MI, FL Delegates Each Get Half a Vote

The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee met in Washington on Saturday to discuss possible solutions to the delicate issues of seating Michigan and Florida's delegates.

And guess what? They listened to me! They did exactly what I suggested they should do in yesterday's article, which was to seat all of the delegates from Florida and Michigan and give each of them have of a vote at the convention. As a result, the magic number of delegates for clinching the nomination has now changed from 2,026 to 2,118.

The only difference was in their decision about Michigan, in which they gave Hillary Clinton 69 delegates to Barack Obama's 59--taking into account the thousands of write-in ballots that were most likely for Obama--when in fact the vote total showed that Clinton should have received 73 delegates to Obama's 55--giving Obama the uncommitted delegates according to the January 15 vote. So basically they stole four delegates away from Clinton and gave them to Obama.

Now, this is not that big of a deal with only four delegates changing hands (8 net delegates) because Obama is currently up by over 175 pledged delegates. But after the compromised was reached, Clinton campaign adviser Harold Ickes issued this statement:

"We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the Credentials Committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan’s delegates that actually reflect the votes as they were cast." The Credentials Committee will meet at the end of July.

Now, should we take this threat seriously or is the Clinton campaign just holding on until the clock runs out? I think the latter is more likely.

And even if Obama has not reached 2,118 delegates after the Puerto Rico primary on Sunday and the Montana and South Dakota primaries on Tuesday, aides to both Obama and Clinton said they expected enough superdelegates to endorse Obama in the 48 hours after the final primaries to allow him to proclaim himself the nominee.

In addition, Clinton's associates said she is coming to terms with the fact that she will most likely not win the nomination.

Now, the question is when, how--or if--Clinton will drop out. Will she wait until he has reached 2,118, or will she protest the committee's decision until July? Or will she take it all the way to the convention?

Absolutely not. The real reason that Clinton has stayed in for this long is because she wants to be seen as someone who doesn't give up or quit--a fighter. She wants to have people see her this way because she still badly wants to be president.

Now, I don't know how she wants to go about doing this--whether as Obama's VP or quietly hoping that he loses this year so she can run in 2012. But if she takes this to the convention and the Democrats lose in November, Democrats will blame her for the loss and her presidential hopes will be shattered. And she is fully aware of this.

I fully expect Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race and endorse Barack Obama within the 24 hours after he reaches 2,118 delegates. But we'll wait and see what happens.

My Solution For Michigan & Florida

Today, I will put forth my proposal for a fairly simple solution to the dilemma about how to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida. But first, here's some background information.

Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates by the DNC because they moved up their primaries before February 5, against party rules.

The Republicans had the same problem, but they stripped these states of half of their delegates as punishment, but both states had significant impact in the process. Mitt Romney's victory in Michigan temporarily revived his bruised campaign, and John McCain's win in Florida is seen by the pundits (and myself) as his coronation as the Republican nominee.

On the Democratic side in Michigan, Barack Obama took his name off of the ballot--along with John Edwards and a few other candidates--to please Iowa Democrats (they wanted to be the sole voice from the Midwest). The candidates had agreed not to campaign there, but they could keep their names on the ballots if they wished.

Hillary Clinton kept her name on the ballot, and could have been one of the reasons that she lost Iowa. She received 55% of the vote, uncommitted (mostly Obama and Edwards) received 40% of the vote, and Dennis Kucinich received 5%.

In Florida, all three candidates's names were on the ballot. Clinton received 50%, Obama got 33%, and Edwards got 14%.

Tomorrow, the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee is meeting to discuss the options they have for seating these previously punished delegates from Michigan and Florida.

This committee is in a very difficult position, because they need to maintain its primary process, but they do not want to anger the 2.3 million Democratic voters in Michigan and Florida and do not want to prolong the battle for the nomination.

And did I mention that Michigan and Florida are swing state electoral goldmines that are vital to winning the general election?

So, here's my solution. Let's start with Florida.

Florida is pretty simple. Since every major candidate was on the ballot in Florida and no one campaigned there, the DNC should seat the Florida delegates that were elected on January 29, giving each delegate one half of a vote at the convention.

Clinton's people will be happy because they got what they wanted, and Obama's people will have to put up with it because they don't want to start another argument that would prolong the start of the general election campaign. She would net 19 delegates.

Michigan is much trickier. Clinton's people want to seat the delegates as is, which means that since no one voted for Obama officially, he should receive no delegates. The DNC will not go for this, and will look for a compromise, that could be very complicated.

