North Carolina and Indiana Scenarios

As Democrats in North Carolina and Indiana go to the polls to vote in the last big primary day of the year (thank God), I thought I'd lay out a few scenarios for tonight's results.

If Hillary Clinton pulls off a win in both states, by however small a margin, the media will have a field day talking about come-from-behind victories and the impact of Rev. Wright.

Also, many Democratic voters--and more importantly, uncommitted superdelegates--are going to seriously re-evaluate Barack Obama.

The popular vote margin will be even closer, and Clinton will use the media spotlight to push for those Michigan and Florida re-does that she wants so bad.

If Obama wins both, then there will be a lot of pressure for Clinton to drop out of the race for the good of the Democratic party. But if you know Hillary Clinton half as well as I do, you know that she won't drop out. Not until after June 3.

Over the next two weeks, West Virginia and Kentucky will be voting--two states where she has been crushing Obama in the polls. That's probably because they have gobs of working-class whites. And what could a few more months hurt anyway, right?

And now, for the most likely scenario: an even split. That means this process will definitely carry on to June 3, and probably beyond. But with each primary and caucus, Clinton's math becomes even more daunting.

Even if Clinton wins big tonight, Obama will have maintain a lead of at least 130 pledged delegates, with only 217 pledged delegates yet to be elected. Clinton would need over 80% of the remaining pledged delegates to take a lead there.

And her lead among superdelegates has shrunk to 15 according to Real Clear Politics. In the longrun, she needs to overtake him in the popular vote and get an overwhelming support of superdelegates in the last months before the convention if she wants to have a shot.

Tonight, the pressure's on Clinton. Obama can take a hit--he's got the math on his side. She needs to capitalize on his mistakes and controversies that have occurred this past months and get a big psychological win.

She needs to come out with a big win in at least one of these states. If she fails, the clock will have just struck 11:59.