What If Edwards Wins Iowa?

Over the past few months, political pundits have been predicting the scenarios of a Clinton or Obama victory in Iowa. But they failed to address the ever-looming threat of John Edwards.

Each day, polls consistently show him getting closer to these two. And now, it's officially a tossup.

The leads among these three are well within the margin of error in these polls, making the outcome a matter of turnout and second choice candidates.

But what happens if Edwards comes up big and wins Iowa?

First, the media will label him as "The Comeback Kid," and they'll obsess over his gradual rise to the top despite a lack of funds. To the victor goes the media.

That positive spin will not necessarily boost him to a victory in New Hampshire, as he polls poorly there.

I personally don't think Edwards can win in New Hampshire under any circumstances, just because his populist message won't really resonate with New Hampshire independents.

A southern populist Baptist doesn't have much in common with a secular a free-thinking New Englander.

But if Edwards pulls it out in Iowa, this race will get a lot more interesting.

Let's go through a couple of scenarios.

Let's say that Edwards comes in first, Clinton in second, and Obama in third, and the final tally is pretty close.

I personally think that in Iowa, who loses is more important than who wins. In this case, Obama would lose big, and would probably lose New Hampshire to Clinton because of the spin the media and the Clintons would put on the outcome.

But if Obama places second and Clinton places third in Iowa, the media will talk about the "epic demise" of Hillary Clinton, and about the myth of her inevitability.

Her campaign would try to shrug it off, saying that Iowa is no big deal, even though it has spent millions of dollars and quite a bit of time there.

They would say, "Oh it's no big deal. They weren't her kind of people anyway." But ideologically, it would be a huge loss for her. Democrats around the country will think that if she can't win (or come close to winning) there, then she can't win anywhere.

A third place finish for her would hurt her more than one for Obama.

Edwards would have to duke it out with the winner of New Hampshire in states like Nevada and South Carolina. That is much too far away to predict. So much can and will happen from now until then.