Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Friday, May 30, 2008

My Solution For Michigan & Florida

Today, I will put forth my proposal for a fairly simple solution to the dilemma about how to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida. But first, here's some background information.

Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates by the DNC because they moved up their primaries before February 5, against party rules.

The Republicans had the same problem, but they stripped these states of half of their delegates as punishment, but both states had significant impact in the process. Mitt Romney's victory in Michigan temporarily revived his bruised campaign, and John McCain's win in Florida is seen by the pundits (and myself) as his coronation as the Republican nominee.

On the Democratic side in Michigan, Barack Obama took his name off of the ballot--along with John Edwards and a few other candidates--to please Iowa Democrats (they wanted to be the sole voice from the Midwest). The candidates had agreed not to campaign there, but they could keep their names on the ballots if they wished.

Hillary Clinton kept her name on the ballot, and could have been one of the reasons that she lost Iowa. She received 55% of the vote, uncommitted (mostly Obama and Edwards) received 40% of the vote, and Dennis Kucinich received 5%.

In Florida, all three candidates's names were on the ballot. Clinton received 50%, Obama got 33%, and Edwards got 14%.

Tomorrow, the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee is meeting to discuss the options they have for seating these previously punished delegates from Michigan and Florida.

This committee is in a very difficult position, because they need to maintain its primary process, but they do not want to anger the 2.3 million Democratic voters in Michigan and Florida and do not want to prolong the battle for the nomination.

And did I mention that Michigan and Florida are swing state electoral goldmines that are vital to winning the general election?

So, here's my solution. Let's start with Florida.

Florida is pretty simple. Since every major candidate was on the ballot in Florida and no one campaigned there, the DNC should seat the Florida delegates that were elected on January 29, giving each delegate one half of a vote at the convention.

Clinton's people will be happy because they got what they wanted, and Obama's people will have to put up with it because they don't want to start another argument that would prolong the start of the general election campaign. She would net 19 delegates.

Michigan is much trickier. Clinton's people want to seat the delegates as is, which means that since no one voted for Obama officially, he should receive no delegates. The DNC will not go for this, and will look for a compromise, that could be very complicated.

But I have a simple solution. Since Edwards endorsed Obama, and the bulk of Edwards' pledged delegates have already shifted towards Obama, I would give Obama all of the uncommitted votes. Then I would give each pledged delegate half of a vote at the convention, and she would net 9 delegates.

Then, the DNC should strip the state party leaders who were responsible for moving up the primaries of their superdelegate status.

This way, Obama will be relieved that it's all over and done with, Clinton won't have much of a leg to stand on because the delegates will be seated based on the voting results, and it won't affect the overall outcome of the primaries (Obama's lead would just go down from about 200 to 172). Clinton might appeal, but I doubt it.

The Democrats need these two states in the fall, so they must try to favor Clinton with their decisions, so those 2.3 million voters feel like their voices have been heard.

The DNC should not punish these voters for what their party leaders did, and they cannot risk losing Michigan and Florida's combined 44 electoral votes in the general election because of their pride and stubbornness.

I will be watching very closely tomorrow to see what the Rules and Bylaws Committee comes up with.

No comments: