It is a foregone conclusion that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate (as well as the House) this year, and that they will gain seats in both halls of Congress.
But the real question is whether or not Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer and the Democrats can pick off enough seats to have 60 seats in the Senate. If the Democrats reach that 60-seat threshold, the Republicans cannot filibuster any legislation and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will have complete control over what gets discussed on the Senate floor.
Right now there are 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. One of the Independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, always votes with the Democrats. The other Independent is Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, the former Democratic vice presidential nominee who now supports John McCain. In the past, he has generally voted with the Democrats except on foreign policy issues.
So if we include Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats, they have a 51-49 majority right now. Democrats are heavily favored to pick up the open seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, which were all formerly occupied by Republicans. Assuming the Democrats pick those three states up, they now have a 54-46 majority.
Now, let's take a look at the eight closest Senate races, all of which have Republican incumbents. The Democrats need to win six of the eight listed below to reach that 60-seat majority. I have averaged the totals of three poll averaging websites--RealClearPolitics.com, Electoral-Vote.com and FiveThirtyEight.com--for each of these eight races. The races are listed from most to least competitive--the Democrats are in blue and the Republicans in red, and incumbents are marked with an asterisk.
Minnesota--Franken +0.8
The Democratic candidate, Al Franken, is a former liberal talk show radio host and comedian. He is up against incumbent Norm Coleman, a moderate Republican who is suffering from the GOP voter apathy that is happening across the country. The polls have been all over the place for this race, but it looks like its about even with about a week to go before election day. Also of note is that the Independent candidate, Dean Barkley, is polling at around 17-20% right now and appears to be drawing an equal number of Democrats and Republicans. However, he might have just enough impact to greatly affect who wins this race. It should be a close one, and one that I'll be watching closely.
North Carolina--Hagan +2.0
One-term incumbent Elizabeth Dole, wife of Bob Dole, is facing the fight of her life against State Senator Kay Hagan. Dole was the chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the disastrous 2006 midterm elections. To many North Carolina voters, she represents the continuation of the policies of George Bush and the old guard, but still has excellent name recognition in the state. Hagan may benefit from up-ticket supporters of Barack Obama, especially among African Americans.
Alaska--Begich +2.5
40-year incumbent Senator Ted Stevens looked like he was polling even with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich until he was found guilty on seven counts of lying on his Senate disclosure forms to try to hide illegal gifts he received from an oil services company executive. He could face up to 35 years in jail, and given his age (he is 84), that probably means life in jail. The DSCC has stopped pouring money into the race and it looks like Begich will flip that seat. No polls have been taken in Alaska since Stevens's verdict, so expect the gap to widen in the next 6 days.
Georgia--Chambliss* +2.7
This race is probably the best shot for the Democrats to pick up their 60th seat. This race was not supposed to be close, but incumbent Saxby Chambliss is now very narrowly ahead of former Rep. Jim Martin. Chambliss and the state GOP are facing the massive voter registration drives of the Obama campaign. Obama believes he can pick up the state and is only a few points behind John McCain in the polls. Like Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Jim Martin will benefit from African American up-ticket voters that will and already have showed up to vote for Obama. This is definitely a race to watch on election night.
Kentucky--McConnell* +3.8
Remember when Democratic Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle lost his seat in the 2004 election? Well, the same thing might happen to Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell this time around. Kentucky is usually a reliable red state, and Obama isn't making a strong push here like he is in North Carolina and Virginia. McConnell is favored to hold his seat, but is facing a surprisingly competitive race against wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford. McConnell's ties to the Bush administration may be his demise, but his fundraising and incumbency advantage may save him.
Oregon--Merkley +4.3
Incumbent Gordon Smith is a moderate Republican in a Democratic state, and his chances at six more years do not look good. Smith has very low approval ratings in Oregon and is trailing his opponent, State House Speaker Jeff Merkley. This race is representative of the national Democratic swing and the tarnishing of the Republican name. Oregon does voting by mail only, so most Oregonians have probably voted, so even if Merkley (or Obama) makes a major gaffe in the last week, those votes are already in and the effects may not matter that much. All in all, this seat looks ripe to flip.
Mississippi (Special)--Wicker* +7.6
Roger Wicker took over Trent Lott's senate seat in 2007, and is facing former governor Ronnie Musgrove in a special election this year. Musgrove is a very conservative Democrat, maybe even more to the right of some Republicans in the Senate, but his seat would be an improvement over Wicker for the Democrats. The race looked close up until this past week, when the polls showed the race opening up in favor of Wicker. Barring a national Democratic landslide, this seat looks like a longshot for the Democrats. Georgia and Kentucky are more likely to put the Democrats over the 60-seat hump.
New Hampshire--Shaheen +8.0
Incumbent John Sununu is facing former governor Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of the 2002 open seat contest. Back then, Sununu won by 4%, but that was during a period of Republican dominance. In 2006, Democratic governor John Lynch was re-elected by 47 points, both of the House seats in the state flipped from Republicans to Democrats, and Dems won the majority in both the state House and Senate, so the state is clearly shifting to the left. Sununu has drawn criticism from both the right and the left in his six years in office, and Shaheen has been ahead of him in almost every poll. This state is very likely going to switch over to the Democrats.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Why is McCain Campaigning in Iowa?
Beats me.
Sarah Palin is campaigning in Sioux City, Iowa today, and John McCain will follow her tonight in Waterloo, CBS News' Scott Conroy reports:
The Democrats are maintaining a solid lead in the latest Iowa polls, and the state's dynamics would seem to suit the Democrats. Iowa was the state that catapulted Obama to the front of the Democratic pack after his victory in the state's caucuses in January, and John McCain finished a distant fourth in the Republican field.