But I have a simple solution. Since Edwards endorsed Obama, and the bulk of Edwards' pledged delegates have already shifted towards Obama, I would give Obama all of the uncommitted votes. Then I would give each pledged delegate half of a vote at the convention, and she would net 9 delegates.

Then, the DNC should strip the state party leaders who were responsible for moving up the primaries of their superdelegate status.

This way, Obama will be relieved that it's all over and done with, Clinton won't have much of a leg to stand on because the delegates will be seated based on the voting results, and it won't affect the overall outcome of the primaries (Obama's lead would just go down from about 200 to 172). Clinton might appeal, but I doubt it.

The Democrats need these two states in the fall, so they must try to favor Clinton with their decisions, so those 2.3 million voters feel like their voices have been heard.

The DNC should not punish these voters for what their party leaders did, and they cannot risk losing Michigan and Florida's combined 44 electoral votes in the general election because of their pride and stubbornness.

I will be watching very closely tomorrow to see what the Rules and Bylaws Committee comes up with.

Obama Closes In On Nomination

On Tuesday, Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama in Kentucky in a similar fashion of her massive victory in West Virginia the week before, while Obama beat her handily in Oregon.

In Kentucky, Clinton won 65% of the vote to Obama's 30%. In addition, exit polls showed that only about a third of Kentucky Democrats who voted for Clinton said they would vote for Obama in the general election. This revisits the concerns after West Virginia that he has a major problem with uniting the party and with working class whites.

In Oregon, Obama won 59% of the vote to Clinton's 41%. Something very interesting happened in Oregon, however. Obama beat Clinton solidly among working class whites. He won among those making less that $50,000 a year and those without college degrees.

So it seems that Obama doesn't necessarily have a problem with working class white voters, just working class white voters who live in Appalachia. We'll see how he deals with that in the general election.

After the Kentucky results were finalized, Obama claimed that he now has the majority of pledged delegates. He announced this in Des Moines, Iowa, which symbolizes him coming full circle in this nominating process. After all, it all started with his big win in the Iowa caucuses in January.

Obama was very, very careful not to declare himself the nominee, because that would piss off Clinton supporters (and there are a lot of them who aren't too keen about him already). But he sent the superdelegates a clear message with his triumphant return to Iowa--that it is time to move beyond the primaries and focus on the general election and John McCain.

At this writing, Obama leads Clinton by about 185 delegates, and is only about 65 delegates away from winning the 2026 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

Clinton now has a very weak argument to the superdelegates, including math that is frankly absurd. Now it's not a matter of whether or not she will drop out, but a matter of when.

Her argument about Michigan and Florida is basically all that she's got now. Howard Dean and other party officials are meeting on May 31 to discuss how or if they want to seat Michigan and Florida's delegates. I will have more on that in the week to come.

Obama Slams Bush's "Appeasement" Comments

In an intense day of innuendos, criticism, and accusations, likely Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama accused President Bush and Sen. John McCain of "fear-mongering" in Watertown, South Dakota on Friday.

He made these accusations the day after Bush criticized Democrats in front of the Israeli Parliament for wanting to openly negotiate with terrorists, calling it "appeasement," reminiscent of the Nazi era.

"Some seem to believe we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along," said Bush. This was clearly a swipe at Obama, who has said that he will talk to leaders of countries who are not exactly best buds with the US, like Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The White House denied that the president was referring to Obama.

For better or for worse, McCain quickly backed up Bush's comments with criticisms of his own, but his were more direct. "Sen. Obama would meet unconditionally with some of the world's worst dictators and state sponsors of terrorists."

Obama responded by saying, "Now that's exactly the kind of appalling attack that's divided our country and that alienates us from the world."

Democratic Sens. Jim Webb of Virginia, Joe Biden of Delaware, and Chris Dodd of Connecticut quickly defended Obama on the Sunday morning talk shows like they would a nominee.

Obama reiterated his stance that he would meet, without preconditions, with leaders of countries "hostile" to the US. He then cited that the Bush administration negotiated with Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi--"a known terrorist" as Sen. Joe Biden put it--to end their nuclear program.

Obama then accused Bush and McCain for strengthening America's enemies in the Middle East with their aggressive foreign policy. “If George Bush and John McCain want to have a debate about protecting the United States of America,” Obama said, “that is a debate I am happy to have any time, any place.”

I've noticed that Obama has consistently referred to Bush and McCain as if they were an inseparable duo, obviously trying to make voters associate the two names together. McCain stood by Bush's side this time, but has tried to distance himself from him on issues like Katrina and global warming. He's going to be walking on a tightrope--balancing his support and condemnation of Bush's policies. And Obama will be right there waiting for him to fall.

