This morning on NBC's "Meet the Press," Ralph Nader once again announced that he will run for president as a third-party candidate.
He said he wishes to bring issues to the table that have been largely ignored by the two major political parties like single payer health care, stopping corporate greed, and further rights for labor unions.
Many Democrats still hold a grudge against him for costing Al Gore the 2000 election by taking many key votes away from him in Florida and New Hampshire. He won 2.7% of the vote nationwide as the Green Party candidate.
He did not make as big of a splash when he ran as an independent in 2004, receiving just 0.3% of the national vote. His presence almost went unnoticed that year.
Now, he is running again as an independent, and will likely take away votes from Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
If the election becomes very close and comes down to one two states--like it did in 2000 and 2004--and he causes the Democrats to lose again, he will never be forgiven.
Now, for my opinion. If you are a supporter of Ralph Nader, please stop reading now.
Ralph Nader is nothing but an attention-deprived selfish nuisance who looks to spoil the election yet again for the Democrats.
I think I speak for all Democrats--and most Americans--when I say that Ralph Nader has no business in running for president and should stay out of presidential politics forever.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Friday, February 22, 2008
Clinton Holds Back in Texas Debate
Last night, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton met for their 19th debate in Austin, Texas--an event sponsored by CNN and Univision.
Hillary was behind coming into the debate, and needed to attack Obama and keep him on the defensive last night.
But instead, she passed up several opportunities where she could have done just that. She focused mainly on policy differences with Obama, but did not really go after him enough.
However, there was one exception. Recently, the Clinton camp accused Obama of plagiarism when he nearly mimicked a speech by Deval Patrick, the governor of Massachusetts, who is also the Obama campaign's national co-chairman.
When the issue of this alleged plagiarism came up, Hillary said "I think that if your candidacy is going to be about words, then they should be your own words."
A few moments later, she came up with this zinger: "That's not change you can believe in, that's change you can xerox." This remark was heckled and greeted with boos from the audience, and you could really tell that she had rehearsed it ahead of time. You could also tell that she immediately regretted saying it.
Although this attempt did not go over very well, she really found her voice in her closing statement, where she talked about her perseverance and her emotional encounter with an American soldier who was wounded in Iraq.
If it weren't for that last statement, I would have proclaimed Obama the clear winner of that debate. But because of that statement, she made it a draw.
Obama really did what he needed to do last night. He made no mistakes, and to me, seemed much more presidential and confident than he had been in previous debates.
He had always been outmatched by Hillary when it came to debates, but he really came through, and prevented Hillary from getting the usual boosts from debates.
Hillary needed a decisive victory in last night's debate--like the one she had in New Hampshire. But instead, she drew even, and that's not good enough. If she keeps on pulling even, she will lose. She needs to find some consistent message that resonates with voters before it's too late.
Hillary was behind coming into the debate, and needed to attack Obama and keep him on the defensive last night.
But instead, she passed up several opportunities where she could have done just that. She focused mainly on policy differences with Obama, but did not really go after him enough.
However, there was one exception. Recently, the Clinton camp accused Obama of plagiarism when he nearly mimicked a speech by Deval Patrick, the governor of Massachusetts, who is also the Obama campaign's national co-chairman.
When the issue of this alleged plagiarism came up, Hillary said "I think that if your candidacy is going to be about words, then they should be your own words."
A few moments later, she came up with this zinger: "That's not change you can believe in, that's change you can xerox." This remark was heckled and greeted with boos from the audience, and you could really tell that she had rehearsed it ahead of time. You could also tell that she immediately regretted saying it.
Although this attempt did not go over very well, she really found her voice in her closing statement, where she talked about her perseverance and her emotional encounter with an American soldier who was wounded in Iraq.
If it weren't for that last statement, I would have proclaimed Obama the clear winner of that debate. But because of that statement, she made it a draw.
Obama really did what he needed to do last night. He made no mistakes, and to me, seemed much more presidential and confident than he had been in previous debates.
He had always been outmatched by Hillary when it came to debates, but he really came through, and prevented Hillary from getting the usual boosts from debates.
Hillary needed a decisive victory in last night's debate--like the one she had in New Hampshire. But instead, she drew even, and that's not good enough. If she keeps on pulling even, she will lose. She needs to find some consistent message that resonates with voters before it's too late.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Clinton Loses Ten in a Row
Barack Obama completed his post-Super Tuesday February sweep last night with convincing victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii.
Wisconsin:
1.) Obama 58%
2.) Clinton 41%
Hawaii:
1.) Obama 76%
2.) Clinton 24%
These numbers from Wisconsin truly don't spell out the true horror that the Clinton campaign faces. Obama won half of the female vote, won convincingly among whites, and made significant inroads among other of Clinton's core constituency while holding his constituencies strong.
Despite the fact that the Clinton campaign significantly lowered expectations in Wisconsin, she did spend a good deal of money and time in the state.
And Wisconsin, demographically, should have favored her. There was a large number of white voters, many of them working-class, that should have turned out in support for her. But as we have seen in the past ten contests, Obama has eroded Hillary's core groups.
To be fair, Obama did have the support of Governor Jim Doyle and did spend a lot more money in the state. But nonetheless, it was an impressive victory.