Still, the Republicans have to compete in states with less than ideal conditions, and one GOP operative with strong Iowa ties recently told CBS News that internal polling numbers show that the state could be a lot closer than the polls indicate.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Barack Obama has an 11.4 point lead over McCain. According to Electoral-Vote.com, McCain is down by ten points. FiveThirtyEight.com has him down by 12.4 points. Pollster.com has him down by 11.5 points.
Listen, John, your internals better have you a hell of a lot closer than those totals. Iowa, much like Pennsylvania, is essentially out of your reach. Instead of trying to make it seem like you're on the offensive, you should be in must-win states like Colorado and Virginia, where yeah, you're down, but you're certainly not out.
Why would you spend one of your precious few days (and a weekend at that) in a state that is all but out-of-play when you could be in states like Ohio, Florida, Missouri, or North Carolina, where Obama's leads are razor-thin?
I still contend that you should have fired your chief campaign strategists about a month ago, and now, they are completely delusional about your chances in states like Iowa. If you lose this thing--and right now it's looking like you are--people are going to make excuses that Barack Obama won because of the economic crisis or George Bush's legacy.
But another reason that most people will ignore is how badly your campaign has been run. This is not necessarily all on you, but it speaks volumes about who you surrounded yourself with in your campaign, and how they made a relatively good candidate run a terrible strategic campaign.
Take a lot at where Barack Obama and Joe Biden were today. Obama held rallies in Nevada then New Mexico, two pivotal states where he has a really good chance of winning, especially the latter. Biden was campaigning in Virginia today, one of the highly competitive states that is likely to put his ticket over the 270-electoral vote threshold on election night. That is how you are supposed to spend your last ten days before an election.
So get out of Waterloo, Sioux City, Pittsburgh, or Harrisburg or wherever you're going, and spend your last precious days and dollars where you have a remote chance of winning.
Nate Silver on McCain's Path to an Electoral Win
I thought this article by Nate Silver in the New York Post on how McCain can pull off a win in the electoral college was very interesting. Here's what he said the McCain campaign should do:
1. Abandon Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa. The notion that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania is folly. He has not led a poll in the Keystone since April, essentially since the Democratic primaries were competed and Obama laid down roots in the state. Current polls have McCain trailing by margins ranging from 7 to 13 points, well more than his disadvantage nationally. Pennsylvania is an expensive state to compete in. And contrary to the conventional wisdom, Obama did not particularly underperform his polls during the primaries (the final Pollster.com average projected Obama to lose Pennsylvania by 7.6 points, and Obama lost by 9.1, essentially within the margin of error).
Iowa is even worse for McCain; his position on ethanol is a non-starter there, and he hasn't led a poll in the state all year. Wisconsin and Minnesota aren't much better. Wisconsin borders Illinois and has same-day registration, which will allow Obama to run up the score with students in Madison and Milwaukee. Minnesota, in spite of being one of the few places where the Republicans have outadvertised the Democrats, has merely bent but not broken; McCain might get his margin within 2-3 points there, but it's hard to imagine him winning such a traditionally blue state.
2) Attack New Hampshire and New Mexico. On the other hand, New Hampshire and New Mexico might present more appealing opportunities. Obama's gains in the post-Lehman universe have come principally from white voters, which means that New Mexico, the most Hispanic state in the country, has drifted closer to the electoral tipping point. It is also dirt cheap to advertise in. New Hampshire is not as cheap, since its television market overlaps with Boston, but this is a state where McCain overperformed during the primaries in both 2000 and 2008, while Obama did just the opposite. And McCain's tax message might sell well in such a notoriously libertarian state.
3) Defend Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina. McCain faces uphill battles in Colorado and Virginia, where the demographic winds have shifted against him, and where he has been vastly out-organized on the ground. But they represent Obama's path of least resistance to 270 electoral votes, which means that McCain needs to do everything in his power to block it. Should Obama win all the Kerry states, plus Iowa and New Mexico, he only needs one of Colorado and Virginia to clinch the Electoral College, and right now he has solid leads in both.
McCain's problem in North Carolina and Nevada is that those states are already voting, and that Obama is banking votes there every day.
Between Clark and Washoe Counties, which represent about 85% of Nevada's population, Democratic early voters have outnumbered Republicans by about 2:1. Similar numbers apply in North Carolina, where Obama has already established a lead of several hundred thousand votes.
Ohio is more difficult to read, with polls showing everything from a 2-point McCain lead to a 14-point edge for Obama. But this is a state that is immensely dissatisfied with the Republicans establishment, and where Democrats have made huge gains in voter registrations. Unlike in 2004, moreover, Ohio has a Democrat as its Secretary of State, so something like a recount or a dispute over ballot access is more likely than not to be resolved in their favor.
4) Gamble on Florida, Missouri and Indiana. But McCain quite literally cannot afford to compete everywhere. In certain states, he needs to throw caution to the wind, and simply hope that they come back into his column if and when the national polls tighten. Florida is a good example. The state and local Republican parties are well-organized there, and Republicans have historically outperformed their polls there on election day (George W. Bush, ahead of John Kerry by only 1-2 points in most public polls in 2004, wound up winning by 5). There is also a gay marriage initiative on the ballot, which might draw older voters to the polls.
Indiana and Missouri are in some senses riskier; they border Illinois, so they'll be flooded with Democratic volunteers on Election Day, and Obama closed strongly in both states during the primaries. But Missouri is no longer a true bellwether; it was between 4 and 5 points redder than the country as a whole in the last two election cycles, and McCain has to hope that the same holds this year. And in Indiana, a state where both public and private polls have diverged wildly from one another, McCain simply has to hope that George W. Bush's 21-point advantage in 2004 is too much for any Democrat to overcome in one year.
