CA-47: Republicans are trying to go where they have not (recently) gone before, and targeting Democratic-leaning districts such as Loretta Sanchez's. The NRCC has recruited state Assemblyman Van Tran--who is Vietnamese--to run against Sanchez, in this heavily Vietnamese district. But Tran got off to a bad start, as he kicked off his campaign in the wrong district--CA-46.
OR-04: Following along those lines, the GOP has recruited Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken (R) to challenge Rep. Pete DeFazio (D). At this point, DeFazio does not look vulnerable, but he has not been seriously challenged in a long time (he ran unopposed in 2008). He is also reportedly considering running for governor, so the prospect of a tough challenger may nudge DeFazio in the direction of a gubernatorial run--and an open seat in this D+2 district would be a good pick-up opportunity for the GOP.
MN-06: Many Democrats are ready to pounce to get another go at ultra-conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) in 2010, and two Democrats jumped in the race this week. The first is Elwyn Tinklenberg, the 2008 Democratic candidate who massively benefited financially from a series of inflammatory remarks that Bachmann made. The other Democrat that entered the race this week was Maureen Reed, the 2006 Independence Party candidate for Lieutenant Governor. The DCCC is not prepared to back either candidate, and expressed joy in the entries of both Democrats in the race against Bachmann.
CO-04: Republicans landed a credible challenger against vulnerable freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D) in the form of state House Minority Leader Cory Gardner. But he will not have the primary field to himself, as University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero has already entered the race.
ID-01: To the disappointment of the Idaho GOP, state Treasurer Ron Crane has opted out of a run against very vulnerable freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D). But the GOP has a deep bench in this dark red district, with former Rep. Bill Sali, state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden and state Sen. John McGee as potential candidates.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Sunday, May 3, 2009
In Case You Missed It...
Here's some notable 2010 election developments since I last posted in early April. Oh yeah, and I'm covering 2010 House election news too now:
PA-Sen: Six-term Republican Sen. Arlen Specter announced that he will switch parties and run as a Democrat in 2010 after seeing abysmal polling that showed him losing by double digits to former Rep. Pat Toomey in the Republican primary. President Obama, Harry Reid, Bob Casey (Pennsylvania's other Democratic senator), and the rest of the Democratic establishment has lined up behind Specter. Democrat Joe Torsella, who announced his candidacy before Specter's switch, says he will stay in the race and Rep. Joe Sestak is considering jumping in the race. Meanwhile, the Republicans are trying to find someone more electable (i.e., moderate) to run against the ultra-conservative Toomey in the GOP primary. So far, they've come up with two names: Rep. Jim Gerlach and former Gov. Tom Ridge--both of whom would be strong recruits.
KY-Sen: After adamantly proclaiming that he would run for re-election in 2010 (despite the will of Senate Republicans), Sen. Jim Bunning (R) has hinted that he might retire next year. He reportedly encouraged Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson to form an exploratory committee to run for his seat, almost anointing him as his successor. Bunning has been known to do unconventional things in the past, so we'll keep an eye out to see if he actually decides to step down.
NH-01: Republicans landed one of their first major recruits for 2010 in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who will be challenging sophomore Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. He does have an advantage in that Manchester in the state's most populous city and he has remained relatively popular in his tenure as mayor--and he also benefits from the fact that Shea-Porter is one of the most vulnerable House Democrats. But Republicans have underestimated Shea-Porter in 2006 and 2008--both of which were Democratic wave elections--so they hope not to make the same mistake again. This district is the more Republican of New Hampshire's two House seats, yet it gave Barack Obama 53% of the vote in 2008.
DE-AL: Rep. Mike Castle (R), a moderate, will face the strongest challenge he has ever had to face in his sixteen years as Delaware's lone representative from former Lieutenant Governor John Carney. Despite the district's Democratic lean, Castle has always won re-election by wide margins, but this time the 70-year-old will have a harder time. Castle has been considering running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010 or just retiring outright. If he does not run for re-election for whatever reason, this seat will be an easy pick-up in 2010 for the Democrats.
IL-10: Rep. Mark Kirk (R), another moderate, drew his first Democratic challenger--state Sen. Michael Bond. Kirk is considering running for Senate in 2010, and if he does, this seat will be an easy pick-up for the Democrats. But if he chooses to run for re-election, it is now guaranteed that he will face a tough challenger--perhaps a tougher challenge than he has faced in 2006 and 2008.
FL-10: The DCCC is touting State Sen. Charlie Justice as a top recruit against Rep. Bill Young (R), another House Republican who is considering retiring. Young has not faced serious competition in quite some time, and a strong candidate like Justice could nudge him in the direction of retirement. If he did retire, the open seat would be a toss-up and would create another opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a seat.
AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, has drawn her first Republican challenger in state Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren. Hendren is in his 70's, and is not expected to give Lincoln a scare, but other Republicans are considering jumping in the race. Lincoln is not incredibly popular back home, and given the right political environment and the right candidate, this race could become competitive.
PA-Sen: Six-term Republican Sen. Arlen Specter announced that he will switch parties and run as a Democrat in 2010 after seeing abysmal polling that showed him losing by double digits to former Rep. Pat Toomey in the Republican primary. President Obama, Harry Reid, Bob Casey (Pennsylvania's other Democratic senator), and the rest of the Democratic establishment has lined up behind Specter. Democrat Joe Torsella, who announced his candidacy before Specter's switch, says he will stay in the race and Rep. Joe Sestak is considering jumping in the race. Meanwhile, the Republicans are trying to find someone more electable (i.e., moderate) to run against the ultra-conservative Toomey in the GOP primary. So far, they've come up with two names: Rep. Jim Gerlach and former Gov. Tom Ridge--both of whom would be strong recruits.
KY-Sen: After adamantly proclaiming that he would run for re-election in 2010 (despite the will of Senate Republicans), Sen. Jim Bunning (R) has hinted that he might retire next year. He reportedly encouraged Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson to form an exploratory committee to run for his seat, almost anointing him as his successor. Bunning has been known to do unconventional things in the past, so we'll keep an eye out to see if he actually decides to step down.
NH-01: Republicans landed one of their first major recruits for 2010 in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who will be challenging sophomore Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. He does have an advantage in that Manchester in the state's most populous city and he has remained relatively popular in his tenure as mayor--and he also benefits from the fact that Shea-Porter is one of the most vulnerable House Democrats. But Republicans have underestimated Shea-Porter in 2006 and 2008--both of which were Democratic wave elections--so they hope not to make the same mistake again. This district is the more Republican of New Hampshire's two House seats, yet it gave Barack Obama 53% of the vote in 2008.