Welcome to the 2008 general election.

2008 Republican VP Candidates

Here is my list of the top nine vice presidential candidates for the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, in the order of most to least strategic and practical.

1.) Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts (Age: 61)—
-Romney has the support of many conservatives in the party.
-He has extensive business experience in a time of an economic recession.
-Romney is a Mormon, and picking him could drive up the turnout of Mormon voters in key swing states like Nevada and Colorado.
-He could put his home state of Michigan (17 electoral votes) into play for Republicans, where his father was a popular governor.
-He is well-known nationally and excellent at fundraising--something McCain desperately needs to rival the cash machine that is Barack Obama. The McCain campaign believes that he could raise as much as $60 million in two months.
-He is a solid debater, as demonstrated in his performances against John McCain in the primaries, and he has been vetted and tested by the media.
-He would be an excellent attack dog against Obama.
-But, has flip-flopped on many, many issues and is seen as “fake” by many voters.
-His Mormon faith would not sit well with evangelical voters.
-Would have little appeal to working class whites that do not like Obama.
-Romney and McCain have not gotten along well since the competitive New Hampshire primary, and are still not on the best personal terms.

2.) Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida (Age: 51)—
-Crist endorsed McCain before the Florida primary and campaigned with him frequently.
-Crist won Florida handily in 2006 in an otherwise dreadful election year for the GOP.
-He is likely to have a future in the national GOP.
-Is strong on crime, and and is cutting the state's budget, which is making Florida taxpayers very happy.
-He is pro-life, pro-NRA, pro-death penalty, but is also "green."
-Would help to secure Florida’s 27 electoral votes, and is a purple state that is essential to Republican victory in November.
-He was born in Pennsylvania, so he might help to deliver votes in that pivotal swing state.
-But, he's fairly new as governor--he was inaugurated in 2007.
-Crist divorced his wife 28 years ago, and has since not gotten re-married, so that might not sit well with family values voters.
-If McCain can't win Florida without Crist, then he's in serious trouble anyway.

3.) Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota (Age: 47)—
-Pawlenty is a young, upstart politician from a region of traditionally blue states.
-Could put Minnesota into play for the Republicans, which has 10 electoral votes and has solidly voted Democratic since '72.
-The national co-chairman of McCain’s campaign, and was one of his earliest backers.
-Is generally liked by the fiscal and social conservative wings of the party.
-His youth could offset McCain’s maturity.
-Has an immigration plan that is more strict (conservative) than McCain’s, which could bring balance to the ticket.
-But, he is not well-known beyond his home state, and might not bring out traditional conservatives the way other candidates can.
-Might be seen as a "safe" choice, when the GOP needs excitement to rival Barack Obama.
-Recent polls show that Obama is way out in front in Minnesota, and Pawlenty might not be able to deliver the state, which would cancel out the top reason for choosing him.

4.) Rep. Bob Portman of Ohio (Age: 52)—
-Portman was a six term representative from Ohio—a crucial swing state in November.
-From 2006-2007, he was the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, which could be reassuring to voters on their number one issue: the economy—and an issue that McCain is not particularly strong on (he said so himself).
-He provides legislative (Congressman), executive (George W. Bush's Cabinet), diplomatic (U.S. trade representative) and economic (Office of Management and Budget director) backgrounds.
-He is 52, so that would contrast McCain’s age.
-Received an 89% lifetime American Conservative Union rating, which would reassure the Base.
-According to columnist Robert Novak, Portman is President Bush's choice for McCain's VP.
-But, he won’t have that much sway in Ohio because he was only a representative.
-He is not well-known nationally.
-Because he is friends with and worked under Bush, he and McCain would be tied to him even more, which is the last thing the Republicans want.

5.) Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska (Age: 44)
-Palin is a rising star in the party and is the most popular governor in America, with an approval rating around 90%.
-The fact that she's a woman--an attractive one at that--would help McCain pick up some support white women who supported Hillary Clinton who are not quite ready to jump on board with Barack Obama. I cannot stress how important that could be come November.
-She is a strong fiscal conservative and a ferocious fighter of corruption--even within her own party--which would match well with McCain's track record.
-She brings youth to the ticket, and is a reformer.
-She's popular with the conservative wing of the party--she is a lifetime member of the National Rifle Association and she is staunchly pro-life.
-Not connected to the current (unpopular) administration, and would be seen as a Washington outsider.
-But, she provides no regional electoral support.
-Does not have much experience--she was elected governor in 2006 and was a city councilwoman for two terms before that.
-She is not known to the general electorate and might outshine McCain.