Now I'm not going to lie to you, last night was not that significant. Most of us knew that Obama would win. But what is surprising is, once again, the margin of victory. He won by 17 points in Wisconsin and 52 in Hawaii.
I think that last night's results make Hillary's path to the nomination even steeper. Now she needs to win big in Ohio and Texas on March 4th--at least 60% to 40% over Obama--to keep up with him among pledged delegates, which should be no easy task considering his strong momentum.
Expect her to go very negative on Obama over the next two weeks as she tries to stop the Obamania that seems to be spreading all across the country.
Wisconsin:
1.) Obama 58%
2.) Clinton 41%
Hawaii:
1.) Obama 76%
2.) Clinton 24%
These numbers from Wisconsin truly don't spell out the true horror that the Clinton campaign faces. Obama won half of the female vote, won convincingly among whites, and made significant inroads among other of Clinton's core constituency while holding his constituencies strong.
Despite the fact that the Clinton campaign significantly lowered expectations in Wisconsin, she did spend a good deal of money and time in the state.
And Wisconsin, demographically, should have favored her. There was a large number of white voters, many of them working-class, that should have turned out in support for her. But as we have seen in the past ten contests, Obama has eroded Hillary's core groups.
To be fair, Obama did have the support of Governor Jim Doyle and did spend a lot more money in the state. But nonetheless, it was an impressive victory.
Now I'm not going to lie to you, last night was not that significant. Most of us knew that Obama would win. But what is surprising is, once again, the margin of victory. He won by 17 points in Wisconsin and 52 in Hawaii.
I think that last night's results make Hillary's path to the nomination even steeper. Now she needs to win big in Ohio and Texas on March 4th--at least 60% to 40% over Obama--to keep up with him among pledged delegates, which should be no easy task considering his strong momentum.
Expect her to go very negative on Obama over the next two weeks as she tries to stop the Obamania that seems to be spreading all across the country.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Why is Huckabee Staying In?
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has played out his role in the race for the Republican nomination. So why doesn't he leave already?
Well, this is a very good question. At first I thought he was just trying to make his case to be McCain's running-mate. And after he lost the Virginia primary, I thought he would butt out and allow McCain to officially wrap up the nomination.
But he didn't. He stayed in, and is still determined to be the nominee. The McCain camp pointed out that it is almost statistically impossible for Huckabee to get the nomination, saying he would need "123% of the remaining delegates."
Also, insiders of the McCain campaign said that it is highly unlikely that McCain would pick Huckabee as a running-mate at this point because he would not appeal to fiscal conservatives at the time of a recession.
I also once thought that Huckabee was hanging in there for the sake of the party, so Romney supporters and other conservatives could have a temporary conservative choice before eventually backing McCain.
But he has proved me wrong once again, and is (selfishly) vowing to fight on, at least until the Texas primary on March 4th. He obviously thinks he still has a chance to win.
The Republican establishment and conservative leaders have been calling for his withdrawal since Super Tuesday so Republicans could officially move beyond the primaries and focus on November.
But now, he is just being a nuisance. He has no chance to get the nomination, or to become McCain's running-mate, and is hurting the party. He's also spoiling the chance of a future bid for president by angering the Republican establishment and the party as a whole.
So frankly, I have no clue as to why Huck is staying in. If you do, please enlighten me.
It's always a virtue to know when to quit.
Well, this is a very good question. At first I thought he was just trying to make his case to be McCain's running-mate. And after he lost the Virginia primary, I thought he would butt out and allow McCain to officially wrap up the nomination.
But he didn't. He stayed in, and is still determined to be the nominee. The McCain camp pointed out that it is almost statistically impossible for Huckabee to get the nomination, saying he would need "123% of the remaining delegates."
Also, insiders of the McCain campaign said that it is highly unlikely that McCain would pick Huckabee as a running-mate at this point because he would not appeal to fiscal conservatives at the time of a recession.
I also once thought that Huckabee was hanging in there for the sake of the party, so Romney supporters and other conservatives could have a temporary conservative choice before eventually backing McCain.
But he has proved me wrong once again, and is (selfishly) vowing to fight on, at least until the Texas primary on March 4th. He obviously thinks he still has a chance to win.
The Republican establishment and conservative leaders have been calling for his withdrawal since Super Tuesday so Republicans could officially move beyond the primaries and focus on November.
But now, he is just being a nuisance. He has no chance to get the nomination, or to become McCain's running-mate, and is hurting the party. He's also spoiling the chance of a future bid for president by angering the Republican establishment and the party as a whole.
So frankly, I have no clue as to why Huck is staying in. If you do, please enlighten me.
It's always a virtue to know when to quit.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Obama Is Anything But Inevitable
Even though Barack Obama has taken over the role of front-runner in the fight for the Democratic nomination, he is by no means inevitable.
This has been an especially easy month for Obama, with contests that favored him demographically and ideologically. That will end after the Wisconsin and Hawaii contests that take place on Tuesday.
Even though he now leads in most delegate counts (including those counting superdelegates), he faces his biggest challenge on March 4th, when the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio vote.
Common sense tells us that Obama will have a great deal of momentum after winning ten contests in a row leading up to that day. But common sense has time and again proved to be wrong during this campaign season.
Both of these states favor Hillary Clinton demographically. Ohio has a large working-class population and Texas has a large Latino population--two groups that generally favor Clinton.
And polls show that voters don't base their decision off of how other states vote. Remember New Hampshire?