DE-AL: Rep. Mike Castle (R), a moderate, will face the strongest challenge he has ever had to face in his sixteen years as Delaware's lone representative from former Lieutenant Governor John Carney. Despite the district's Democratic lean, Castle has always won re-election by wide margins, but this time the 70-year-old will have a harder time. Castle has been considering running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010 or just retiring outright. If he does not run for re-election for whatever reason, this seat will be an easy pick-up in 2010 for the Democrats.
IL-10: Rep. Mark Kirk (R), another moderate, drew his first Democratic challenger--state Sen. Michael Bond. Kirk is considering running for Senate in 2010, and if he does, this seat will be an easy pick-up for the Democrats. But if he chooses to run for re-election, it is now guaranteed that he will face a tough challenger--perhaps a tougher challenge than he has faced in 2006 and 2008.
FL-10: The DCCC is touting State Sen. Charlie Justice as a top recruit against Rep. Bill Young (R), another House Republican who is considering retiring. Young has not faced serious competition in quite some time, and a strong candidate like Justice could nudge him in the direction of retirement. If he did retire, the open seat would be a toss-up and would create another opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a seat.
AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, has drawn her first Republican challenger in state Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren. Hendren is in his 70's, and is not expected to give Lincoln a scare, but other Republicans are considering jumping in the race. Lincoln is not incredibly popular back home, and given the right political environment and the right candidate, this race could become competitive.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
AK: Palin Won't Challenge Murkowski
Gov. Sarah Palin (R) announced that she will be holding a fundraiser for the re-election campaign of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R)--ending speculation that she will challenge Murkowski in the GOP primary in 2010.
This essentially clears the path for Murkowski to win re-election and makes it so the Republican party will not have to deal with a media-frenzied, expensive and nasty primary next year.
Palin has not yet announced if she plans on running for re-election in 2010 as she gears up for the 2012 presidential race.
This essentially clears the path for Murkowski to win re-election and makes it so the Republican party will not have to deal with a media-frenzied, expensive and nasty primary next year.
Palin has not yet announced if she plans on running for re-election in 2010 as she gears up for the 2012 presidential race.
Monday, April 6, 2009
NY: Gillibrand Raises $2.3 Million
In an email to her supporters, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) announced that she has raised $2.3 million in the two months since she has been appointed.
Gillibrand is proving her mettle as a prodigious fundraiser with this impressive sum. And figures like these may prove to deter other Democrats, such as Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney, from challenging Gillibrand in the primary--and it proves that taking her on won't be cheap.
But as of now, she is still not well-known in the state. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. So she clearly has some work to do to pick up these lagging name recognition numbers.
The poll also found that Gillibrand narrowly trails McCarthy in a Democratic primary match-up, 33% to 29%, but--much like Gillibrand--68% don't know enough about McCarthy to form an opinion of her.
In a general election match-up, Gillibrand leads Rep. Peter King (R-NY) 40% to 28%.
Gillibrand is proving her mettle as a prodigious fundraiser with this impressive sum. And figures like these may prove to deter other Democrats, such as Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney, from challenging Gillibrand in the primary--and it proves that taking her on won't be cheap.
But as of now, she is still not well-known in the state. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. So she clearly has some work to do to pick up these lagging name recognition numbers.
The poll also found that Gillibrand narrowly trails McCarthy in a Democratic primary match-up, 33% to 29%, but--much like Gillibrand--68% don't know enough about McCarthy to form an opinion of her.
In a general election match-up, Gillibrand leads Rep. Peter King (R-NY) 40% to 28%.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
FL: Mack Won't Run For Senate
Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) wrote a letter to Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) today informing him that he will not be running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010, according to the Associated Press.
Crist is openly considering running for the seat next year instead of seeking re-election as governor, and Mack had been one the top Florida Republicans publicly taking a look at jumping in--but instead, he is throwing his full support behind Crist.
Mack wrote to Crist: "I will be your strongest supporter and champion -- regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate."
This further fuels the speculation that Crist is indeed planning on running for Senate rather than for another term in Tallahassee. The only Republican who might stand up to Crist in the GOP primary is former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, who formed an exploratory committee earlier this month. But he has said earlier that if Crist jumped in the race, he would probably run for governor.
Whether it is Rubio or somebody else, Crist--if he runs--will almost undoubtedly face some sort of opposition from the right in the Republican primary, as he has been getting a bit chummy with President Obama and the left of late.
Crist is openly considering running for the seat next year instead of seeking re-election as governor, and Mack had been one the top Florida Republicans publicly taking a look at jumping in--but instead, he is throwing his full support behind Crist.
Mack wrote to Crist: "I will be your strongest supporter and champion -- regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate."
This further fuels the speculation that Crist is indeed planning on running for Senate rather than for another term in Tallahassee. The only Republican who might stand up to Crist in the GOP primary is former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, who formed an exploratory committee earlier this month. But he has said earlier that if Crist jumped in the race, he would probably run for governor.
Whether it is Rubio or somebody else, Crist--if he runs--will almost undoubtedly face some sort of opposition from the right in the Republican primary, as he has been getting a bit chummy with President Obama and the left of late.
Is Chris Dodd the New Jim Bunning?
The results of a new Quinnipiac poll should be sending shivers down the spines of Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and the DSCC. The survey finds Dodd in deep trouble for 2010, with only 33% of voters approving of the job he is doing and 58% disapproving--truly scary sign for a 30-year incumbent, especially one in a blue state like Connecticut.
A whopping 74% blamed Dodd for the AIG bonuses, while 54% don’t believe Dodd is honest and trustworthy. Dodd also only garners the support of half of his own party.
He also shows some poor numbers when matched up against some Republicans in the general election. He trails former Rep. Rob Simmons, the likely Republican nominee, by 16 points, 50-34. He also trails little-known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri 41-37 and former ambassador Tom Foley 43-35.
These terrible numbers can be attributed to the firestorm of criticism regarding his role in the AIG bonuses fiasco, his ties to Countrywide, and his failed 2008 presidential bid that seemed to piss off his constituents in Connecticut.
Because we are still in the midst of the financial crisis and Dodd plays a central role in the process of doling out money to banks and companies like AIG as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, we can be sure that these numbers aren't likely to improve much in the near future.