6.) Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas (Age: 52)—
-Huckabee is very popular with social conservatives and the religious right.
-Has is exciting, vibrant and humorous which would balance out well with McCain.
-Would almost guarantee Republican victory in the south by appealing to evangelical voters.
-Many conservatives would feel more comfortable voting for a ticket which would put "a man of faith" in the White House.
-He received about 10% of the vote in most Republican primaries, even after he dropped out in March.
-He is also well-known on a national level because of his unexpected success in the Republican primaries.
-He embodies change, which is something that the vast majority of voters want this election.
-But, his economic policies are radical and were shot down hard by the Wall Street Journal.
-His nomination would irritate and alienate economic and foreign policy conservatives.
-He has said many controversial things as pastor and governor, and does not believe in evolution.
-Huck has already made many enemies in his short time on the national stage, and usually the first rule of picking a VP is to risk as little harm as possible.
-Provides no regional electoral support.

7.) Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina (Age: 52)—
-Graham is considered to be fairly conservative, but sometimes does not necessarily play to party lines.
-Was an early supporter of McCain in 2000 and 2008 and is a good friend of McCain’s.
-His selection would help solidify the conservative base, especially in the south.
-Would help with the religious right.
-But, he is a supporter of McCain-Kennedy comprehensive immigration reform, which does not help with hard-line conservatives.
-He is not the most popular guy among conservative elites, and may be too similar to McCain on a number of issues.
-He provides no regional electoral support.

8.) Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina (Age: 47)—
-Sanford has built a reputation as a fighter on pork barrel spending.
-He is young, which could offset McCain’s age problem.
-He is a southern governor, who has the potential to deliver southern votes.
-He is a fiscal conservative, has an independent streak, and is almost libertarian at times.
-But, he is not known to the general electorate.
-Having two “mavericks” on the same ticket might not be the best thing for the Republicans.
-He provides no regional electoral support.

9.) Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Age: 66)—
-Lieberman was a Democrat until 2006, when he became an independent.
-He was on the 2000 Democratic ticket with Al Gore.
-Might have appeal with other independents, but it is not very likely.
-Is a good friend of McCain’s, and might speak at the 2008 Republican National Convention.
-Is a strong supporter of the war in Iraq.
-But, he and Lieberman are too similar in their crossover appeal.
-Would not help win over the conservative base in the Republican Party—a base that McCain desperately needs if he wants to stand a chance against Obama.
-His age does not contrast enough with McCain's.
-Provides no regional electoral support.

2008 Democratic VP Candidates

Here is my list of the top five vice presidential candidates for the presumptive Democratic nominee, Barack Obama, in the order from the most to least strategic and practical.

1.) Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware (Age: 65)—
-Biden is a former presidential candidate and is the fourth-longest serving Democratic Senator.
-He provides 26 years of experience, so whenever Obama is attacked by McCain about his lack of experience, he can point to Biden.
-He is the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and would provide tons of foreign policy knowledge to the ticket--something Obama desperately needs.
-His age balances out well with Obama's.
-Biden is Catholic and hails from a blue-collar world, two constituencies with which Obama needs help.
-He is also not afraid to say what is on his mind, which is exactly what the Democrats need in an election year, and would have no problem going after McCain.
-He has not endorsed Obama or Clinton at the time of this writing, so he could be seen as a neutral pick in an effort to unify the party.
-But, he also gained no traction at all as a presidential candidate, which might prove true again if he is selected as Obama's running-mate.
-He doesn't put any states in play and tends to say the wrong thing.

2.) Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico (Age: 60)—
-Richardson is the current governor of a pivotal swing state, and was re-elected in 2004 with 68% of the vote.
-He has sway among the millions of Latinos in the U.S.--a group Obama currently struggles with and needs in the general election.
-He could help carry New Mexico, Colorado, and even put Texas in play for the Democrats (or at least force McCain to spend money there).
-He served as the Ambassador to the United Nations which would reassure voters who are concerned about Obama's lack of foreign policy experience.
-He has been recognized for negotiating the release of hostages, American servicemen, and political prisoners in North Korea, Iraq, and Cuba.
-He was also the U.S. Secretary of Energy under President Bill Clinton, which would reassure the millions of voters that are concerned about high gas prices.
-He is pro-2nd amendment, which would help with moderates.
-Richardson has been nominated five times for the Nobel Peace Prize.
-But, a Black-Latino ticket might be be risky, with members of two minorities that have never served in either office on the same ticket.
-Obama could probably win New Mexico and the bulk of the Latino vote without him.
-And, Richardson is a weak public speaker and gained no traction as a presidential candidate.