The big question coming into that day is whether Obama's momentum will materialize in votes and delegates.
And even if Obama manages to carry both states, the delegate total will still be close enough so that neither candidate will reach the 2,025 delegates that are needed to clinch the nomination without the help of superdelegates.
He will need to convince the superdelegates--Democratic party officials and members of Congress that vote independently from the states they represent--that he is the most electable candidate come November.
Also, Clinton will argue to the end that the delegates from Michigan and Florida should be seated, despite their violation of party rules to move up their primaries before February 5th.
Obama currently has the advantage, but Clinton is not a quitter. She has wanted this for too long to just roll over and die--not even if it means tearing the party apart.
Obama is now the undisputed front-runner, but has a tough road ahead, and there are several scenarios in which he could easily lose his advantage. I think we're far past the point of inevitability in this grueling vicious fight for the nomination--a fight that could go on all the way until August.
This has been an especially easy month for Obama, with contests that favored him demographically and ideologically. That will end after the Wisconsin and Hawaii contests that take place on Tuesday.
Even though he now leads in most delegate counts (including those counting superdelegates), he faces his biggest challenge on March 4th, when the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio vote.
Common sense tells us that Obama will have a great deal of momentum after winning ten contests in a row leading up to that day. But common sense has time and again proved to be wrong during this campaign season.
Both of these states favor Hillary Clinton demographically. Ohio has a large working-class population and Texas has a large Latino population--two groups that generally favor Clinton.
And polls show that voters don't base their decision off of how other states vote. Remember New Hampshire?
The big question coming into that day is whether Obama's momentum will materialize in votes and delegates.
And even if Obama manages to carry both states, the delegate total will still be close enough so that neither candidate will reach the 2,025 delegates that are needed to clinch the nomination without the help of superdelegates.
He will need to convince the superdelegates--Democratic party officials and members of Congress that vote independently from the states they represent--that he is the most electable candidate come November.
Also, Clinton will argue to the end that the delegates from Michigan and Florida should be seated, despite their violation of party rules to move up their primaries before February 5th.
Obama currently has the advantage, but Clinton is not a quitter. She has wanted this for too long to just roll over and die--not even if it means tearing the party apart.
Obama is now the undisputed front-runner, but has a tough road ahead, and there are several scenarios in which he could easily lose his advantage. I think we're far past the point of inevitability in this grueling vicious fight for the nomination--a fight that could go on all the way until August.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Obama Overwhelms Clinton in Potomac Primaries
Barack Obama is on a roll. After winning this weekend's five contests handily, he added three more to his win column last night: Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland. Here's last night's final tally.
Virginia:
Obama 64%
Clinton 35%
Washington D.C.:
Obama 75%
Clinton 24%
Maryland:
Obama 60%
Clinton 37%
He was expected to win all of these contests, but not by this much. He trounced her in almost every single category and demographic with voters from these states.
He is now on a eight-state winning streak, and is expected to win Wisconsin and Hawaii next weekend. His momentum and delegate total--which just surpassed Hillary's last night--cannot be ignored.
If I were Hillary Clinton, I would be nervous. He has won every contest since Super Tuesday handily, has a lot of momentum going into the contests of the next few weeks, and is raking in a lot more cash than she is--and it shows no sign of slowing down.
To be fair, these contests haven't exactly been tailor-made for her. But she should not have lost states like Washington and Virginia by such a large margin. To make up for this and to appease her donors and contributors, she replaced her campaign manager.
But her deputy campaign manager stepped down voluntarily yesterday. In addition, she loaned $5 million of her own money to her campaign in attempt to keep up with Barack Obama's incredible fundraising ability.
To me, these all seem like signs of weakness and reorganization within the Clinton campaign. She is now solely focused on the contests of Texas and Ohio that take place on March 4th. Most analysts and pundits agree that she needs to do quite well in those states to stay afloat.
She needs those states to be a firewall against the incredible momentum of Barack Obama, as he be going into those contests with ten straight wins. And that might prove to be too much for Hillary.
But like I've said since Iowa: never underestimate a Clinton.
Virginia:
Obama 64%
Clinton 35%
Washington D.C.:
Obama 75%
Clinton 24%
Maryland:
Obama 60%
Clinton 37%
He was expected to win all of these contests, but not by this much. He trounced her in almost every single category and demographic with voters from these states.
He is now on a eight-state winning streak, and is expected to win Wisconsin and Hawaii next weekend. His momentum and delegate total--which just surpassed Hillary's last night--cannot be ignored.
If I were Hillary Clinton, I would be nervous. He has won every contest since Super Tuesday handily, has a lot of momentum going into the contests of the next few weeks, and is raking in a lot more cash than she is--and it shows no sign of slowing down.
To be fair, these contests haven't exactly been tailor-made for her. But she should not have lost states like Washington and Virginia by such a large margin. To make up for this and to appease her donors and contributors, she replaced her campaign manager.
But her deputy campaign manager stepped down voluntarily yesterday. In addition, she loaned $5 million of her own money to her campaign in attempt to keep up with Barack Obama's incredible fundraising ability.
To me, these all seem like signs of weakness and reorganization within the Clinton campaign. She is now solely focused on the contests of Texas and Ohio that take place on March 4th. Most analysts and pundits agree that she needs to do quite well in those states to stay afloat.