By no means would this strategy make a victory likely for John McCain. He needs to find some way to win several news cycles during the last week of the campaign, and then he needs hope, faith, and a lot of luck. But faced with a dire situation, McCain needs to re-find the focus and discipline that he has been lacking for much of the campaign; this is his best chance to do so.
State of the Race: 10 Days to Go
It was a slow polling day, with only a few new polls coming out today. Here are the numbers, and as always, the states are listed from most to least competitive.
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.1
Missouri (11)--Obama +2.0
Florida (27)--Obama +2.0
Montana (3)--McCain +2.4
Indiana (11)--Obama +2.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +2.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.7
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.0
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.3
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.8
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +6.3
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +6.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.5
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.2
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.3
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163
One poll that came out after yesterday's update was the Rasmussen poll in New Hampshire, and boy was it good news for John McCain. The poll showed him down by only four points, cutting the margin down considerably from the last batch of polls from the state. New Hampshire still remains McCain's best opportunity to pick off a Kerry state.
Another Rasmussen poll that came out after yesterday's update out of Iowa shows that the state is not totally out of play. According to that poll, McCain is only down by eight points, which is not terrible news for McCain. It shows that Obama has not yet sealed the deal, but it will still be very hard for McCain to win there. McCain is spending most of the weekend in Iowa, in search of some much-needed electoral votes, but his chances look grim.
The McCain campaign's decision to go all-out for Pennsylvania has not really moved the polls at all. Obama continues to hold a double-digit advantage over McCain according to the Morning Call Pennsylvania tracking poll.
Some more bad news for the McCain camp is the results from today's Rocky Mountain News poll, which has Obama up by 12 there. If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania (and it looks like he's not), Colorado is one of the states he must win, along with Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
Also, the reliable Ohio Newspaper poll puts Obama up by three in the Buckeye state, which is a definite improvement for McCain over the double digit deficits he got in the last two polls. This poll seems more logical than the last two--I do not for a second believe that Obama has a double-digit lead over McCain in Ohio.
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.1
Missouri (11)--Obama +2.0
Florida (27)--Obama +2.0
Montana (3)--McCain +2.4
Indiana (11)--Obama +2.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +2.7
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.7
Georgia (15)--McCain +4.0
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.3
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.8
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +6.3
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.8
West Virginia (5)--McCain +6.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.3
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.5
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.1
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.2
Iowa (7)--Obama +11.3
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163
One poll that came out after yesterday's update was the Rasmussen poll in New Hampshire, and boy was it good news for John McCain. The poll showed him down by only four points, cutting the margin down considerably from the last batch of polls from the state. New Hampshire still remains McCain's best opportunity to pick off a Kerry state.
Another Rasmussen poll that came out after yesterday's update out of Iowa shows that the state is not totally out of play. According to that poll, McCain is only down by eight points, which is not terrible news for McCain. It shows that Obama has not yet sealed the deal, but it will still be very hard for McCain to win there. McCain is spending most of the weekend in Iowa, in search of some much-needed electoral votes, but his chances look grim.
The McCain campaign's decision to go all-out for Pennsylvania has not really moved the polls at all. Obama continues to hold a double-digit advantage over McCain according to the Morning Call Pennsylvania tracking poll.
Some more bad news for the McCain camp is the results from today's Rocky Mountain News poll, which has Obama up by 12 there. If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania (and it looks like he's not), Colorado is one of the states he must win, along with Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
Also, the reliable Ohio Newspaper poll puts Obama up by three in the Buckeye state, which is a definite improvement for McCain over the double digit deficits he got in the last two polls. This poll seems more logical than the last two--I do not for a second believe that Obama has a double-digit lead over McCain in Ohio.
Friday, October 24, 2008
State of the Race: 11 Days to Go
I'm a bit pressed for time, so I'd like to give you just the numbers and a brief analysis of them. Here are my averages for each of the 18 battleground states (I've removed Michigan from the list, Obama leads by over 15 points there) with 11 days to go before election day. The states are listed from most to least competitive.
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.6
Missouri (11)--Obama +2.1
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.1
Montana (3)--McCain +2.2
Florida (27)--Obama +2.3
Indiana (3)--Obama +2.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +2.8
Georgia (15)--McCain +5.1
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.4
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.6
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.9
West Virginia (5)--McCain +7.0
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +7.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.4
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.9
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.4
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.6
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.1
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163
A batch of Big 10 Battleground polls from the University of Wisconsin that came out yesterday shows Obama up by double digits in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and even Indiana. Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.
Some are saying that yesterday was McCain's worst polling day of the year. However, the national tracking polls did not change drastically--all of the action was at the state level. Polls showing him down double digits in Pennsylvania and Ohio--both of which have become must-win states for him--as well as in Indiana is really bad news for the McCain campaign.
Even more bad news comes from reliably red Montana, where a new poll from MSU-Billings shows Obama up by four points there. Also of note is the fact that Ron Paul is on the ballot in that state and he drew 4 percent of the vote in the same poll--the exact difference between Obama and McCain.
Also, a new Insider Advantage poll shows Obama with a lead (albeit an insignificant one) in Georgia. If McCain is having trouble defending deep red states such as this at this point in the campaign, it bodes ill for him on election night.
McCain does get some good news out of a Strategic Vision poll in Florida--where he leads by two points--and Ohio--where he leads by three. But take into account that Strategic Vision is a notoriously right-leaning pollster. McCain also gets some good news out of a Rasmussen poll in North Carolina, where he also leads Obama by two points. But my model still shows Obama with leads in all three of these states.