3.) Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas (Age: 63)
-Clark was the former NATO commander, and an experienced armed forces general.
-He would bring loads of bona-fide national security credentials to the ticket, and would rival, if not beat, McCain on issues of foreign policy.
-He was a big-time Clinton supporter during the primaries, but has praised Obama on multiple occasions since he won the nomination.
-Picking a former Clinton supporter might help to unite the party.
-He is from Arkansas and has appeal in that region of the country, so he might help to flip a state like Missouri over the Dems.
-But, he too gained no traction as a presidential candidate in 2004, and is a mediocre campaigner.

4.) Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia (Age: 50)—
-Kaine is a popular and successful governor of a key southern swing state with 13 electoral votes, that could trend Democratic if he was included on the ticket.
-He was formerly the mayor of the city of Richmond.
-He endorsed Obama very early, and has been a staunch supporter ever since.
-He is a fiscal and social centrist.
-His strong Catholic faith would have wide appeal in the Rust Belt.
-Would be seen as a Washington outsider, so he would fit with Obama's theme of change.
-But, he is only four years older than Obama and has no foreign policy experience, which is needed to balance out the ticket.
-He is not well-known nationally.

5.) Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York (Age: 60)—
-Clinton has the support of thousands of Democrats that Obama could not normally win in the general election.
-Many Democrats are thrilled with the idea of a “Dream Ticket” with their two leading candidates on it.
-If he chooses her, the party will instantly be united, and most of her 17 million supporters will jump on board.
-She could bring in working class voters, and has a strong appeal in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
-She is also popular among older voters, which could help in states like Florida.
-She would attract millions of women voters who might not have voted for him otherwise.
-Has the most recognizable name in American politics (for better or for worse).
-She is an incredible attack dog, and would have no problem going after McCain.
-But, she is a very partisan and polarizing figure in American politics, and her and Obama are not exactly best buddies after spending 17 months as bitter adversaries.
-She represents the "old Washington" that Obama has so strongly run against.
-Her and Bill would insist on becoming "co-presidents" which might create a hostile environment in the West Wing, should they win the election.
-She is the kind of person who loves the spotlight, and so does Obama. They would compete for attention, and it might be counterproductive to the campaign.
-She would galvanize the conservative base, and McCain will have a much easier time fundraising.
-She won't bring in any Republican voters, which Obama has claimed time-and-again that he can do.

Edwards Endorses Obama

Around 6:40 P.M. on Wednesday, former presidential candidate John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Edwards' endorsement has been coveted by both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton since he dropped out of the race on January 30th. His endorsement was the most sought after, second only to former vice president Al Gore.

This endorsement is another step in the gradual ending process of the Democratic primaries. The party will now begin to coalesce more around their likely nominee, Barack Obama.

This timing is also significant because Edwards holds a large amount of sway with working class white voters--a group that Obama does not fare well with, as demonstrated by his big loss in West Virginia yesterday.

This endorsement will not change the minds of voters in the primaries to come, but it will begin the healing process of the party. It is more of a symbolic endorsement than one that is meant to gain immediate votes. Clearly, Edwards believes (as everyone but the Clinton campaign does) that Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic party.

It is very likely that many more uncommitted superdelegates will come out and endorse Obama, now seeing that the big shots are ready to take their chances on Obama.

Also coming with Edwards' endorsement is his nineteen pledged delegates that he won in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and West Virginia. Although they are not obligated to support Obama, it is more than likely that they will. Their support will put Obama at nearly 100 delegates away from securing the nomination.

As I was watching him endorse Obama, I was wondering whether Edwards might make a good running-mate for Obama in November.

On the plus side, he has a great rapport with working class voters--a group Obama struggles with, and a group that is needed to win states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. He is also from the south, and specifically North Carolina, which is a state that Obama could put in play with a coalition of blacks and working class whites if Edwards was on the ticket.

But on the down side, he is not experienced or old enough to balance the ticket, and does not have the foreign policy knowledge needed to back Obama up. Also, in 2004, Edwards did not carry any southern state for nominee John Kerry, and might not be able to again this election cycle. And I'm not quite sure that Edwards is interested in being on the ticket again.

I'm sure he's on the short list, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. But that decision is a long way away. In the meantime, Edwards' endorsement will help to bring the party together around Obama, and it will convince more uncommitted superdelegates that it is okay to come out of their ditches and declare their support for him.