She needs those states to be a firewall against the incredible momentum of Barack Obama, as he be going into those contests with ten straight wins. And that might prove to be too much for Hillary.
But like I've said since Iowa: never underestimate a Clinton.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Obama Sweeps; Huck Hangs On
This weekend, Barack Obama pummeled Hillary Clinton in the the Louisiana primary and the Washington, Nebraska, and Maine caucuses. Here are the numbers.
Washington:
1.) Obama 68%
2.) Clinton 31%
Nebraska:
1.) Obama 67%
2.) Clinton 32%
Louisiana:
1.) Obama 57%
2.) Clinton 36%
Maine:
1.) Obama 59%
2.) Clinton 40%
Obama not only won this weekend, he won big. Most media organizations believe that he will be up by about 40 pledged delegates after all of these states are all fully accounted for.
It is difficult to say what this means. He was supposed to win all of these states, but not by this large of a margin, and he took away a lot more delegates from her.
I think this gives him some momentum, especially if he keeps winning up until March 4th, when Texas and Ohio vote (who are likely to favor Hillary).
He is favored to win in the next seven contests, and the delegates could really begin to accumulate, making him the mathematical front-runner.
There are two things that I will be keeping my eye on over the next few weeks:
1.) Obama's margins of victory and the corresponding delegate totals
2.) Where the majority of the superdelegates go
If the superdelegates begin to trend towards Obama, it means that the establishment, as well as the people in most of the states, will be on his side going into an increasingly likely brokered convention.
But I'll talk more about the possibility of a brokered convention as August draws nearer and the results from the rest of the primaries come in.
Expect to see a strong trend for Obama in the weeks before March 4th. But don't expect it to be enough for him to clinch the nomination.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee did surprisingly well this weekend in Washington, Kansas, and Louisiana.
Washington:
1.) McCain 26%
2.) Huckabee 24%
3.) Paul 21% (Woah!)
Kansas:
1.) Huckabee 60%
2.) McCain 24%
3.) Paul 11%
Louisiana:
1.) Huckabee 43%
2.) McCain 42%
3.) Paul 5%
As we all know, John McCain is the presumptive Republican nominee. These results don't really matter in the overall delegate count. Huckabee would need a lot of help from his old buddy God to make him the nominee.
As usual, CNN and MSNBC are making a huge deal out of something not at all significant. These are all basically beauty contests that mean nothing and just drag on the primaries while the Republicans should be building up their war chest and preparing for the tough general election to come.
But one thing that did strike me about these results was the very strong opposition to McCain within his own party. So many conservatives are lukewarm at best about McCain, and that really showed this weekend.
And you've got to hand it to Mike Huckabee. He has run a fantastic campaign without money, name recognition, and status in the hierarchy of the Republican party. And right now he's going toe-to-toe with one of the most well-known Republicans in the country.
He even challenged McCain in the moderate/liberal state of Washington, which is way outside of his heartland/southern base. Even though he won't get the nomination, he's run a hell of a campaign and has earned my respect.
But McCain, the presumptive nominee, has a lot of work to do after these primaries are over. First, he has to reunite the broken Republican party, and then he has to run the best campaign in recent history in order to upset the Democrats in November with much less enthusiasm, participation, and cash than his opponent.
And the longer this in-fighting continues between McCain and Huckabee (though it is very civil), the weaker the party becomes in the long-run.
Conservatives need to bite the bullet and line up behind John McCain--quick--because each day that these primaries continue, it's one less day that they can focus on the Democrats in the general election, which is already an uphill battle.
Washington:
1.) Obama 68%
2.) Clinton 31%
Nebraska:
1.) Obama 67%
2.) Clinton 32%
Louisiana:
1.) Obama 57%
2.) Clinton 36%
Maine:
1.) Obama 59%
2.) Clinton 40%
Obama not only won this weekend, he won big. Most media organizations believe that he will be up by about 40 pledged delegates after all of these states are all fully accounted for.
It is difficult to say what this means. He was supposed to win all of these states, but not by this large of a margin, and he took away a lot more delegates from her.
I think this gives him some momentum, especially if he keeps winning up until March 4th, when Texas and Ohio vote (who are likely to favor Hillary).
He is favored to win in the next seven contests, and the delegates could really begin to accumulate, making him the mathematical front-runner.
There are two things that I will be keeping my eye on over the next few weeks:
1.) Obama's margins of victory and the corresponding delegate totals
2.) Where the majority of the superdelegates go
If the superdelegates begin to trend towards Obama, it means that the establishment, as well as the people in most of the states, will be on his side going into an increasingly likely brokered convention.
But I'll talk more about the possibility of a brokered convention as August draws nearer and the results from the rest of the primaries come in.
Expect to see a strong trend for Obama in the weeks before March 4th. But don't expect it to be enough for him to clinch the nomination.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee did surprisingly well this weekend in Washington, Kansas, and Louisiana.
Washington:
1.) McCain 26%
2.) Huckabee 24%
3.) Paul 21% (Woah!)
Kansas:
1.) Huckabee 60%
2.) McCain 24%
3.) Paul 11%
Louisiana:
1.) Huckabee 43%
2.) McCain 42%
3.) Paul 5%
As we all know, John McCain is the presumptive Republican nominee. These results don't really matter in the overall delegate count. Huckabee would need a lot of help from his old buddy God to make him the nominee.
