Romney Is Fading

Mitt Romney, the once front-runner in Iowa and New Hampshire, seems to be slipping in recent polls in said states.

Despite having run the most expensive campaign among Republicans, he trails Mike Huckabee in Iowa and his lead is slowly dissolving to John McCain in New Hampshire.

Does this mean that money can't necessarily buy Romney victory?

Yes.

Romney has hardly left the first two states to cast their votes in the nominating process, and has been badly wounded by the surge of Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Huckabee has spent a small fraction of the money Romney has spent on advertisements and such in the state.

Romney's strategy from the start of the campaign was to focus all of his attention on the early contests of Iowa and New Hampshire. And for a while, it worked.

But as the date of the Iowa caucuses draws nearer, Romney finds himself as the underdog in Iowa. Many political pundits attribute this to his Mormon faith, which unsettles many evangelical voters in the Hawkeye State.

Romney has been scrambling to regain the lead in Iowa, and which has led him to neglect New Hampshire. This has allowed a window for John McCain to re-emerge in the Granite State and take a strong second-place position there below Romney.

A win for Huckabee in Iowa is a win for McCain. If Romney is defeated in Iowa and McCain places a strong third, Romney's firewall in New Hampshire might disappear.

McCain has earned the major endorsements of the New Hampshire Union Leader, the Boston Globe, and more recently, the Boston Herald--the three major newspapers in Romney's backyard. These endorsements might cause Romney supporters to reconsider McCain.

If Romney fails to win Iowa and New Hampshire, you can consider his candidacy as good as dead.

I'll continue to keep a close eye on his campaign, especially after the Iowa results come in.