Thus, Dodd's position is starting to look more and more like Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY). Both are clearly the most endangered incumbents of their respective parties and have extremely high negatives. Both are from states that--given their political leanings--should give them inherent advantages for re-election. And in both cases, another candidate from their party would have a better shot of retaining the seat that they would.
The Republican establishment not-so-secretly tried to get Bunning to retire, and it turned into a nasty back-and-forth between Bunning and the leaders of his own party. Their next thought was to possibly support a primary opponent to Bunning, but the Senator threatened to sue the NRSC for going against their pledge of supporting Republican incumbents, turning into yet another nasty exchange. Finally, NRSC chairman John Cornyn publicly agreed to back Bunning in 2010, but the situation was handled very poorly by Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and there still appears to be bad blood between them and Bunning.
The Democrats can learn from the mistakes of the way that the GOP handled Bunning when trying to figure out what to do about Dodd. They have already said that they will not try to ask him to step down before 2010. Said one senior Democratic operative: “It’s up to Senator Dodd, there’s no indication that he’s willing to do that. We’re not going to have a Jim Bunning situation our hands."
Another option they might have to get around having Dodd run against someone like Simmons in 2010 is to primary him, presumably with a popular statewide official like state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, but Democratic insiders seem to think that there is no way Blumenthal would challenge Dodd in a primary.
Some other options for Democratic alternatives to Dodd can be found in the state's congressional delegation. Rep. John Larson would be unlikely to run because of his position in the House leadership, and Rep. Jim Himes has direct ties to the very financial world that has recently come under fire. But Reps. Rosa DeLauro, Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney could all be compelling alternatives.
But the only other option besides asking Dodd to step down and supporting a primary challenger that the DSCC has left--and the one they will most likely take--is to rally around the embattled Senator and hope that this is his point of rock bottom. His numbers have nowhere to go but up...right?
Anyway, I think that there is a good possibility that Dodd and Bunning--now indisputably the two most vulnerable incumbents of the 2010 cycle--will both lose their seats next November, effectively canceling each other's losses out. If that is the case, the Democrats will have to look elsewhere for their 60th seat.
P.S. I'm officially moving this race into the "Toss-Up" category.
Update: When asked if he might seek a new candidate, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez replied, "Are you serious? Chris Dodd is going to be re-elected. He's a great senator."
A whopping 74% blamed Dodd for the AIG bonuses, while 54% don’t believe Dodd is honest and trustworthy. Dodd also only garners the support of half of his own party.
He also shows some poor numbers when matched up against some Republicans in the general election. He trails former Rep. Rob Simmons, the likely Republican nominee, by 16 points, 50-34. He also trails little-known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri 41-37 and former ambassador Tom Foley 43-35.
These terrible numbers can be attributed to the firestorm of criticism regarding his role in the AIG bonuses fiasco, his ties to Countrywide, and his failed 2008 presidential bid that seemed to piss off his constituents in Connecticut.
Because we are still in the midst of the financial crisis and Dodd plays a central role in the process of doling out money to banks and companies like AIG as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, we can be sure that these numbers aren't likely to improve much in the near future.
Thus, Dodd's position is starting to look more and more like Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY). Both are clearly the most endangered incumbents of their respective parties and have extremely high negatives. Both are from states that--given their political leanings--should give them inherent advantages for re-election. And in both cases, another candidate from their party would have a better shot of retaining the seat that they would.
The Republican establishment not-so-secretly tried to get Bunning to retire, and it turned into a nasty back-and-forth between Bunning and the leaders of his own party. Their next thought was to possibly support a primary opponent to Bunning, but the Senator threatened to sue the NRSC for going against their pledge of supporting Republican incumbents, turning into yet another nasty exchange. Finally, NRSC chairman John Cornyn publicly agreed to back Bunning in 2010, but the situation was handled very poorly by Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and there still appears to be bad blood between them and Bunning.
The Democrats can learn from the mistakes of the way that the GOP handled Bunning when trying to figure out what to do about Dodd. They have already said that they will not try to ask him to step down before 2010. Said one senior Democratic operative: “It’s up to Senator Dodd, there’s no indication that he’s willing to do that. We’re not going to have a Jim Bunning situation our hands."
Another option they might have to get around having Dodd run against someone like Simmons in 2010 is to primary him, presumably with a popular statewide official like state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, but Democratic insiders seem to think that there is no way Blumenthal would challenge Dodd in a primary.
Some other options for Democratic alternatives to Dodd can be found in the state's congressional delegation. Rep. John Larson would be unlikely to run because of his position in the House leadership, and Rep. Jim Himes has direct ties to the very financial world that has recently come under fire. But Reps. Rosa DeLauro, Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney could all be compelling alternatives.
But the only other option besides asking Dodd to step down and supporting a primary challenger that the DSCC has left--and the one they will most likely take--is to rally around the embattled Senator and hope that this is his point of rock bottom. His numbers have nowhere to go but up...right?
Anyway, I think that there is a good possibility that Dodd and Bunning--now indisputably the two most vulnerable incumbents of the 2010 cycle--will both lose their seats next November, effectively canceling each other's losses out. If that is the case, the Democrats will have to look elsewhere for their 60th seat.
P.S. I'm officially moving this race into the "Toss-Up" category.
Update: When asked if he might seek a new candidate, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez replied, "Are you serious? Chris Dodd is going to be re-elected. He's a great senator."
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
No Winner Yet in NY-20
After a long, bitterly fought, expensive special election campaign to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in New York's 20th congressional district--we still have no winner.
Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by 65 votes, 77,344 to 77,279, with 100% of precincts reporting. That lead is merely symbolic at this point, because between 6,000 and 10,000 absentee and military ballots have yet to be counted, and probably won't be counted until at least April 13.
Neither side won or lost big here, but in this case a tie goes to the Democrats. But overall, maintaining the status quo is not good news for the Republicans, especially in a conservative upstate district in NY-20. They invested a lot of money into this race, and they really should have won back a district that should rightfully be theirs.
So neither side really gets to spin this their way--Republicans can't say that this is a sign of the people's rejections of Obama's policies, and Democrats can't say this is validation of their leadership.
This one isn't over and won't be for at least two weeks, but expect updates and analysis of the results of this race to be few and far between until then.
Update: Due to the carelessness of some election officials and some recounting, Scott Murphy's lead has shrunk to 13 votes. The Scorecard reports: "Three counties--Essex, Greene and Delaware--haven't re-canvassed the vote yet, and won't do so until later in the week." That could alter the vote total even more.
Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by 65 votes, 77,344 to 77,279, with 100% of precincts reporting. That lead is merely symbolic at this point, because between 6,000 and 10,000 absentee and military ballots have yet to be counted, and probably won't be counted until at least April 13.
Neither side won or lost big here, but in this case a tie goes to the Democrats. But overall, maintaining the status quo is not good news for the Republicans, especially in a conservative upstate district in NY-20. They invested a lot of money into this race, and they really should have won back a district that should rightfully be theirs.
So neither side really gets to spin this their way--Republicans can't say that this is a sign of the people's rejections of Obama's policies, and Democrats can't say this is validation of their leadership.
This one isn't over and won't be for at least two weeks, but expect updates and analysis of the results of this race to be few and far between until then.
Update: Due to the carelessness of some election officials and some recounting, Scott Murphy's lead has shrunk to 13 votes. The Scorecard reports: "Three counties--Essex, Greene and Delaware--haven't re-canvassed the vote yet, and won't do so until later in the week." That could alter the vote total even more.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Hodes Leads Sununu in NH; Dodd Draws Second Challenger
A new American Research Group poll out of New Hampshire shows Rep. Paul Hodes, the likely Democratic nominee, leading former Sen. John Sununu (R) 42% to 36%.
Further, Hodes leads Sununu 38% to 31% among independents--a tell-tale sign for the rest of the independently-minded (if not libertarian) state.
The Scorecard reports: "Sununu has not yet announced his intentions, but New Hampshire GOP operatives are skeptical he will run after losing his seat to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen last year. These numbers probably won’t encourage him."
Over in Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd (D)--arguably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2010--drew a second challenger today in the form of state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R).
Caligiuri, a conservative, will first have to get past former Rep. Rob Simmons, a moderate, in the Republican primary. That will be no easy task, as the GOP establishment seems to be behind Simmons, believing that in a blue state like Connecticut, a moderate Republican will have a better shot at the seat rather than a conservative.
Further, Hodes leads Sununu 38% to 31% among independents--a tell-tale sign for the rest of the independently-minded (if not libertarian) state.
The Scorecard reports: "Sununu has not yet announced his intentions, but New Hampshire GOP operatives are skeptical he will run after losing his seat to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen last year. These numbers probably won’t encourage him."
Over in Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd (D)--arguably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2010--drew a second challenger today in the form of state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R).
Caligiuri, a conservative, will first have to get past former Rep. Rob Simmons, a moderate, in the Republican primary. That will be no easy task, as the GOP establishment seems to be behind Simmons, believing that in a blue state like Connecticut, a moderate Republican will have a better shot at the seat rather than a conservative.
Monday, March 30, 2009
A Recap of NY-20
Tuesday's special election in New York's 20th congressional district--for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D) old House seat--is all the buzz right now, so I thought I'd spend today recapping everyone on what the outlook is for Team Red and Team Blue going into tomorrow.
The race features Democrat Scott Murphy--a businessman and venture capitalist (i.e., rich guy)--squaring off against Republican Jim Tedisco--the state Assembly Minority Leader.
NY-20 is pretty evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with the GOP having the slight edge in voter registration. The district has typically leaned slightly to the right, but Barack Obama carried the district 51% to 48% in 2008 and Gillibrand won her reelection bid by an impressive margin--showing that there are a significant number of cross-over Republicans.
But as is the case with all special elections, ground game and getting the base out to vote will be the deciding factors--factors which were originally thought would favor Tedisco.
Last month, Tedisco led by 12% in a Siena poll and was showing no signs of vulnerability. But then as the campaign went on, that all started to change. His biggest mistake was refusing to take a side regarding President Obama's stimulus package--which made him look like he had no backbone and was not willing to make tough decisions. He later came out against it.
Two weeks passed and he significantly dropped in another Siena poll, which showed that he now only led Murphy by 4%. Since then it's been nothing but good press for Murphy and bad press for Tedisco. Obama cut a radio ad for Murphy--getting him some positive media coverage in the district--while the Libertarian candidate was forced out of the race and endorsed Murphy, which was a slap in the face to Tedisco.
The most recent poll from Siena shows Murphy with a 4% lead over Tedisco, just outside the margin of error. Internal polls from both sides yielded similar results and show the race to be a complete toss-up.
So Tedisco's relatively strong advantage at the outset of this campaign has essentially evaporated leading up to election day, so much so that he revamped his entire campaign two weeks ago. And from the recent polling, it appears that undecided voters are breaking for Murphy.
But be wary with all of this poll analysis because it is notoriously difficult to poll accurately for special elections, mainly because of the unpredictable turnout.
Either way this thing turns out--and it really could go either way--the victorious party is going to spin the hell out of it. If Tedisco wins, the GOP will tout it as a rejection of Obama's policies, and how a district represented by a Democrat flipped to a Republican because the people no longer support him and his "big spending." If Murphy wins, the Democrats will trumpet it as support for Obama's presidency thus far.
But in reality, the Republican have much more to lose than the Democrats from this election.
The Republicans were expected to win this race, and it would be a terrible sign for a party who is already in the midst of a civil war and an identity crisis to suffer this big of a moral (and financial) defeat. Republicans would call for RNC chairman Michael Steele's head, and start pointing fingers at each other--further igniting the civil war within the party. Conservatives would blame Tedisco for being too moderate, and the bickering and scapegoating would self-perpetuate.
If Murphy loses, the Democrats lose a House seat--which they can afford to lose with their large majority--and they waste some money and let the Republican base cheer for a day. But since their party is currently stable and united around Obama, they won't go into panic mode, but will just use this race as a lesson for the 2010 midterms.
The race features Democrat Scott Murphy--a businessman and venture capitalist (i.e., rich guy)--squaring off against Republican Jim Tedisco--the state Assembly Minority Leader.
NY-20 is pretty evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with the GOP having the slight edge in voter registration. The district has typically leaned slightly to the right, but Barack Obama carried the district 51% to 48% in 2008 and Gillibrand won her reelection bid by an impressive margin--showing that there are a significant number of cross-over Republicans.
But as is the case with all special elections, ground game and getting the base out to vote will be the deciding factors--factors which were originally thought would favor Tedisco.
Last month, Tedisco led by 12% in a Siena poll and was showing no signs of vulnerability. But then as the campaign went on, that all started to change. His biggest mistake was refusing to take a side regarding President Obama's stimulus package--which made him look like he had no backbone and was not willing to make tough decisions. He later came out against it.
