Barack's Momentum

The media has had a lot of fun giving names to the contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Let's break down what has already happened, what is happening, and what probably will happen.

Hillary has been slipping in the polls recently, especially in the Big 3: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Her nomination seemed inevitable until about a month ago, when she straddled a few issues and her campaign made a few big blunders.

That is where Obama stole the spotlight. He has always been a gifted orator, and really made his case to voters in the Big 3. He appeared authentic, youthful (in a good way), and able to lead the country.

Of course, he did not close the Hillary gap alone. As I'm sure you've already heard, Oprah campaigned with Obama in the Big 3. I don't want to talk about that. Every newspaper and 24-hour news channel already obsessed over that story. Then they obsessed about it some more.

I don't personally think that her presence on the campaign will make a huge impact in the end. At best, it might swing a few undecided voters to Obama's side on election day.

However annoying the media was with the coverage of this story, they did help his campaign by giving him plenty of attention, which he has handled well. Recent polls show that he has capitalized on all of this attention, which shows that he's running a strong and confident campaign--at least right now.

This success was also paired with a few gaffes on the Clinton side which included attacking Obama's kindergarten and teenage record. These accusations backfired in the end, resulting in the brief humiliation in the Clinton campaign, and a drop in polls numbers.

No matter what poll you look at, Obama is gaining on Hillary in the Big 3. Hillary's leads in these states are mostly within the margin of error, if they have not already tipped to Obama's favor.

But will this momentum lead Obama to victory in Iowa and the rest of the primaries?

In the month before the Iowa caucuses in 2004, John Kerry rose in the polls quickly and had plenty of momentum--like Obama--and overtook the Howard Dean's vast lead in the polls--just like Hillary's--in the last few weeks before the caucuses. Kerry went on to win in Iowa, New Hampshire, and 44 other states, and easily won the nomination.

Does this mean that Obama can do the same?

I think if he does not make any major blunders before January 3rd, he has a good shot to win in Iowa. His charisma, oratory, and fund raising ability is uncanny, which Iowa Democrats seem to eat up.

But do not discount Hillary. She has a strong system of support in Iowa, and she is a familiar face to Iowans. Many voters end up going with familiarity in the end.

There is not much time left for campaigning, especially with Christmas and bad weather on the way. Candidates have toned down the negativity, because the polls tell them that it repulses voters, especially around Christmas.

Look for a close race on January 3rd. Anything can happen at the caucuses. Hillary lost the vast lead she had there in a matter of weeks. There is still not a clear-cut front-runner in Iowa, or any of the Big 3. Look for it to have a huge influence on the other states.

The Iowa bounce turned Howard Dean's campaign from inevitable to a long shot overnight. If Hillary loses handily there, I think she's cooked.