Giuliani: A Long Shot?

Republicans are frustrated. No candidate has really emerged as a favorite, or one that could unite the party and defeat the Democrats in November. They all have major drawbacks which have been highlighted again and again by each other (and the media).

Over the next few days, I'm going to evaluate each candidate's chances in the early states and nationally, and why they haven't emerged as the favorite among Republicans.

Rudy Giuliani has been the national front-runner among Republicans since the pilgrims landed on Plymouth Rock. For a long time, people focused on his leadership during 9/11 and thought he could do a good job with terrorism and keeping America safe.

However, recent polls have shown that voters are more concerned about domestic issues like immigration, and Giuliani has lost the spotlight.

His national poll numbers have been slipping, and Huckabee has caught up with him nationally. His liberal views on bread-and-butter social issues--namely gay rights and abortion-- do not sit well with many Republicans, which has hurt his numbers.

And the whole Bernard Kerik scandal hasn't helped him too much either.

After running a weak campaign in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, Rudy's campaign is focusing on winning Florida.

They believe that a victory there will boost his numbers in states like California, New York and many other of the other 20 states that will be casting their votes on Super Tuesday.

Florida is the last state to vote before Super Tuesday, which takes place a week later.

Even though he is beginning to shift his focus to Florida, he has only a small lead over Mike Huckabee there, according to recent polls. And Huckabee has hardly campaigned or spent much money there.

I agree with the many political pundits that Giuliani's strategy is doomed to fail for a few reasons:

1.) His national lead is slipping quickly.

2.) He has almost no chance to win in any state voting before January 29th.

3.) His opponents will get significant bounces from their victories in states like Iowa and New Hampshire. I believe that their momentum will leave him in the dust come Super Tuesday--the day of reckoning for his campaign.

4.) No Republican has ever been nominated without a victory in Iowa or New Hampshire. I don't think that will change now.

Rudy needs foreign policy to take the spotlight again to have a chance of getting the nomination.

Unfortunately, he needs another 9/11.