North Carolina (15)--Obama +1.6
Missouri (11)--Obama +2.1
North Dakota (3)--McCain +2.1
Montana (3)--McCain +2.2
Florida (27)--Obama +2.3
Indiana (3)--Obama +2.7
Nevada (5)--Obama +2.8
Georgia (15)--McCain +5.1
Ohio (20)--Obama +5.4
Colorado (9)--Obama +5.6
Virginia (13)--Obama +6.9
West Virginia (5)--McCain +7.0
New Hampshire (4)--Obama +7.9
New Mexico (5)--Obama +8.4
Pennsylvania (21)--Obama +10.9
Wisconsin (10)--Obama +11.4
Minnesota (10)--Obama +11.6
Iowa (7)--Obama +13.1
TODAY'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION:
Obama: 375
McCain: 163
A batch of Big 10 Battleground polls from the University of Wisconsin that came out yesterday shows Obama up by double digits in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and even Indiana. Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.
Some are saying that yesterday was McCain's worst polling day of the year. However, the national tracking polls did not change drastically--all of the action was at the state level. Polls showing him down double digits in Pennsylvania and Ohio--both of which have become must-win states for him--as well as in Indiana is really bad news for the McCain campaign.
Even more bad news comes from reliably red Montana, where a new poll from MSU-Billings shows Obama up by four points there. Also of note is the fact that Ron Paul is on the ballot in that state and he drew 4 percent of the vote in the same poll--the exact difference between Obama and McCain.
Also, a new Insider Advantage poll shows Obama with a lead (albeit an insignificant one) in Georgia. If McCain is having trouble defending deep red states such as this at this point in the campaign, it bodes ill for him on election night.
McCain does get some good news out of a Strategic Vision poll in Florida--where he leads by two points--and Ohio--where he leads by three. But take into account that Strategic Vision is a notoriously right-leaning pollster. McCain also gets some good news out of a Rasmussen poll in North Carolina, where he also leads Obama by two points. But my model still shows Obama with leads in all three of these states.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
State of the Race: 12 Days to Go
So here's a quick look at where the 19 battleground states currently stand, in order from most to least competitive based on recent polling. I have averaged the totals of three poll averaging websites--RealClearPolitics.com, Electoral-Vote.com and FiveThirtyEight.com--for each of these states. Let's take a look.
Florida (27 EV's)--Obama +1.5
I thought that this classic swing state would have trended to John McCain at this point in the race, but Barack Obama has gotten some good numbers here in the most recent polls. He is also heavily outspending and out-advertising McCain in the state. But this is a must-win for McCain.
North Carolina (15 EV's)--Obama +1.8
Who would have thought that at this point in the race, a state that George Bush won by 12 and 13 points in 2000 and 2004, respectively, would still be in play? Obama is making a hard push to flip North Carolina's fifteen electoral votes that have not gone for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This state will be interesting to watch on election night, because not only is this state a tossup in the presidential race, but there are extremely close senatorial and gubernatorial races happening in this state. This is also a must-win state for McCain.
Missouri (11 EV's)--Obama +1.9
This state is typically a bellwether for the rest of the country, as it has voted for the winning candidate in the presidential election in the last 12 elections. This is another state McCain must carry if he wants any shot at reaching 270 electoral votes.
Indiana (11 EV's)--McCain +2.1
The Hoosier State is usually a reliable red state, but Obama has made a huge push for the state. This state's polls close at 6:00 P.M. on election day and the first results from the state will be an early indicator of just how bad things are going to be for McCain for the rest of the night.
Nevada (5 EV's)--Obama +2.7
Even though Nevada only has five electoral votes, victory in the state has become crucial in the McCain campaign's electoral math. The Hispanics vote will play a huge role in the state's final results, and right now they seem to be trending heavily towards Obama.
North Dakota (3 EV's)--McCain +3.0
Yeah, I'm surprised that this state is so high up on this list as well (or even the fact that's it's on this list at all). This is a state that Bush won by 27 and 28 points in the last two elections. Obama removed most of his resources and staff from the state earlier in the Fall, but now they're considering moving them back as a result of their surprisingly strong recent poll numbers.
Ohio (20 EV's)--Obama +3.4
Ah yes, the classic battleground and bellwether state, home of Joe the Plumber and a long history of indecisiveness. Obama's ground and turnout operation here are said to be massive and unprecedented. McCain absolutely needs this state to reach 270.
Montana (3 EV's)--McCain +4.6
Like North Dakota, this should be a state that McCain should win easily. But the most recent polls show the race nearly dead even there. This is a state with a high number of libertarians and traditional conservatives, yet it does have a Democratic governor and one Democratic senator.
Colorado (9 EV's)--Obama +5.2
Obama's lead has remained pretty steady here in the last month, and many think Obama has built a formidable firewall here. McCain recently stopped his advertising here, showing that he thinks the state is slipping too far away. I will be watching this state very closely on election night, because it may very well put Obama over the top.
Georgia (15 EV's)--McCain +6.4
I'm really surprised that the race is this close here this late in the game. The Obama team has been encouraged by the most recent poll numbers here and is considering upping the effort and making a real push for it before election day.
Virginia (13 EV's)--Obama +6.7
I also thought that this state would be a lot closer this late this close to election day, but Obama holds a strong lead here and has built up something of a firewall. His surge and main area of support is in the Washington, D.C. suburbs in Northern Virginia. This is yet another must-win state for McCain.