As usual, CNN and MSNBC are making a huge deal out of something not at all significant. These are all basically beauty contests that mean nothing and just drag on the primaries while the Republicans should be building up their war chest and preparing for the tough general election to come.
But one thing that did strike me about these results was the very strong opposition to McCain within his own party. So many conservatives are lukewarm at best about McCain, and that really showed this weekend.
And you've got to hand it to Mike Huckabee. He has run a fantastic campaign without money, name recognition, and status in the hierarchy of the Republican party. And right now he's going toe-to-toe with one of the most well-known Republicans in the country.
He even challenged McCain in the moderate/liberal state of Washington, which is way outside of his heartland/southern base. Even though he won't get the nomination, he's run a hell of a campaign and has earned my respect.
But McCain, the presumptive nominee, has a lot of work to do after these primaries are over. First, he has to reunite the broken Republican party, and then he has to run the best campaign in recent history in order to upset the Democrats in November with much less enthusiasm, participation, and cash than his opponent.
And the longer this in-fighting continues between McCain and Huckabee (though it is very civil), the weaker the party becomes in the long-run.
Conservatives need to bite the bullet and line up behind John McCain--quick--because each day that these primaries continue, it's one less day that they can focus on the Democrats in the general election, which is already an uphill battle.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Is Obama the Front-Runner?
Most pundits believe that the Super Tuesday results basically ended in a tie between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. I think otherwise.
Yes, the popular vote was evenly divided up, and almost everything was divided right down the middle.
But you have to look past the numbers here and really look at what happened overall on Tuesday and what's next.
In my opinion, despite surging poll numbers for Obama (which we know can't be trusted), Hillary was still the heavy favorite coming into Super Tuesday.
She was strong in most states, and it was thought that she would compete closely in the states Obama won, and that she would trounce Obama in her strongholds.
But it turned out to be the opposite. Obama finished closer than expected in New York and New Jersey, and he trounced her in the heartland and split the delegate vote down the middle.
Tuesday was supposed to be Hillary's shining moment. The dynamics of the day played to her strengths with delegate-rich blue states, and Edwards supporters were supposed to help her out in the South and Midwest. But no dice.
Obama kept up with her and now has an advantage in the states between now and March 4th. Let's take a look at them.
LOUISIANA--Obama should win pretty handily here with the help of the sizable black population, and the post-Hurricane Katrina mentality of Democrats should favor him as the more anti-establishment candidate.
NEBRASKA, WASHINGTON, MAINE--Obama has won seven of the eight caucuses so far. His excellent grassroots and local support (and cash) should help him carry these states pretty handily.
MARYLAND, VIRGINIA, D.C.--The large black population in each of these contests should favor Obama overwhelmingly. Clinton may steal Virginia but Obama should rake in most of the votes and a lot of the delegates from these contests.
WISCONSIN--This state's progressive mentality and open primary, where independents can vote, should favor Obama overall.
HAWAII--One of Obama's home states. He should win it handily.
In all nine of these states, Obama is the favorite. I think he'll win at least seven of them, but probably more.
Even thought the delegate counts will remain about the same, he will have a lot of momentum going into the important March 4th contests of Ohio and Texas. And that kind of momentum is something that could easily tip the race in his favor.
Even though the Super Tuesday results didn't tell us anything numerically, Obama really emerged as the winner because he cleared the way for the contests to come. He's going to be a juggernaut going into March 4th and Hillary should have a tough time stopping him.
I believe that Obama has now taken Hillary's place as the front-runner in this race, at least for the time being.
Yes, the popular vote was evenly divided up, and almost everything was divided right down the middle.
But you have to look past the numbers here and really look at what happened overall on Tuesday and what's next.
In my opinion, despite surging poll numbers for Obama (which we know can't be trusted), Hillary was still the heavy favorite coming into Super Tuesday.
She was strong in most states, and it was thought that she would compete closely in the states Obama won, and that she would trounce Obama in her strongholds.
But it turned out to be the opposite. Obama finished closer than expected in New York and New Jersey, and he trounced her in the heartland and split the delegate vote down the middle.
Tuesday was supposed to be Hillary's shining moment. The dynamics of the day played to her strengths with delegate-rich blue states, and Edwards supporters were supposed to help her out in the South and Midwest. But no dice.
Obama kept up with her and now has an advantage in the states between now and March 4th. Let's take a look at them.
LOUISIANA--Obama should win pretty handily here with the help of the sizable black population, and the post-Hurricane Katrina mentality of Democrats should favor him as the more anti-establishment candidate.
NEBRASKA, WASHINGTON, MAINE--Obama has won seven of the eight caucuses so far. His excellent grassroots and local support (and cash) should help him carry these states pretty handily.
MARYLAND, VIRGINIA, D.C.--The large black population in each of these contests should favor Obama overwhelmingly. Clinton may steal Virginia but Obama should rake in most of the votes and a lot of the delegates from these contests.
WISCONSIN--This state's progressive mentality and open primary, where independents can vote, should favor Obama overall.
HAWAII--One of Obama's home states. He should win it handily.
In all nine of these states, Obama is the favorite. I think he'll win at least seven of them, but probably more.