And keep your eye on Al Gore. His endorsement, along with those of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, will signify the absolute end of the primary process. But don't expect them to endorse until after June 3.

Clinton Thumps Obama in WV

On Tuesday, Hillary Clinton blew Barack Obama out of the water in the West Virginia primary. She won by an impressive margin of 67% to 26%. John Edwards, who was on the ballot, received 7% of the vote.

While this is an incredibly impressive win, she only netted about ten pledged delegates, and was expected to win by this kind of margin. Last nights results do not really change Clinton's bleak outlook in the race for the Democratic nomination.

The only thing this changes is the fact that she continues to carry white working-class voters overwhelmingly in must-win states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. Those were the voters that gave her such an incredible win last night.

She claims that she is the only one who can win these votes in November, and she is urging superdelegates to take that into consideration before they make an endorsement. I don't think that they'll care.

Now we look forward to the Oregon and Kentucky primaries that take place next Tuesday.

Kentucky is basically the same state as West Virginia, but with a larger black population, so expect a slightly smaller margin of victory for Clinton.

Oregon is likely to go for Obama by at least ten points (my guess would be more) according to recent polls. However, voting is done solely by mail over a one-month period, so that makes things a little harder to predict.

All in all, these two contests are likely to cancel each other out in terms of delegate gains, and each delegate for Obama brings him closer and closer to the nomination, and greatly minimizes Clinton's chances of winning it outright.

Democrat Picks Up Miss. House Seat

In Mississippi's 1st district, Democrat Travis Childers (see left) picked up a House seat in a special election Tuesday.

MS-01 is a highly conservative district, and it was the third big win for the Democrats in highly conservative districts in the last three months in special House elections.

The seat opened up because the representative of that district, Republican Roger Wicker, was called upon by Mississippi's governor to fill Sen. Trent Lott's position in the Senate.

Childers, a court official in Prentiss county, defeated Republican Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven (a suburb of Memphis), by a margin of 54% to 46%. Childers put together a coalition of blacks, who were angered by the racial tone of the primary, and conservative "yellow dog" Democrats, who have not voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter.

This is a crushing blow to the NRCC, who poured over $1 million into this race, and a combined $3 million in their past three unsuccessful special election races. If the Republicans keep losing these races in their so-called "strongholds", what will happen to the dozen or so open seats in districts with ratings of R+5 or less?

This loss also means that tying these Democrats to Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi doesn't really work, which is a bad sign for the Fall. It didn't work with Don Cazayoux of LA-06, and it didn't work with Childers in MS-01. Even the classic Republican strategy of calling people liberal doesn't work anymore. I guess after Bush, liberal isn't such a dirty word anymore.

The NRCC and the Republican party has to gravitate away from Bush and towards the center if they want to have a fighting chance in November, or we could have a massacre on our hands.

Republican Seat in Jeopardy in Miss.

There is a contest Tuesday that is far more important than the (meaningless) West Virginia primary today. It is the second round of voting in Mississippi's first congressional district.

On April 22nd, Travis Childers (D) defeated Greg Davis (R) in the first round of voting in this highly conservative district. In that round, Childers received 49.6% of the vote, while Davis received 46.3% of the vote. But neither candidate got the required 50% so there is a runoff tonight with no minor candidates.

So why is this important? Well, as I mentioned in a previous entry, the Republicans have been losing almost every special election thus far, including several in traditionally conservative strongholds. Another loss in a conservative deep south stronghold could prove to be a huge psychological loss for the party, who is already expected to lose many seats in Congress.

This deeply worries the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), so they have poured millions of dollars into the state. Even so, their spending has been dwarfed by their Democratic counterpart who has been whooping them in fundraising.

This race is so important that the NRCC has had President George W. Bush and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain send out an automated message to voters of that district. Vice President Dick Cheney and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour stumped for Davis in recent weeks.

The GOP has once again tried to associate their opponent with Barack Obama, and some think that they are invoking the issue of race, which generally plays in the south. In a way, this is a litmus test to see what will work in November, both in the congressional and presidential elections.

Republicans are desperate for a win after being dominated by the Democrats so far in the special elections. If the Democrats pick up yet another conservative seat, it is a very bad sign for the Republicans.

Bob Barr Enters Race as Libertarian

Former Rep. Bob Barr of Georgia launched a presidential bid on Monday. Barr is a former Republican turned Libertarian. He argues that the Republican party does not do enough to cut back the federal government.

As I mentioned in an earlier entry--where I predicted he would run--his bid would at the least cancel out Ralph Nader's support on opposite sides of the political spectrum. It may even prove to be more damaging to John McCain than Nader would be to the Democratic nominee.