West Virginia (5 EV's)--McCain +7.3
For a little while, it looked like Obama could pick off this overwhelmingly white state where he got about a quarter of the vote in the primaries. But more recent polls have him down by a larger margin, and this state is not likely to switch hands this year.
New Hampshire (4 EV's)--Obama +7.6
This is one of the few states that switched hands between 2000 and 2004, and has always been very competitive. This state revived McCain's primary campaigns in 2000 and 2004, and he is liked and respected up there. But their fear of four more years of Bush might trump their affection for McCain. This is probably the best shot McCain has of picking off a blue state, and right now it is the most competitive Kerry state.
New Mexico (5 EV's)--Obama +8.2
It has been pretty well-established that this state, along with Iowa, were the two Bush states that were definitely going to change hands this year. The McCain campaign has essentially abandoned the state and Obama should carry it by a significant margin on election night.
Minnesota (10 EV's)--Obama +10.4
McCain and the Republicans held their convention here in September, but it's looking like they are not going to flip the state this year. They have recently dialed down their advertising and organizational efforts here in a sign that this state is essentially out of reach.
Wisconsin (10 EV's)--Obama +10.6
This state is very similar demographically to Minnesota, except that it has a larger population of independents and has a much stronger anti-Bush feel to it. McCain has also stopped his advertising here in the past week. I expect Obama to carry this state easily on November 4.
Pennsylvania (21 EV's)--Obama +10.8
Take a minute and look how far down this state is on this list. Then look at the lead Obama has. This is the state that McCain is placing all of his hope in. Not Colorado, not Virginia, but Pennsylvania. The most recent polls show Obama up by double digits here, despite a vastly increased effort in the state by the McCain campaign. Good luck picking this one off, guys.
Iowa (7 EV's)--Obama +12.2
As soon as McCain said that he was against ethanol subsidies, he basically conceded this state. During the primaries, McCain basically ignored the state and Obama essentially lived in the state for about a year. The Iowan voters that gave the early advantage over Hillary Clinton in the primaries know him very well. It has been a foregone conclusion for a while that Obama would carry Iowa by a significant margin.
Michigan (17 EV's)--Obama +14.4
I don't even know why I'm still calling this a battleground state. Ever since McCain pulled out of this state last month, his poll numbers have taken a serious nose dive. He has almost zero chance of carrying the state now.
Florida (27 EV's)--Obama +1.5
I thought that this classic swing state would have trended to John McCain at this point in the race, but Barack Obama has gotten some good numbers here in the most recent polls. He is also heavily outspending and out-advertising McCain in the state. But this is a must-win for McCain.
North Carolina (15 EV's)--Obama +1.8
Who would have thought that at this point in the race, a state that George Bush won by 12 and 13 points in 2000 and 2004, respectively, would still be in play? Obama is making a hard push to flip North Carolina's fifteen electoral votes that have not gone for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This state will be interesting to watch on election night, because not only is this state a tossup in the presidential race, but there are extremely close senatorial and gubernatorial races happening in this state. This is also a must-win state for McCain.
Missouri (11 EV's)--Obama +1.9
This state is typically a bellwether for the rest of the country, as it has voted for the winning candidate in the presidential election in the last 12 elections. This is another state McCain must carry if he wants any shot at reaching 270 electoral votes.
Indiana (11 EV's)--McCain +2.1
The Hoosier State is usually a reliable red state, but Obama has made a huge push for the state. This state's polls close at 6:00 P.M. on election day and the first results from the state will be an early indicator of just how bad things are going to be for McCain for the rest of the night.
Nevada (5 EV's)--Obama +2.7
Even though Nevada only has five electoral votes, victory in the state has become crucial in the McCain campaign's electoral math. The Hispanics vote will play a huge role in the state's final results, and right now they seem to be trending heavily towards Obama.
North Dakota (3 EV's)--McCain +3.0
Yeah, I'm surprised that this state is so high up on this list as well (or even the fact that's it's on this list at all). This is a state that Bush won by 27 and 28 points in the last two elections. Obama removed most of his resources and staff from the state earlier in the Fall, but now they're considering moving them back as a result of their surprisingly strong recent poll numbers.
Ohio (20 EV's)--Obama +3.4
Ah yes, the classic battleground and bellwether state, home of Joe the Plumber and a long history of indecisiveness. Obama's ground and turnout operation here are said to be massive and unprecedented. McCain absolutely needs this state to reach 270.
Montana (3 EV's)--McCain +4.6
Like North Dakota, this should be a state that McCain should win easily. But the most recent polls show the race nearly dead even there. This is a state with a high number of libertarians and traditional conservatives, yet it does have a Democratic governor and one Democratic senator.
Colorado (9 EV's)--Obama +5.2
Obama's lead has remained pretty steady here in the last month, and many think Obama has built a formidable firewall here. McCain recently stopped his advertising here, showing that he thinks the state is slipping too far away. I will be watching this state very closely on election night, because it may very well put Obama over the top.
Georgia (15 EV's)--McCain +6.4
I'm really surprised that the race is this close here this late in the game. The Obama team has been encouraged by the most recent poll numbers here and is considering upping the effort and making a real push for it before election day.
Virginia (13 EV's)--Obama +6.7
I also thought that this state would be a lot closer this late this close to election day, but Obama holds a strong lead here and has built up something of a firewall. His surge and main area of support is in the Washington, D.C. suburbs in Northern Virginia. This is yet another must-win state for McCain.
West Virginia (5 EV's)--McCain +7.3
For a little while, it looked like Obama could pick off this overwhelmingly white state where he got about a quarter of the vote in the primaries. But more recent polls have him down by a larger margin, and this state is not likely to switch hands this year.