Even thought the delegate counts will remain about the same, he will have a lot of momentum going into the important March 4th contests of Ohio and Texas. And that kind of momentum is something that could easily tip the race in his favor.
Even though the Super Tuesday results didn't tell us anything numerically, Obama really emerged as the winner because he cleared the way for the contests to come. He's going to be a juggernaut going into March 4th and Hillary should have a tough time stopping him.
I believe that Obama has now taken Hillary's place as the front-runner in this race, at least for the time being.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Mitt Quits; McCain Seals Nomination
Earlier today, Mitt Romney announced that he is "suspending his campaign" for the presidency. This is after Romney spent about $35 million of his own money and did not get much out of it.
This announcement comes as no surprise after his poor Super Tuesday showing, where he only won Massachusetts, Minnesota, and few other tiny states.
But now, the Republican race is finished. With Romney officially out of the way, John McCain will be their nominee. He will have a chance to unite his party and begin to raise money for the general election against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.
He still has a lot of work to do, convincing the many conservatives that are at odds with him, including influential conservative talk show radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, that he's a true conservative and would represent the party in the White House.
But he has the advantage of starting two or three months earlier than the Democrats. Their race is likely going to go on until June or even later depending on the results of the contests to come.
The big two questions that are arising are:
1.) How much will this head start really help the Republicans in the uphill battle they face?
2.) Who will be McCain's running-mate?
I will be focusing more on the Democratic race until that clears up in the weeks and months to come, but I will try to answer or at least speculate about these questions in the weeks to come as more of the campaign unfolds.
This announcement comes as no surprise after his poor Super Tuesday showing, where he only won Massachusetts, Minnesota, and few other tiny states.
But now, the Republican race is finished. With Romney officially out of the way, John McCain will be their nominee. He will have a chance to unite his party and begin to raise money for the general election against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.
He still has a lot of work to do, convincing the many conservatives that are at odds with him, including influential conservative talk show radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, that he's a true conservative and would represent the party in the White House.
But he has the advantage of starting two or three months earlier than the Democrats. Their race is likely going to go on until June or even later depending on the results of the contests to come.
The big two questions that are arising are:
1.) How much will this head start really help the Republicans in the uphill battle they face?
2.) Who will be McCain's running-mate?
I will be focusing more on the Democratic race until that clears up in the weeks and months to come, but I will try to answer or at least speculate about these questions in the weeks to come as more of the campaign unfolds.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Dems in National Stalemate
Last night was in fact very predictable. Every self-respecting pundit, blogger, and adviser knew that last night would not resolve anything on the Democratic side (including yours truly).
But let's get past the spin and look at what really happened last night and what it means for the marathon that we have just begun.
Last night, Barack Obama carried what he needed to carry. He won most of the south and the heartland pretty handily, and even upset Hillary in New Mexico, Missouri, Delaware, and Connecticut, although they were close.
He had the money and he certainly used it to its fullest potential. He is now virtually tied with Hillary in delegates, and should do well in the states voting in the next two weeks.
But lets' take a look at the big picture. Obama did what he had to do last night, and that was to keep up (in delegates) with Hillary Clinton.
Now let's take a look at Hillary's side. Her campaign is trying to spin last night as a big win for her, considering she was up against the endorsements of Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and many local leaders and unions who supported Obama.
She claims that she upset him in Massachusetts, California, and New Jersey, where polls were starting to trend Obama's way.
Baloney. She was expected to win in all of these states and what's more, was the favorite across the board a few weeks ago.
To be fair, she did hold her own in the delegate-rich states of New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, and California--all blue states in the general election.
She suppressed some of Obama's national momentum and is now neck-and-neck with him in delegates. But, she has a few advantages going forward.
She is getting the majority of the superdelegates, which vote independently from their state, and she may have a case in counting Michigan and Florida's delegates, where she won handily.
But if I were Hillary Clinton, I would be worried. Obama's got her beat on money, all from personal donors who are by no means maxed out. Most of Hillary's donors have maxed out already, and word on the street is that she is pouring $5 Million of her own money into her campaign. She's already getting to be financially desperate.
Also, the calendar ahead is not looking good for her. On Saturday, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington state should go to Obama. On Tuesday, Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. should also go for Obama. Bad news for Hillary.
She is now looking ahead all the way to March 4 to get even again when Texas and Ohio vote. They offer up almost 400 delegates combined, which could really put her in the driver's seat or leave her in the dust.
Let's look at the big picture again. Last night really was a tie. Hillary and Obama held their own, and are about to embark upon a marathon.
Time and money are against Hillary, but she's got the establishment, the majority of the superdelegates, and the name recognition.
Obama's got the time, money, energy, and momentum, but still faces an uphill battle in the weeks and months to come.
And don't forget about John Edwards. An endorsement from him for either Hillary or Obama may have a profound impact upon the race.
But let's get past the spin and look at what really happened last night and what it means for the marathon that we have just begun.
Last night, Barack Obama carried what he needed to carry. He won most of the south and the heartland pretty handily, and even upset Hillary in New Mexico, Missouri, Delaware, and Connecticut, although they were close.
He had the money and he certainly used it to its fullest potential. He is now virtually tied with Hillary in delegates, and should do well in the states voting in the next two weeks.
But lets' take a look at the big picture. Obama did what he had to do last night, and that was to keep up (in delegates) with Hillary Clinton.