Ron Paul, who was formerly a Libertarian, has been attracting around 5-10% of the vote in the recent Republican primaries, even though McCain secured the nomination in February. Those 5-10% won't necessarily jump on McCain's bandwagon, and might vote for Barr to show their disapproval of McCain.

Although it's unlikely Barr's bid will be a game-changer in November, I'm going to keep my eye on his impact. I genuinely believe that he could be the next Nader or Perot, because if the polls are any indication, it's going to be a close one in November.

Obama Passes Clinton in Superdelegates

Yesterday, according to a number of news organizations, Barack Obama officially passed Hillary Clinton in the superdelegate count.

In January, Clinton led Obama by over 100 superdelegates. But over the last four months, Obama has slowly eroded Clinton's lead, especially after Super Tuesday.

Many supers who originally had endorsed Clinton have switched to Obama, such as George McGovern, and he has snatched up most of the uncommitted superdelegates since March.

A flood of superdelegates came out to endorse Obama this week after his impressive performance in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 9th. He has been courting them heavily on Capitol Hill since then, while Clinton campaigns in West Virignia.

This is a big turning point in the race, because now Obama leads Clinton in every category--pledged delegates, the popular vote, number of states won--and that now includes support from the party elders.

Since neither candidate will reach the 2,025 delegates needed to capture the nomination from pledged delegates alone, superdelegates will decide who gets the nomination.

Expect Obama's superdelegate lead to grow to a sizable margin before voting ends on June 3rd. And keep your eye on Democratic heavyweights such as Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and John Edwards. When they start to shift to one candidate, it's over.

Weak Showing in NC & IN for Clinton

As I said in my previous entry, Hillary Clinton needed to win either Indiana or North Carolina by a large margin last night in order to remain competitive in this nominating contest.

Well, let's just say Clinton's had better nights. She lost to Barack Obama in North Carolina by 14 percentage points (56-42). Obama carried about 90% of black voters and did very well with 1st time voters. He netted a total of 16 delegates in his first real victory since February.

But we all knew that he would win North Carolina, right? What about the highly anticipated Indiana primary? Could Clinton make up any ground there?

Well, no. She carried Indiana by two percentage points (51-49), which is hardly a victory at all at this stage in the race. Some are saying that the only reason she won is that--upon Rush Limbaugh's recommendation--Republicans voted for her because they think that she is the weaker general election candidate.

For the record, I think it is worth noting that she did very well in a state that borders Obama's home state of Illinois.

But as I mentioned earlier, she needed more than a narrow victory last night. She needed a substantive victory, because all that really matters at this point is delegates, money, and the popular vote margin.

Last night, she needed to close the delegate gap between herself and Obama to help make her case to the already-skeptical superdelegates. She also needed a psychological win so her supporters could get excited and flood her campaign with money, like they did after Pennsylvania. Also, she needed to maintain her argument that she's winning the popular vote (including the votes from the excluded contests of Michigan and Florida) legitimate for the sake of wooing uncommitted superdelegates.

Well, her poor performance last night caused her to fail in all three of those categories. The delegate gap widened by about 15 last night, she practically begged her supporters to give her money, and her "new math" for the popular vote is now irrelevant as a result of Obama's decisive victory in North Carolina.

And today, there was more bad news for Clinton. Former Democratic nominee George McGovern--whose endorsed Clinton before the Iowa caucuses--came out today to endorse Obama, and urged Clinton to drop out.

McGovern said that he has been a friend of the Clintons since 1972, but it seemed almost impossible for her to win the nomination at this point. He also said that he didn't want the same kind of Democratic in-fighting that occurred in 1972--which he said strengthened Richard Nixon's candidacy--to happen again this year.

Three other superdelegates announced their support for Obama, and you can expect a lot more to come over to his side in the next month.

The pundits have already declared that this race is over, but Clinton is determined to stay in it "until we have a nominee." I think that after last night, she will need a miracle and then some to capture the nomination.

North Carolina and Indiana Scenarios

As Democrats in North Carolina and Indiana go to the polls to vote in the last big primary day of the year (thank God), I thought I'd lay out a few scenarios for tonight's results.

If Hillary Clinton pulls off a win in both states, by however small a margin, the media will have a field day talking about come-from-behind victories and the impact of Rev. Wright.

Also, many Democratic voters--and more importantly, uncommitted superdelegates--are going to seriously re-evaluate Barack Obama.