Two weeks passed and he significantly dropped in another Siena poll, which showed that he now only led Murphy by 4%. Since then it's been nothing but good press for Murphy and bad press for Tedisco. Obama cut a radio ad for Murphy--getting him some positive media coverage in the district--while the Libertarian candidate was forced out of the race and endorsed Murphy, which was a slap in the face to Tedisco.
The most recent poll from Siena shows Murphy with a 4% lead over Tedisco, just outside the margin of error. Internal polls from both sides yielded similar results and show the race to be a complete toss-up.
So Tedisco's relatively strong advantage at the outset of this campaign has essentially evaporated leading up to election day, so much so that he revamped his entire campaign two weeks ago. And from the recent polling, it appears that undecided voters are breaking for Murphy.
But be wary with all of this poll analysis because it is notoriously difficult to poll accurately for special elections, mainly because of the unpredictable turnout.
Either way this thing turns out--and it really could go either way--the victorious party is going to spin the hell out of it. If Tedisco wins, the GOP will tout it as a rejection of Obama's policies, and how a district represented by a Democrat flipped to a Republican because the people no longer support him and his "big spending." If Murphy wins, the Democrats will trumpet it as support for Obama's presidency thus far.
But in reality, the Republican have much more to lose than the Democrats from this election.
The Republicans were expected to win this race, and it would be a terrible sign for a party who is already in the midst of a civil war and an identity crisis to suffer this big of a moral (and financial) defeat. Republicans would call for RNC chairman Michael Steele's head, and start pointing fingers at each other--further igniting the civil war within the party. Conservatives would blame Tedisco for being too moderate, and the bickering and scapegoating would self-perpetuate.
If Murphy loses, the Democrats lose a House seat--which they can afford to lose with their large majority--and they waste some money and let the Republican base cheer for a day. But since their party is currently stable and united around Obama, they won't go into panic mode, but will just use this race as a lesson for the 2010 midterms.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
KY: A Democratic Proxy War's A-Brewin'
It appears that Kentucky Democrats are already taking sides in what is likely to be a hotly contested primary to take on the highly vulnerable Sen. Jim Bunning (R) next year.
In a rather unsurprising move, Gov. Steve Beshear (D) endorsed his lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, for his 2010 Senate campaign--despite the fact that Mongiardo will likely face prominent opposition for the Democratic nomination.
Politico reports that state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) is set to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks. Conway has recently talked with two other Democrats who have been considering jumping in the race--state Auditor Crit Luallen and Rep. Ben Chandler--and it appears that they will stay out of the race and line up behind him.
Thus, a proxy fight emerges between Beshear-Mongiardo and Conway-Luallen-Chandler. The uglier this fight gets, the better it is for Bunning, who will need all the help he can get to win what will be the toughest re-election challenge of his life.
In a rather unsurprising move, Gov. Steve Beshear (D) endorsed his lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, for his 2010 Senate campaign--despite the fact that Mongiardo will likely face prominent opposition for the Democratic nomination.
Politico reports that state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) is set to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks. Conway has recently talked with two other Democrats who have been considering jumping in the race--state Auditor Crit Luallen and Rep. Ben Chandler--and it appears that they will stay out of the race and line up behind him.
Thus, a proxy fight emerges between Beshear-Mongiardo and Conway-Luallen-Chandler. The uglier this fight gets, the better it is for Bunning, who will need all the help he can get to win what will be the toughest re-election challenge of his life.
Friday, March 27, 2009
MO: Carnahan Leading in GOP Internal Poll
A new Republican internal poll commissioned by Wilson Research Strategies out of Missouri shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) leading both of her potential Republican opponents--Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman--for the state's open Senate seat in 2010. The poll was commissioned as Republican internal poll.
Carnahan leads Blunt 47% to 44%, and she leads Steelman 47% to 39%. The survey has a 4% margin of error. The poll also found that Blunt has very high negatives among Democrats and Independents, presumably from his partisan past as a House Republican leader.
On the Democratic side, Carnahan will likely not face any trouble in the primary, and with the announcement of her candidacy she immediately became the probable Democratic nominee.
On the Republican side, things won't be that simple. Blunt has already announced his candidacy and Steelman has shown signs that she will jump in as well, setting up a fierce and probably nasty GOP primary that could drive up the negatives and drain the cash of the eventual nominee.
The Republican establishment is lining up behind Blunt, while Steelman would run as an Washington outsider and a reformer. The two have already had nasty exchanges (Steelman called Blunt "another white guy in a suit") even though Steelman has not officially entered the contest.
The bloodier the fight is for the Republican nomination, the better the chances are that Robin Carnahan will be headed off to Washington in 2011.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
CT: Dodd Edges Out Simmons in Poll
A new Research 2000 poll finds that Sen. Chris Dodd (D) is vulnerable in his 2010 re-election race, but his outlook is not as bleak as the recent negative headlines and controversies surrounding the Senator would indicate.
His favorable-unfavorable numbers clock in at 47-40, which is not great, but that fact that he is still in the black in the midst of all the this controversy is good news for Dodd.
When matched up against former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) (who has already announced his candidacy and started taking shots at Dodd), Dodd edges him out 45% to 40%. Simmons' favorable-unfavorable clocks in at 41-18.
When matched up against the even lesser known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd trounces him 51% to 30%.
Is this great news for the Dodd camp? Absolutely not. Being under 50% as a well-entrenched and long-standing incumbent is never good news.
But with the recent intense outlash against Dodd--who has the displeasure of being the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee in a time of bank failure--Team Dodd will take any kind of lead over someone like Simmons, who led Dodd in a poll earlier this month.
His favorable-unfavorable numbers clock in at 47-40, which is not great, but that fact that he is still in the black in the midst of all the this controversy is good news for Dodd.
When matched up against former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) (who has already announced his candidacy and started taking shots at Dodd), Dodd edges him out 45% to 40%. Simmons' favorable-unfavorable clocks in at 41-18.
When matched up against the even lesser known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd trounces him 51% to 30%.
Is this great news for the Dodd camp? Absolutely not. Being under 50% as a well-entrenched and long-standing incumbent is never good news.
But with the recent intense outlash against Dodd--who has the displeasure of being the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee in a time of bank failure--Team Dodd will take any kind of lead over someone like Simmons, who led Dodd in a poll earlier this month.
Thursday Catch-Up
Pennsylvania: A new Quinnipiac poll shows former Rep. Pat Toomey leading Sen. Arlen Specter 41% to 27% in a Republican primary match-up, with 28% of Republicans undecided. It's no surprise that Specter has already been jolting to the right.