New Hampshire (4 EV's)--Obama +7.6
This is one of the few states that switched hands between 2000 and 2004, and has always been very competitive. This state revived McCain's primary campaigns in 2000 and 2004, and he is liked and respected up there. But their fear of four more years of Bush might trump their affection for McCain. This is probably the best shot McCain has of picking off a blue state, and right now it is the most competitive Kerry state.
New Mexico (5 EV's)--Obama +8.2
It has been pretty well-established that this state, along with Iowa, were the two Bush states that were definitely going to change hands this year. The McCain campaign has essentially abandoned the state and Obama should carry it by a significant margin on election night.
Minnesota (10 EV's)--Obama +10.4
McCain and the Republicans held their convention here in September, but it's looking like they are not going to flip the state this year. They have recently dialed down their advertising and organizational efforts here in a sign that this state is essentially out of reach.
Wisconsin (10 EV's)--Obama +10.6
This state is very similar demographically to Minnesota, except that it has a larger population of independents and has a much stronger anti-Bush feel to it. McCain has also stopped his advertising here in the past week. I expect Obama to carry this state easily on November 4.
Pennsylvania (21 EV's)--Obama +10.8
Take a minute and look how far down this state is on this list. Then look at the lead Obama has. This is the state that McCain is placing all of his hope in. Not Colorado, not Virginia, but Pennsylvania. The most recent polls show Obama up by double digits here, despite a vastly increased effort in the state by the McCain campaign. Good luck picking this one off, guys.
Iowa (7 EV's)--Obama +12.2
As soon as McCain said that he was against ethanol subsidies, he basically conceded this state. During the primaries, McCain basically ignored the state and Obama essentially lived in the state for about a year. The Iowan voters that gave the early advantage over Hillary Clinton in the primaries know him very well. It has been a foregone conclusion for a while that Obama would carry Iowa by a significant margin.
Michigan (17 EV's)--Obama +14.4
I don't even know why I'm still calling this a battleground state. Ever since McCain pulled out of this state last month, his poll numbers have taken a serious nose dive. He has almost zero chance of carrying the state now.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
McCain Puts All Hope in Pennsylvania
Yesterday, CNN reported that two top McCain campaign strategists had said that they were basically abandoning New Mexico (5 EV's) and Iowa (7 EV's), two states that George Bush won in 2004, where Barack Obama leads heavily in the polls (he leads by about 8 points in New Mexico and by about 12 points in Iowa).CNN also reported that McCain might be conceding Colorado, a state where Obama leads by about 5 points in the polls. One source from the McCain campaign said that while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and said "most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado."But a few operatives from the campaign are now saying that they still believe the state is still in play.
However, the New York Times reported today that McCain is reducing his advertising in Colorado as well as four states that John Kerry won in 2004: New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Maine. This move is not necessarily a permanent one, but it certainly shows a shift of priorities in his campaign.
So okay, let's assume that Obama wins all of the states Kerry won in 2004 (Obama leads in all of these states by at least 9 points) plus Iowa and New Mexico. That would give him 264 electoral votes, just six shy of the 270 needed to put him over the top. Now, since McCain is pulling most of his advertising money out of Colorado, let's give that to Obama as well. That gives him 273 electoral votes, making him our next president.
In this scenario, even McCain he carries all of the other swing states, he still loses 273-265 in the electoral college. So what's his strategy now? Well, it's simple.
His strategy is to win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, and Indiana--all of which are must-win states where the race is essentially tied or Obama is ahead--and to pick off Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes from the Democrats. Yes, I'm serious.
McCain seems to be giving up on any path to victory that does not involve Pennsylvania, a state that has not voted for a Republican in 20 years. His victory strategy depends on a state where he is down by an average of about 11 points and where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 1.1 million. Yikes.
Here's Al Giordano's take on this...um...brave new strategy:
But here's what I think is going on at McCain strategy central: They're getting tired of the daily drumbeat on cable TV news and by newspaper pundits that says things like, "here are the six or seven swing states, all of them voted for Bush in 2004, Obama is winning or tied in most of them, and for McCain to win he has to run the table, taking every single one of them or it's over."
That message - that there is only one narrow Electoral College path to victory for McCain, while there are multiple ones for Obama - has cast a deathly spell over the GOP base's enthusiasm, which is now being reflected in paltry early voting numbers by Republican voters, especially in Nevada and North Carolina. And so they're trying to offer the faithful a belief in the suggestion that McCain, too, has multiple paths to win.
So basically Al thinks that McCain may be trying to use Pennsylvania--a state where his numbers have nowhere to go but up--in order to create a sense of momentum that may increase enthusiasm among his supporters in traditionally red states and change the narrative of the race. The campaign wants to appear like its on the offensive, not just defending old Bush states.
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, said Tuesday: "Pennsylvania is essential to their [McCain's] victory plan, though it's a longshot. If you assume Iowa is gone and New Mexico is gone and Virginia is gone, they have to win a substantial blue state. And we're the best choice out of a lot of bad choices."
I am guessing that the McCain team chose this state to make their final stand because Obama underperformed there in the primaries and they believe that they can pick off some Hillary Clinton supporters in the central part of the state, which is more rural and socially conservative. But we all know that he's going to have to woo those people over with something other than the economy. Maybe he'll throw out his principles and inject Rev. Jeremiah Wright back into the mix to try and make the campaign about race. Hell, it worked during the primaries.
This move strikes me as a desperate one. The word kamikaze comes to mind. McCain is betting the farm on a state where nearly every public poll shows that Obama will win the state in a landslide. McCain's political director Michael Duhaime said that their internal data is trending is trending in McCain's favor. I would really like to see those numbers, and how they know that their internal data is better than all of the other public polls out there.
