Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Monday, December 24, 2007

Edwards: The New Kerry?

John Edwards has been largely ignored in the race for the White House, what with the Oprahs and the Magic Johnsons taking up the media spotlight for Clinton and Obama.

But despite a shortage of funds, he is hanging in there in Iowa. Some pundits say that he is right where he wants to be with 10 days before the caucuses.

Most polls show him in a strong third place there, trailing Clinton and Obama by only a few percentage points. Some say he is just lurking in the shadows just waiting to make his move.

Preaching a largely populist message about taking on "Corporate America" and helping out the middle-class, Edwards has gained much support among many Iowans.

In a sense, Edwards and Obama are fighting over the anti-Hillary voters in Iowa, and thus far have divided up the vote almost equally.

But how can Edwards overcome the powerful campaigns of Clinton and Obama?

Easy--the same way Kerry overcame Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, the two Iowa front-runners, in the 2004 caucuses.

Dean and Gephardt both waged highly negative campaigns against each other even up to election day while enjoying a somewhat comfortable lead over the rest of the competition.

Iowa voters obviously did not care for this negative style of campaigning, and it largely hurt the two front-runners on election day.

Kerry snuck up on them and won the state handily. Kerry then used his momentum to catapult him easily to winning the nomination.

There are many similarities between Edwards now and Kerry then. They both led relatively positive campaigns and were financially challenged compared to the front-runners coming into Iowa.

While Clinton and Obama duke it out and exchange insults in Iowa, much like Dean and Gephardt's did, Edwards might just sneak up on them and pull out a come-from-behind victory, much like Kerry did.

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