn't tell us anything numerically, Obama really emerged as the winner because he cleared the way for the contests to come. He's going to be a juggernaut going into March 4th and Hillary should have a tough time stopping him.

I believe that Obama has now taken Hillary's place as the front-runner in this race, at least for the time being.