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Sunday, December 23, 2007

The Huckaboom

Mike Huckabee's rise to stardom in the GOP is something of a fairy tale.

A few months ago, he was doomed to single digits in most states across the country, stuck as an also-ran candidate.

Now, he is the new front-runner in the quest for the GOP nomination.

"How did this happen?" you might ask. Well, that's a damn good question.

Seemingly overnight, Iowa voters seemed to recognize Mike Huckabee as "one of their own." Many were dissatisfied with the current field of Republican candidates, and evangelicals loved the fact that he was a minister and had a consistent position on abortion, unlike Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. And he was likable and funny.

So, the media started to cover his candidacy more, and word-of-mouth spread across Iowa about this guy. Iowans thought that they could relate to him, and whaddaya know: he's the new front-runner.

He is now essentially tied for the national lead alongside Romney and Giuliani, and has a strong lead in Iowa.

Huckabee has yet to really address any specific plans on foreign policy, and has almost no experience with anything across the US borders. Romney and Giuliani have also pointed out that he has had "soft" positions on immigration and education as governor of Arkansas.

But still, hanging on to his bread-and-butter social issues, he has maintained his lead over Romney in Iowa.

Adding insult to injury, Romney, his biggest opponent in the Hawkeye State, has outspent him by roughly 20-1.

Even if Huckabee wins Iowa, he will have serious cash problems when the next 49 states roll along. Momentum alone can't carry him to the nomination.

It is too difficult to tell what kind of effect an Iowa victory will have on the rest of the early-voting states. He will probably fare better in the southern states such as South Carolina and Florida.

It is too early to tell what kind of an effect any of those victories will have on Super Tuesday.

If you ask me, this Huckabee thing is a fad. I don't think he appeals to many voters in New Hampshire, and in most other states north of the Mason-Dixon line.

He is largely a one-issue candidate, with that one issue being abortion. Abortion alone is not enough to carry anyone to the nomination, let alone the presidency.

I think his lack of money and universal appeal will hurt him on Super Tuesday, and that Republicans will wake up and look beyond his stances on social issues and give the nomination to McCain or Romney.

1 comment:

Keith "Nurse Keith" Carlson, RN, BSN, NC-BC said...

Aren't the fortunes of most rising political stars mostly fads devoid of substance? I, for one, am unambiguously unimpressed by the candidates across the board, and I bet most Americans feel the same. And if I'm unimpressed by most, I'm nauseated by the rest.

Great blog!