The popular vote margin will be even closer, and Clinton will use the media spotlight to push for those Michigan and Florida re-does that she wants so bad.

If Obama wins both, then there will be a lot of pressure for Clinton to drop out of the race for the good of the Democratic party. But if you know Hillary Clinton half as well as I do, you know that she won't drop out. Not until after June 3.

Over the next two weeks, West Virginia and Kentucky will be voting--two states where she has been crushing Obama in the polls. That's probably because they have gobs of working-class whites. And what could a few more months hurt anyway, right?

And now, for the most likely scenario: an even split. That means this process will definitely carry on to June 3, and probably beyond. But with each primary and caucus, Clinton's math becomes even more daunting.

Even if Clinton wins big tonight, Obama will have maintain a lead of at least 130 pledged delegates, with only 217 pledged delegates yet to be elected. Clinton would need over 80% of the remaining pledged delegates to take a lead there.

And her lead among superdelegates has shrunk to 15 according to Real Clear Politics. In the longrun, she needs to overtake him in the popular vote and get an overwhelming support of superdelegates in the last months before the convention if she wants to have a shot.

Tonight, the pressure's on Clinton. Obama can take a hit--he's got the math on his side. She needs to capitalize on his mistakes and controversies that have occurred this past months and get a big psychological win.

She needs to come out with a big win in at least one of these states. If she fails, the clock will have just struck 11:59.

Dems Dominating Special Elections

With all this talk of divisiveness and "grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory" within the Democratic party, they have at least one thing going their way.

In almost each special congressional election--where the current representative either stepped down or retired--the Democratic candidates have consistently won in heavily Republican districts.

For instance, when former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) stepped down in Illinois' 14th district (IL-14)--which has a PVI (Partisan Voting Index) rating of R+5--the Republicans thought that they would get it back easily.

But Democratic candidate Bill Foster--with the endorsement and active support of Barack Obama--upset Jim Oberweis (R) by a margin of 6 percentage points in March. Both party's national committees poured millions into this race, but Foster took Hastert's place in the House.

Also, on April 22nd, Travis Childers (D) defeated Greg Davis (R) in MS-01, a district with a PVI of R+10. Childers received just under 50% while Davis received 46%. Because neither candidate reached 50%, there will be a runoff election on May 13th, but it looks like the Democrats have it wrapped up.

And yesterday, in LA-06, Don Cazayoux (D) got 49% of the vote to Woody Jenkins' (R) 46%. This district has a PVI of R+7, where President Bush received 59% of the vote here in 2004. And up until yesterday, this district had been held by Republicans for 33 years.

The Republicans referred to him as Don Cazayoux as Don "Tax You" and called him a liberal--which is an insult and voting deterrent in the south.

They tried to tie him to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi, and tried everything in their playbook--one that will be similar to the one the Republicans will be using on Obama or Clinton in November--but to no avail.

Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) advertised heavily here, but the end result was the same: a Democrat won in a heavily Republican district.

See a pattern?

Although the presidential race is most likely going to be very close, the Democrats are expected to make major gains in the Congressional election. There are many seats that the Republicans are in danger of losing, but only a few where the Democratic incumbent is in danger.

On top of that, the DCCC has outraised the NRCC $88 million to $65 million so far in 2008. They have raised and spent more money that the Republicans so far, and it will be the same in November.

This shows a general trend of more enthusiasm, energy, and fundraising cash on the Democratic side, which will make a major impact on the congressional and presidential races this fall.

Obama Wins Guam By 7 Votes

Yesterday, Barack Obama won the Guam caucuses (yes, Guam is part of America) in the closest race so far this election season.

In a record-breaking turnout of over 4,500 Guamanians, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton by seven votes, 2264 to 2257. In percentages, that is 51.1% to 49.9%. Each candidate will receive four pledged delegates that each get half of a vote at the convention.

Neither candidate visited or campaigned in scenic Guam, but Obama opened a campaign office in the nation's capital.

But all in all, this was really a huge--I mean huge--victory for the Obama campaign. He can now brag, "I did it! I did the impossible! I won Guam!"

In other news, the Wright controversy seems to be dying down again just in time for the North Carolina and Indiana primaries that take place on Tuesday.

Clinton has been making huge gains in both states in the polls. According to polling two days before the primaries, Obama is expected to win North Carolina by about 5-10%--down from 15 two weeks ago. And Clinton is expected to win Indiana by around 5%, which is a major improvement from the statistical tie two weeks ago.

I think that the Wright controversy and a bad stretch for Obama has really taken its toll on the campaign, but we'll see how much voters really cared about it.