Arkansas: A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) leading two potential Republican challengers, former US Attorney Tim Griffin and state Sen. Gilbert Baker. Lincoln leads Griffin 46-38 and leads Baker 48-37. However, these numbers are not all entirely encouraging for Lincoln, as she is under 50% in both contests and she only has a 45-40 approve-disapprove rating.
North Carolina: This is the last poll of this post, I promise. A new Civitas poll has state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) narrowly leading incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R), 41% to 38%. But note that 57% of respondents have no opinion of Burr, so take this poll with a grain of salt.
Connecticut: CNBC host Larry Kudlow announced on his show that he will not be running against Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in 2010. Kudlow, who would have run as a Republican, might have been scared off by the fact that a top-tier Republican candidate--former Rep. Rob Simmons--has already jumped in the race. But Kudlow maintains that he never seriously entertained the possibility of running.
California: In what must be a sigh of relief to California Democrats, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in 2010. Said Schwarzenegger: "I am not running for anything, so no one could threaten me, because I'm not running for Senate, I'm not running for Congress, I'm not running for another term as governor." There you have it folks. Looks like the only Republican Boxer has to potentially worry about is former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and recent polls have shown that even she wouldn't be a threat.
Arkansas: A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) leading two potential Republican challengers, former US Attorney Tim Griffin and state Sen. Gilbert Baker. Lincoln leads Griffin 46-38 and leads Baker 48-37. However, these numbers are not all entirely encouraging for Lincoln, as she is under 50% in both contests and she only has a 45-40 approve-disapprove rating.
North Carolina: This is the last poll of this post, I promise. A new Civitas poll has state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) narrowly leading incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R), 41% to 38%. But note that 57% of respondents have no opinion of Burr, so take this poll with a grain of salt.
Connecticut: CNBC host Larry Kudlow announced on his show that he will not be running against Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in 2010. Kudlow, who would have run as a Republican, might have been scared off by the fact that a top-tier Republican candidate--former Rep. Rob Simmons--has already jumped in the race. But Kudlow maintains that he never seriously entertained the possibility of running.
California: In what must be a sigh of relief to California Democrats, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in 2010. Said Schwarzenegger: "I am not running for anything, so no one could threaten me, because I'm not running for Senate, I'm not running for Congress, I'm not running for another term as governor." There you have it folks. Looks like the only Republican Boxer has to potentially worry about is former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and recent polls have shown that even she wouldn't be a threat.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
NC: Burr Still Looks Vulnerable
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina shows that incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) continues to look vulnerable as he gears up for his first re-election challenge in 2010.
The first bit of troubling numbers lie in his approval ratings. Only 35% of respondents approve of his performance while 32% disapprove and 33% have no opinion either way. That means one-third of North Carolina voters don't know enough about him to have any kind of opinion of him after more than four years in office. It's really bad if you have to spread awareness about yourself as an incumbent.
The next bit of troubling numbers come in the hypothetical general election match-ups. When matched up against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), Burr leads 43% to 35%. When matched up against a generic Democratic opponent Burr fares worse, leading 42% to 38%.
Burr has consistently been under the 50% threshold in all of the polls released so far, a tell-tale sign of vulnerability and a chance for the Democrats to flip yet another southern seat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to get state Attorney Gen. Roy Cooper (D) to run, seeing him as their strongest challenger to Burr.
In an earlier PPP poll Cooper led Burr by 5 points, doing much better against the Senator than any other Democrat. So far Cooper has said that he is still considering jumping in the race, but he will wait a few more months before a final decision.
The first bit of troubling numbers lie in his approval ratings. Only 35% of respondents approve of his performance while 32% disapprove and 33% have no opinion either way. That means one-third of North Carolina voters don't know enough about him to have any kind of opinion of him after more than four years in office. It's really bad if you have to spread awareness about yourself as an incumbent.
The next bit of troubling numbers come in the hypothetical general election match-ups. When matched up against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), Burr leads 43% to 35%. When matched up against a generic Democratic opponent Burr fares worse, leading 42% to 38%.
Burr has consistently been under the 50% threshold in all of the polls released so far, a tell-tale sign of vulnerability and a chance for the Democrats to flip yet another southern seat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to get state Attorney Gen. Roy Cooper (D) to run, seeing him as their strongest challenger to Burr.
In an earlier PPP poll Cooper led Burr by 5 points, doing much better against the Senator than any other Democrat. So far Cooper has said that he is still considering jumping in the race, but he will wait a few more months before a final decision.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
OH: Poll Shows Candidates With Low Name ID
A new Quinnipiac poll out of Ohio shows that most voters are unfamiliar with the major contenders for the state's open Senate seat.
In a Republican primary, former Rep. Rob Portman leads state Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14%, with 52% undecided. Portman has already announced his candidacy, has the establishment support, and is widely expected to be the GOP nominee. Taylor has not made her intentions clear yet, but has not ruled out a run.
In a Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 18% to 14%, with 46% undecided. Both Fisher and Brunner have already formally announced their candidacies, setting up a competitive primary with lots of undecided voters left to win over.
Here are the head-to-head numbers:
Fisher--41%
Portman--33%
Fisher--41%
Taylor--31%
Brunner--39%
Portman--34%
Brunner--38%
Taylor--31%
It looks like either Democrat starts off with the slight advantage over either Republican, but it is still very very early and the name identification is low for all four of the aforementioned candidates.
67% of Ohioans don't know who Portman is, while over half of voters are not familiar with Fisher or Brunner. Clearly these candidates have a lot of room to work with to improve their numbers.
So until name identification shoots up for these three, we can basically ignore the majority of results of polls for this race.
In a Republican primary, former Rep. Rob Portman leads state Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14%, with 52% undecided. Portman has already announced his candidacy, has the establishment support, and is widely expected to be the GOP nominee. Taylor has not made her intentions clear yet, but has not ruled out a run.
In a Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 18% to 14%, with 46% undecided. Both Fisher and Brunner have already formally announced their candidacies, setting up a competitive primary with lots of undecided voters left to win over.
Here are the head-to-head numbers:
Fisher--41%
Portman--33%
Fisher--41%
Taylor--31%
Brunner--39%
Portman--34%
Brunner--38%
Taylor--31%
It looks like either Democrat starts off with the slight advantage over either Republican, but it is still very very early and the name identification is low for all four of the aforementioned candidates.
