Dems Dominating Special Elections

With all this talk of divisiveness and "grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory" within the Democratic party, they have at least one thing going their way.

In almost each special congressional election--where the current representative either stepped down or retired--the Democratic candidates have consistently won in heavily Republican districts.

For instance, when former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) stepped down in Illinois' 14th district (IL-14)--which has a PVI (Partisan Voting Index) rating of R+5--the Republicans thought that they would get it back easily.

But Democratic candidate Bill Foster--with the endorsement and active support of Barack Obama--upset Jim Oberweis (R) by a margin of 6 percentage points in March. Both party's national committees poured millions into this race, but Foster took Hastert's place in the House.

Also, on April 22nd, Travis Childers (D) defeated Greg Davis (R) in MS-01, a district with a PVI of R+10. Childers received just under 50% while Davis received 46%. Because neither candidate reached 50%, there will be a runoff election on May 13th, but it looks like the Democrats have it wrapped up.

And yesterday, in LA-06, Don Cazayoux (D) got 49% of the vote to Woody Jenkins' (R) 46%. This district has a PVI of R+7, where President Bush received 59% of the vote here in 2004. And up until yesterday, this district had been held by Republicans for 33 years.

The Republicans referred to him as Don Cazayoux as Don "Tax You" and called him a liberal--which is an insult and voting deterrent in the south.

They tried to tie him to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi, and tried everything in their playbook--one that will be similar to the one the Republicans will be using on Obama or Clinton in November--but to no avail.

Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) advertised heavily here, but the end result was the same: a Democrat won in a heavily Republican district.

See a pattern?

Although the presidential race is most likely going to be very close, the Democrats are expected to make major gains in the Congressional election. There are many seats that the Republicans are in danger of losing, but only a few where the Democratic incumbent is in danger.

On top of that, the DCCC has outraised the NRCC $88 million to $65 million so far in 2008. They have raised and spent more money that the Republicans so far, and it will be the same in November.

This shows a general trend of more enthusiasm, energy, and fundraising cash on the Democratic side, which will make a major impact on the congressional and presidential races this fall.