Now, I believe that the polls are exaggerating Obama's lead in Pennsylvania and I don't think he's winning there by double digits. The polls should tighten in the next two weeks, but I do think that Obama still holds a significant advantage there. I understand why the McCain campaign has targeted this state, but I think they would be better suited to go after Colorado, where the race looks closer.
I'll leave you with a passage from Nate Silver:
The McCain campaign does not have any particular idea how they're going to win Pennsylvania, nor why the public polls have the state wrong -- they're just hoping their numbers are right, and hoping that something comes together for them.
As a famous Democrat once said, of course, hope is not a strategy.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Obama Raises $150 million in Sept.
Barack Obama raised more than $150 million in September, a number that no other political candidate has ever reached in a single month. The campaign released this figure today on the same day of Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama.
Campaign manager David Plouffe said the campaign had added 632,000 new donors in September, for a total of 3.1 million total contributors to the campaign. He said the average donation was $86. What is shocking about this is that most of these contributors don't donate the maximum amount that campaign finance laws allow, they are giving $20 to $100 at a time to his campaign, which is very unusual in presidential races.
These kinds of numbers are possible because Obama opted out of public financing--he is the first candidate in history to do so--and is virtually unrestricted in his fundraising abilities. John McCain, on the other hand, chose to take public financing which limits him to $84 million dollars in the last two months of the campaign.
These new fundraising figures raise Obama's total amount of money raised to $605 million, which is the most money raised in any presidential campaign. Ever. His previous record for fundraising was in August, when he raised $65 million.
Obama's massive financial advantage has allowed him to outspend McCain in every single battleground state. He is currently outspending McCain on TV advertising four-to-one. With this advantage, he has secured strong footholds in all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004 along with Iowa and New Mexico. But he has also been able to expand the contest to reliably Republican states such as Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia, and has forced McCain and the RNC to spend their money defensively.
Plouffe announced that they would be spending some $5 million dollars in West Virginia in the 16 days before election day, which could go a long way in buying TV advertising, seeing as it is a fairly cheap state to advertise in. Plouffe also hinted that they might be expanding even further in states such as North Dakota and Georgia, two other reliably Republican states where polls have shown a tightening race.
Campaign manager David Plouffe said the campaign had added 632,000 new donors in September, for a total of 3.1 million total contributors to the campaign. He said the average donation was $86. What is shocking about this is that most of these contributors don't donate the maximum amount that campaign finance laws allow, they are giving $20 to $100 at a time to his campaign, which is very unusual in presidential races.
These kinds of numbers are possible because Obama opted out of public financing--he is the first candidate in history to do so--and is virtually unrestricted in his fundraising abilities. John McCain, on the other hand, chose to take public financing which limits him to $84 million dollars in the last two months of the campaign.
These new fundraising figures raise Obama's total amount of money raised to $605 million, which is the most money raised in any presidential campaign. Ever. His previous record for fundraising was in August, when he raised $65 million.
Obama's massive financial advantage has allowed him to outspend McCain in every single battleground state. He is currently outspending McCain on TV advertising four-to-one. With this advantage, he has secured strong footholds in all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004 along with Iowa and New Mexico. But he has also been able to expand the contest to reliably Republican states such as Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia, and has forced McCain and the RNC to spend their money defensively.
Plouffe announced that they would be spending some $5 million dollars in West Virginia in the 16 days before election day, which could go a long way in buying TV advertising, seeing as it is a fairly cheap state to advertise in. Plouffe also hinted that they might be expanding even further in states such as North Dakota and Georgia, two other reliably Republican states where polls have shown a tightening race.
Colin Powell Endorses Obama
Former Secretary of State and long-time Republican Gen. Colin Powell (Ret.) endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for president.On "Meet the Press" just about an hour ago, Powell said that although both men are qualified to be commander in chief, Obama is the man that this country and world needs now at this critical juncture in history. He also added that Obama has shown through his steadiness and poise that he is more suited to handle the nation's economic problems as well as improve America's standing in the world.
"But I firmly believe that at this point in America's history, we need a president that will not just continue, even with a new face and with the changes and with some maverick aspects, who will not just continue basically the policies that we have been following in recent years," Powell said.
"I think we need a transformational figure. I think we need a president who is a generational change and that's why I'm supporting Barack Obama, not out of any lack of respect or admiration for Sen. John McCain."
As I described in an earlier entry on this very subject, Powell's endorsement is very significant because he is a Republican with unmatched foreign policy credentials, a subject on which Obama is weak.
When host Tom Brokaw asked if Obama's race had anything to do with his decision, Powell responded that it was not a dominant factor in his decision. If he was basing his decision on race alone, he said he would have endorsed Obama months ago.
Powell spoke fondly of John McCain throughout the interview, citing him as a friend of 25 years who he has great respect and admiration for. He also added that he could also be a good president.
However, Powell said that he was disappointed with the negative tone of his campaign, citing that the whole William Ayers issue should not even be an issue and that Obama clearly had a very, very limited relationship with the man. He expressed disappointment that although McCain had said that he "did not care about an old washed up terrorist" in the third presidential debate, he had continued to bring him up and centralize his campaign around the man, as well as condone the robo-calls being made to hundreds of thousands of Americans around the country regarding Obama's relationship with Ayers that he feels are dividing the country.
Powell was also troubled by Republican personal attacks on Obama, especially false intimations that Obama was Muslim. Stressing that Obama was a lifelong Christian, Powell denounced Republican tactics that he said were insulting not only to to Obama but also to Muslims.