67% of Ohioans don't know who Portman is, while over half of voters are not familiar with Fisher or Brunner. Clearly these candidates have a lot of room to work with to improve their numbers.
So until name identification shoots up for these three, we can basically ignore the majority of results of polls for this race.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Monday Recap
Connecticut: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), emboldened by a recent poll that showed him running evenly with Sen. Chris Dodd (D), announced that he will be challenging the longtime incumbent in 2010. Simmons was undoubtedly the NRSC's top recruit to run against Dodd, and Simmons' entry in the race is a huge get for them. Dodd will now be one of the NRSC's top targets to take down in 2010. In other Connecticut Senate news, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) announced that he will back Dodd in 2010 even thought Dodd supported Ned Lamont--Lieberman's Democratic rival--in 2006.
New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced that she will not run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat in 2010. Shea-Porter was reportedly taking a serious look at the race and her candidacy was attracting much speculation. But now that she's out of the picture, it looks like Rep. Paul Hodes (D)--who has already announced his candidacy--is the likely Democratic nominee for the seat. No Republican candidates have emerged yet, but it appears as though the GOP's bench is pretty thin.
Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R)--who is plagued by his involvement in the 2007 DC Madam prostitution scandal--caught a big break this weekend when Family Research Council President Tony Perkins (R) announced that he would not challenge Vitter in the 2010 GOP primary and that he will be supporting the Senator. Perkins would have have been a formidable opponent with both his strong conservative bona fides and strong institutional support. He is the second Republican to back down from a primary challenge to Vitter in recent weeks as former Rep. John Cooksey withdrew his name from consideration earlier this month. Now only one big-name Republican--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne--is still considering challenging Vitter in the GOP primary.
California: A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading two Republicans--Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina--by comfortable margins. Boxer leads Schwarzenegger 50-34 and she leads Fiorina 47-38. This poll confirms the results of a Field poll released last week which showed Boxer leading these two Republicans by similar margins.
New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced that she will not run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat in 2010. Shea-Porter was reportedly taking a serious look at the race and her candidacy was attracting much speculation. But now that she's out of the picture, it looks like Rep. Paul Hodes (D)--who has already announced his candidacy--is the likely Democratic nominee for the seat. No Republican candidates have emerged yet, but it appears as though the GOP's bench is pretty thin.
Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R)--who is plagued by his involvement in the 2007 DC Madam prostitution scandal--caught a big break this weekend when Family Research Council President Tony Perkins (R) announced that he would not challenge Vitter in the 2010 GOP primary and that he will be supporting the Senator. Perkins would have have been a formidable opponent with both his strong conservative bona fides and strong institutional support. He is the second Republican to back down from a primary challenge to Vitter in recent weeks as former Rep. John Cooksey withdrew his name from consideration earlier this month. Now only one big-name Republican--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne--is still considering challenging Vitter in the GOP primary.
California: A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading two Republicans--Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina--by comfortable margins. Boxer leads Schwarzenegger 50-34 and she leads Fiorina 47-38. This poll confirms the results of a Field poll released last week which showed Boxer leading these two Republicans by similar margins.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Tuesday Rundown
Connecticut: A new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in some serious trouble in his 2010 bid for re-election. Dodd trails former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) 43% to 42% in a hypothetical match-up, while he fares better against other Republicans such as CNBC host Larry Kudlow and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri. Simmons appears to be leaning towards running against Dodd next year, spelling out trouble for the Senator. The only good news for Dodd in this poll is that his approval-disapproval rating jumped to 49-40 from a 41-48 rating in February.
Delaware: A new PPP poll has more bad news for Democrats as it shows that statewide Rep. Mike Castle (R) would lead state Attorney General Beau Biden (D) 44% to 36% in a hypothetical match-up for the open Senate seat once held by Beau's father, Joe. Neither candidate has announced their plans for 2010. So if Castle (who is moderate) ran, he could have a real shot of flipping the seat, but he is 71 years old and we have not yet heard whether or not he is seriously mulling a run, despite pleas from John Cornyn. If Castle passes on the race, we can be sure that the Democrats will hold on to this seat--as the GOP has a weak bench in Delaware outside of Castle.
Pennsylvania: Sen. Arlen Specter (R) caught a big break today when conservative activist Peg Luksik (R) told the Johnstown Tribune-Democrat that she is planning on running against him in 2010. Now, this may seem like bad news for Specter on the surface as Luksik has had varying amounts of success in previous runs for statewide office. But given the fact that former Rep. Pat Toomey (R)--a fellow conservative--has all but declared his candidacy, Specter has a better chance of sneaking through the Republican primary with a plurality of moderate Republicans while Toomey and Luksik split the conservative vote. In Specter's mind, the more votes Luksik draws away from Toomey, the better.
Delaware: A new PPP poll has more bad news for Democrats as it shows that statewide Rep. Mike Castle (R) would lead state Attorney General Beau Biden (D) 44% to 36% in a hypothetical match-up for the open Senate seat once held by Beau's father, Joe. Neither candidate has announced their plans for 2010. So if Castle (who is moderate) ran, he could have a real shot of flipping the seat, but he is 71 years old and we have not yet heard whether or not he is seriously mulling a run, despite pleas from John Cornyn. If Castle passes on the race, we can be sure that the Democrats will hold on to this seat--as the GOP has a weak bench in Delaware outside of Castle.
Pennsylvania: Sen. Arlen Specter (R) caught a big break today when conservative activist Peg Luksik (R) told the Johnstown Tribune-Democrat that she is planning on running against him in 2010. Now, this may seem like bad news for Specter on the surface as Luksik has had varying amounts of success in previous runs for statewide office. But given the fact that former Rep. Pat Toomey (R)--a fellow conservative--has all but declared his candidacy, Specter has a better chance of sneaking through the Republican primary with a plurality of moderate Republicans while Toomey and Luksik split the conservative vote. In Specter's mind, the more votes Luksik draws away from Toomey, the better.
Monday, March 9, 2009
NC: Shuler Won't Run Against Burr
Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC) has said that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) in 2010, according the Associated Press.
Shuler is considered to be a conservative Democrat, and is a member of the Blue Dog coalition in the House. His center-right political leanings would have been appealing in a statewide Senate race, and he has good name recognition across the state and "broad support in his western North Carolina district," which is very conservative.
His choice to stay in the House must be a sigh of relief to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee because Shuler's district would almost undoubtedly elect a Republican in his absence. He won re-election in 2008 year by a margin of 62% to 36%.