Now let's take a look at Hillary's side. Her campaign is trying to spin last night as a big win for her, considering she was up against the endorsements of Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and many local leaders and unions who supported Obama.
She claims that she upset him in Massachusetts, California, and New Jersey, where polls were starting to trend Obama's way.
Baloney. She was expected to win in all of these states and what's more, was the favorite across the board a few weeks ago.
To be fair, she did hold her own in the delegate-rich states of New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, and California--all blue states in the general election.
She suppressed some of Obama's national momentum and is now neck-and-neck with him in delegates. But, she has a few advantages going forward.
She is getting the majority of the superdelegates, which vote independently from their state, and she may have a case in counting Michigan and Florida's delegates, where she won handily.
But if I were Hillary Clinton, I would be worried. Obama's got her beat on money, all from personal donors who are by no means maxed out. Most of Hillary's donors have maxed out already, and word on the street is that she is pouring $5 Million of her own money into her campaign. She's already getting to be financially desperate.
Also, the calendar ahead is not looking good for her. On Saturday, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington state should go to Obama. On Tuesday, Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. should also go for Obama. Bad news for Hillary.
She is now looking ahead all the way to March 4 to get even again when Texas and Ohio vote. They offer up almost 400 delegates combined, which could really put her in the driver's seat or leave her in the dust.
Let's look at the big picture again. Last night really was a tie. Hillary and Obama held their own, and are about to embark upon a marathon.
Time and money are against Hillary, but she's got the establishment, the majority of the superdelegates, and the name recognition.
Obama's got the time, money, energy, and momentum, but still faces an uphill battle in the weeks and months to come.
And don't forget about John Edwards. An endorsement from him for either Hillary or Obama may have a profound impact upon the race.
Super Tuesday Results
Democrats:
Alabama--Obama
Alaska--Obama
Arizona--Clinton
Arkansas--Clinton
California--Clinton
Colorado--Obama
Connecticut--Obama
Delaware--Obama
Georgia--Obama
Idaho--Obama
Illinois--Obama
Kansas--Obama
Massachusetts--Clinton
Minnesota--Obama
Missouri--Obama
New Jersey--Clinton
New Mexico--Unclear
New York--Clinton
North Dakota--Obama
Oklahoma--Clinton
Tennessee--Clinton
Utah--Obama
Republicans:
Alabama--Huckabee
Alaska--Romney
Arizona--McCain
Arkansas--Huckabee
California--McCain
Colorado--Romney
Connecticut--McCain
Delaware--McCain
Georgia--Huckabee
Illinois--McCain
Massachusetts--Romney
Minnesota--Romney
Missouri--McCain
Montana--Romney
New Jersey--McCain
New York--McCain
North Dakota--Romney
Oklahoma--McCain
Tennessee--Huckabee
Utah--Romney
West Virginia--Huckabee
P.S. I'm 40 for 53 with my predictions so far. In case you wanted to know.
Alabama--Obama
Alaska--Obama
Arizona--Clinton
Arkansas--Clinton
California--Clinton
Colorado--Obama
Connecticut--Obama
Delaware--Obama
Georgia--Obama
Idaho--Obama
Illinois--Obama
Kansas--Obama
Massachusetts--Clinton
Minnesota--Obama
Missouri--Obama
New Jersey--Clinton
New Mexico--Unclear
New York--Clinton
North Dakota--Obama
Oklahoma--Clinton
Tennessee--Clinton
Utah--Obama
Republicans:
Alabama--Huckabee
Alaska--Romney
Arizona--McCain
Arkansas--Huckabee
California--McCain
Colorado--Romney
Connecticut--McCain
Delaware--McCain
Georgia--Huckabee
Illinois--McCain
Massachusetts--Romney
Minnesota--Romney
Missouri--McCain
Montana--Romney
New Jersey--McCain
New York--McCain
North Dakota--Romney
Oklahoma--McCain
Tennessee--Huckabee
Utah--Romney
West Virginia--Huckabee
P.S. I'm 40 for 53 with my predictions so far. In case you wanted to know.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Super Tuesday Predictions
I know it's a lot, and it'll probably be very wrong, but here are my predictions for the 43 contests taking place tomorrow night.
Democrats: (2,075)
Alabama (60)--Obama
Alaska (18)--Obama
Arizona (67)--Obama
Arkansas (47)--Clinton
California (441)--Obama
Colorado (71)--Obama
Connecticut (60)--Obama
Delaware (23)--Clinton
Georgia (103)--Obama
Idaho (23)--Obama
Illinois (185)--Obama
Kansas (41)--Obama
Massachusetts (121)--Clinton
Minnesota (88)--Obama
Missouri (88)--Clinton
New Jersey (127)--Clinton
New Mexico (38)--Clinton
New York (281)--Clinton
North Dakota (21)--Clinton
Oklahoma (47)--Clinton
Tennessee (85)--Clinton
Utah (29)--Clinton
Republicans: (1,081)
Alabama (48)--McCain
Alaska (29)--McCain
Arizona (53)--McCain
Arkansas (34)--Huckabee
California (173)--McCain
Colorado (46)--Romney
Connecticut (30)--McCain
Delaware (18)--McCain
Georgia (72)--Huckabee
Illinois (70)--McCain
Massachusetts (43)--Romney
Minnesota (41)--McCain
Missouri (58)--McCain
Montana (25)--Romney
New Jersey (52)--McCain
New York (101)--McCain
North Dakota (26)--McCain
Oklahoma (41)--McCain
Tennessee (55)--McCain
Utah (36)--Romney
West Virginia (30)--McCain
So first, the more exciting race: the Democrats.