“The really right answer is what if he is?” Powell said, praising the contributions of millions of Muslim citizens to American society.
“I look at these kind of approaches to the campaign, and they trouble me,” Powell said. He also criticized his own party: “Over the last seven weeks, the approach of the Republican Party has become narrower and narrower.”
Powell, as secretary of state under George W. Bush, helped make the case before the United Nations for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. A retired general, he also was the nation's top military commander, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during the first Gulf war under President George H.W. Bush.
On Fox News Sunday, McCain said he disagreed with Powell's decision to endorse Obama, and touted that he had been endorsed by four other secretaries of state under Republican administrations.
"Well, I've always admired and respected Gen. Powell. We're longtime friends. This doesn't come as a surprise," McCain said.
Asked whether Powell's endorsement would undercut his campaign's repeated assertion that Obama is not ready to lead, McCain said: "Well, again, we have a very, we have a respectful disagreement, and I think the American people will pay close attention to our message for the future and keeping America secure."
At the end of the interview with Brokaw, Powell said that he does not plan on campaigning for Obama in these last few weeks. When asked whether he would consider joining the next president's cabinet, Powell said that he is not eager to return to that kind of position, but would sit down and talk or give advice to either candidate.
In the end, Powell's endorsement can only help Obama and hurt McCain. It may reassure many voters who were leaning towards Obama but were not quite convinced that he is ready to be commander in chief. This endorsement might also help Obama among veterans in the veteran-rich battlegrounds of Florida, North Carolina and Northern Virginia (with the latter being the most important swing region in the country).
At the very least, it will dominate the news cycle of the next few days and it will bring positive attention to the Obama campaign. It will also help to run out the clock on McCain campaign, which is still looking for a way to turn this race around, but it running out of time.
Here is a clip from his endorsement.
UPDATE: Barack Obama acknowledged and welcomed Powell's support at an afternoon rally today in Fayetteville, North Carolina:
"This morning, a great soldier, a great statesman, and a great American has endorsed our campaign to change America," Obama said. "I have been honored to have the benefit of his wisdom and counsel from time to time over the last few years. ... He knows, as we do, that this is a moment where we all need to come together as one nation -- young and old, rich and poor, black and white, Republican and Democrat."
Obama Dominating Early Voting
Last week, SurveyUSA started polling in states in which some form of early voting was already underway. They asked respondents: "Have you already voted?" If the answer was yes, they asked: "For whom?"
Here are their results among early voters from five key swing states, all of which George W. Bush carried in 2004 (in parentheses are the percentages of respondents in the state who voted early):
Georgia--Obama +6 (18% voted early)
Iowa--Obama +34 (14% voted early)
New Mexico--Obama +23 (10% voted early)
North Carolina--Obama +34 (5% voted early)
Ohio--Obama +18 (12% voted early)
Remember that these numbers are only estimates and are subject to same kind of statistical inconsistencies as other polls, such as response bias and small sample sizes (the number of early voters polled in Ohio was only about 60).
In addition, early voters are probably not representative of the state as a whole. These voters tend to be more partisan and already have their minds made up, while the swing voters will probably wait until November 4 (only 1-2 percent of early voters in 2000 and 2004 reported that they would have voted differently if they'd waited until election day). So take these results with a grain of salt.
But, there is no doubt that these numbers are good news for Barack Obama. One thing that these results do show is a massive advantage for Democrats in enthusiasm and voter turnout. These results imply that, as expected, Obama is turning out his base in very large numbers, and so far it looks like John McCain is lagging in rallying up his base.
Bush carried these five states by an average of 6.5% in 2004, and now Obama leads in them by an average of 23% among early voters. That alone is reason for the Obama campaign to celebrate.
Another bit of good news that this result brings us is the fact that early voters tend to be older and more male than the voting population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama, who is strongest among women and younger voters.
From these numbers we can expect a large Democratic turnout on election day, one that McCain and the Republicans might struggle to match, affecting not only the outcome of the presidential race, but also many competitive down-ticket Congressional and Gubernatorial races in favor of the Democrats.
Here are their results among early voters from five key swing states, all of which George W. Bush carried in 2004 (in parentheses are the percentages of respondents in the state who voted early):
Georgia--Obama +6 (18% voted early)
Iowa--Obama +34 (14% voted early)
New Mexico--Obama +23 (10% voted early)
North Carolina--Obama +34 (5% voted early)
Ohio--Obama +18 (12% voted early)
Remember that these numbers are only estimates and are subject to same kind of statistical inconsistencies as other polls, such as response bias and small sample sizes (the number of early voters polled in Ohio was only about 60).
In addition, early voters are probably not representative of the state as a whole. These voters tend to be more partisan and already have their minds made up, while the swing voters will probably wait until November 4 (only 1-2 percent of early voters in 2000 and 2004 reported that they would have voted differently if they'd waited until election day). So take these results with a grain of salt.
But, there is no doubt that these numbers are good news for Barack Obama. One thing that these results do show is a massive advantage for Democrats in enthusiasm and voter turnout. These results imply that, as expected, Obama is turning out his base in very large numbers, and so far it looks like John McCain is lagging in rallying up his base.
Bush carried these five states by an average of 6.5% in 2004, and now Obama leads in them by an average of 23% among early voters. That alone is reason for the Obama campaign to celebrate.
Another bit of good news that this result brings us is the fact that early voters tend to be older and more male than the voting population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama, who is strongest among women and younger voters.
From these numbers we can expect a large Democratic turnout on election day, one that McCain and the Republicans might struggle to match, affecting not only the outcome of the presidential race, but also many competitive down-ticket Congressional and Gubernatorial races in favor of the Democrats.
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