This move appears to free up a run for state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D), and it appears at this point that he would face no serious primary challengers if he jumped in the race. His only other potentially competitive primary opponents were former state Treasurer Richard Moore (who has said he has no interest in the race) and Shuler.
But so far Cooper has stayed mum on the subject--but even if he passes on the race, the Democrats have a deep bench in the state, and they will certainly put up a strong candidate against the vulnerable Burr next year.
Shuler is considered to be a conservative Democrat, and is a member of the Blue Dog coalition in the House. His center-right political leanings would have been appealing in a statewide Senate race, and he has good name recognition across the state and "broad support in his western North Carolina district," which is very conservative.
His choice to stay in the House must be a sigh of relief to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee because Shuler's district would almost undoubtedly elect a Republican in his absence. He won re-election in 2008 year by a margin of 62% to 36%.
This move appears to free up a run for state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D), and it appears at this point that he would face no serious primary challengers if he jumped in the race. His only other potentially competitive primary opponents were former state Treasurer Richard Moore (who has said he has no interest in the race) and Shuler.
But so far Cooper has stayed mum on the subject--but even if he passes on the race, the Democrats have a deep bench in the state, and they will certainly put up a strong candidate against the vulnerable Burr next year.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
PA: Will Specter Switch Parties?
The Hill has an interesting article on Sen. Arlen Specter's (R-PA) options for what will most likely be the political challenge of his life in his 2010 re-election bid.
Specter will face former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in the Republican primary, a "conservative firebrand" that came within 7,000 votes of taking down Specter in the 2004 GOP primary and one that will likely prove an even bigger threat to Specter this time around. But last time, Specter had the support of President Bush, then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), and most of the Republican establishment. This time, the RNC is threatening to hold funds from him and the state Republicans' dissatisfaction with him has grown exponentially in recent years. This time, it looks like he is alone.
Specter has always drawn much of his support from independents, moderate Republicans and many of the state's Democrats--three groups that have fueled his re-election victories for decades. But many (hundreds of thousands) of the state's Independents and moderate Republicans have registered with the Democratic Party since the 2008 election, which hurts Specter in the closed Republican primary, in which only registered Republicans can vote. So the Republican electorate is much more conservative than it was in 2004. His buddies in the middle can't help him out in the primary.
So then, the prospect of Specter switching parties comes up. Pennsylvania law prohibits him from pulling a Lieberman--which is having the option of falling back and running as an independent should he lose in the primary.
But one option that he does have, according to this article, is to switch his party affiliation before the election and run either as an Independent or Democrat. He would probably have a better shot of beating Toomey--who is viewed as too right-wing for a bluish purple state like Pennsylvania--if he ran as an Independent or Democrat (if he did that he would still have to win the Democratic nomination which is no easy feat).
But in a three-way race with Toomey as the GOP candidate, Specter as an Independent, and a Democrat running, the whole thing would become incredibly unpredictable.
I mean, it's a long shot. But it's still something that we can speculate about, because there is a chance that Specter is at least considering this right now. Stay tuned.
Specter will face former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in the Republican primary, a "conservative firebrand" that came within 7,000 votes of taking down Specter in the 2004 GOP primary and one that will likely prove an even bigger threat to Specter this time around. But last time, Specter had the support of President Bush, then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), and most of the Republican establishment. This time, the RNC is threatening to hold funds from him and the state Republicans' dissatisfaction with him has grown exponentially in recent years. This time, it looks like he is alone.
Specter has always drawn much of his support from independents, moderate Republicans and many of the state's Democrats--three groups that have fueled his re-election victories for decades. But many (hundreds of thousands) of the state's Independents and moderate Republicans have registered with the Democratic Party since the 2008 election, which hurts Specter in the closed Republican primary, in which only registered Republicans can vote. So the Republican electorate is much more conservative than it was in 2004. His buddies in the middle can't help him out in the primary.
So then, the prospect of Specter switching parties comes up. Pennsylvania law prohibits him from pulling a Lieberman--which is having the option of falling back and running as an independent should he lose in the primary.
But one option that he does have, according to this article, is to switch his party affiliation before the election and run either as an Independent or Democrat. He would probably have a better shot of beating Toomey--who is viewed as too right-wing for a bluish purple state like Pennsylvania--if he ran as an Independent or Democrat (if he did that he would still have to win the Democratic nomination which is no easy feat).
But in a three-way race with Toomey as the GOP candidate, Specter as an Independent, and a Democrat running, the whole thing would become incredibly unpredictable.
I mean, it's a long shot. But it's still something that we can speculate about, because there is a chance that Specter is at least considering this right now. Stay tuned.
Friday, March 6, 2009
CA: Poll Shows That Boxer is Safe
A new Field Poll out of California shows that Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is safe for her 2010 reelection bid, no matter who were Republican challenger is.
The poll tested her against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R), as well as a hypothetical Republican primary including Schwarzenegger, Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and one primary match-up with just Fiorina and DeVore. Here are the numbers:
Boxer--54%
Schwarzenegger--30%
Boxer--55%
Fiorina--25%
Schwarzenegger--31%
Fiorina--24%
DeVore--9%
Fiorina--31%
DeVore--19%
Schwarzenegger has not shown any interest in the race and is considered unlikely to run, and Fiorina is undergoing treatment for breast cancer--making her entry in the race very unlikely.
But even if by some miracle one of those two Republicans jumps in the race, this poll confirms that Boxer would cruise to reelection anyway. DeVore--who has already officially announced his candidacy--won't be a threat at all to Boxer if he gets the nomination.
So barring any major gaffes or scandals in the next year and a half, it looks like Boxer will easily win a fourth term in the Senate.
The poll tested her against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R), as well as a hypothetical Republican primary including Schwarzenegger, Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and one primary match-up with just Fiorina and DeVore. Here are the numbers:
Boxer--54%
Schwarzenegger--30%
Boxer--55%
Fiorina--25%
Schwarzenegger--31%
Fiorina--24%
DeVore--9%
Fiorina--31%
DeVore--19%
Schwarzenegger has not shown any interest in the race and is considered unlikely to run, and Fiorina is undergoing treatment for breast cancer--making her entry in the race very unlikely.
But even if by some miracle one of those two Republicans jumps in the race, this poll confirms that Boxer would cruise to reelection anyway. DeVore--who has already officially announced his candidacy--won't be a threat at all to Boxer if he gets the nomination.
So barring any major gaffes or scandals in the next year and a half, it looks like Boxer will easily win a fourth term in the Senate.
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