I think we'll see a pretty even delegate split after tomorrow, and the race will go on for a very long time.
Overall, I think Barack Obama will carry most of the red states such as Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Alaska, and Kansas tomorrow night. He has a lot of crossover appeal, especially in those states.
Hillary Clinton should carry most of the blue states, and will compete in all the places that Obama wins, giving her plenty of delegates.
I think that the states that will have the most impact tomorrow are the ones with the most delegates. Duh. But each state is different within this category.
For instance, Illinois is an Obama stronghold and has lots of delegates. Obama needs to crush Hillary there and take a strong majority of those delegates.
The same goes in New York and New Jersey for Hillary. The bigger the margin of victory, the more delegates for her, and the less for Obama. Big wins in these states could give one candidate a clear advantage going into Wednesday.
But California is the big wild card. A few weeks ago, it was thought to be Hillary country, but new polls show that Obama has come close, tied, or passed Hillary in the biggest state to vote tomorrow.
I personally think that Obama will win there, and that his current momentum will be evident when the votes are tallied tomorrow. But I don't think he'll win by much, and the delegate total will be pretty much even. But if either candidate can pull off a big win there, then they will have a clear advantage going forward.
Remember to keep your eye on the delegate total tomorrow, not on the percentages or who wins what state. In the end, delegates alone are the key to the nomination.
Now, the Republicans. I think this is much more boring, because as soon as John McCain won Florida, he won the nomination.
I predict that he will win across the board, save a few states that demographically favor his rivals. Those states being Arkansas and Georgia for Mike Huckabee, and Massachusetts, Utah, Colorado, and Montana for Mitt Romney.
McCain should rack up plenty of delegates, leaving both Romney and Huckabee in the dust going into February 6th. After tomorrow, McCain will be the clear nominee for the Republican party.
Democrats: (2,075)
Alabama (60)--Obama
Alaska (18)--Obama
Arizona (67)--Obama
Arkansas (47)--Clinton
California (441)--Obama
Colorado (71)--Obama
Connecticut (60)--Obama
Delaware (23)--Clinton
Georgia (103)--Obama
Idaho (23)--Obama
Illinois (185)--Obama
Kansas (41)--Obama
Massachusetts (121)--Clinton
Minnesota (88)--Obama
Missouri (88)--Clinton
New Jersey (127)--Clinton
New Mexico (38)--Clinton
New York (281)--Clinton
North Dakota (21)--Clinton
Oklahoma (47)--Clinton
Tennessee (85)--Clinton
Utah (29)--Clinton
Republicans: (1,081)
Alabama (48)--McCain
Alaska (29)--McCain
Arizona (53)--McCain
Arkansas (34)--Huckabee
California (173)--McCain
Colorado (46)--Romney
Connecticut (30)--McCain
Delaware (18)--McCain
Georgia (72)--Huckabee
Illinois (70)--McCain
Massachusetts (43)--Romney
Minnesota (41)--McCain
Missouri (58)--McCain
Montana (25)--Romney
New Jersey (52)--McCain
New York (101)--McCain
North Dakota (26)--McCain
Oklahoma (41)--McCain
Tennessee (55)--McCain
Utah (36)--Romney
West Virginia (30)--McCain
So first, the more exciting race: the Democrats.
I think we'll see a pretty even delegate split after tomorrow, and the race will go on for a very long time.
Overall, I think Barack Obama will carry most of the red states such as Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Alaska, and Kansas tomorrow night. He has a lot of crossover appeal, especially in those states.
Hillary Clinton should carry most of the blue states, and will compete in all the places that Obama wins, giving her plenty of delegates.
I think that the states that will have the most impact tomorrow are the ones with the most delegates. Duh. But each state is different within this category.
For instance, Illinois is an Obama stronghold and has lots of delegates. Obama needs to crush Hillary there and take a strong majority of those delegates.
The same goes in New York and New Jersey for Hillary. The bigger the margin of victory, the more delegates for her, and the less for Obama. Big wins in these states could give one candidate a clear advantage going into Wednesday.
But California is the big wild card. A few weeks ago, it was thought to be Hillary country, but new polls show that Obama has come close, tied, or passed Hillary in the biggest state to vote tomorrow.
I personally think that Obama will win there, and that his current momentum will be evident when the votes are tallied tomorrow. But I don't think he'll win by much, and the delegate total will be pretty much even. But if either candidate can pull off a big win there, then they will have a clear advantage going forward.
Remember to keep your eye on the delegate total tomorrow, not on the percentages or who wins what state. In the end, delegates alone are the key to the nomination.
Now, the Republicans. I think this is much more boring, because as soon as John McCain won Florida, he won the nomination.
I predict that he will win across the board, save a few states that demographically favor his rivals. Those states being Arkansas and Georgia for Mike Huckabee, and Massachusetts, Utah, Colorado, and Montana for Mitt Romney.
McCain should rack up plenty of delegates, leaving both Romney and Huckabee in the dust going into February 6th. After tomorrow, McCain will be the clear nominee for the Republican party.
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