Steelman Likely To Run in MO; Fisher Close to a Decision in OH

In Missouri, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) is "very, very likely" to run for the Senate in 2010, according to two Republican sources close to Steelman.

If Steelman decides to run, as expected, there will be a bruising top-notch GOP primary battle between her and Rep. Roy Blunt, who is expected to announce his candidacy soon. It is clear that Blunt would have the support of the Republican establishment, and that Steelman would be the anti-establishment candidate. Former Sen. Jim Talent is also pondering running for the seat, but Blunt's people are reportedly trying to get Talent to wait his turn.

The longer and more drawn out the GOP primary battle becomes, the better it is for Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the likely Democratic nominee--as the two Republicans spend more and more money against each other while turning increasingly negative.

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In Ohio, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) told OhioDaily that his decision on a 2010 Senate bid will come in the next 45 days.

Fisher is seen by many Democrats--including his boss, Gov. Ted Strickland--to be the strongest candidate to face off against former Rep. Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee. Recent polls like this one and this one confirm that Fisher would probably be the strongest Democrat in the general election.

Other potential Democratic candidates include Ohio Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner and Rep. Tim Ryan.

Poll: Kansas Seat is Sebelius' For the Taking

A new Research 2000 poll shows that Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) would start out as the strong favorite to win the state's open Senate seat in 2010.

Sebelius leads both announced Republican candidates, Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, by double-digits. She also has a strong 56-37 approval rating in a state that has is considered to be safely Republican and one that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in over 76 years.

The poll also pitted Moran and Tiahrt against each other in the GOP primary, with Tiahrt holding a narrow advantage, though a majority of Republican voters are undecided at this point.

Here are the numbers:

Republican Primary
Tiahrt--24%
Moran--19%

General Election
Sebelius--47%
Tiahrt--37%

Sebelius--48%
Moran--36%

Sebelius, who will be term-limited in 2010, would be the single most prized recruit in the nation for the DSCC. She is seen as not only the early favorite to win a Senate seat in conservative Kansas, but also as the only Democrat who could even make the race remotely competitive.

However, Sebelius has not yet expressed any interest in the race, and her name is being floated as a possible Secretary of Health and Human Services to replace Tom Daschle. But she has already withdrew her name from consideration for a cabinet post last year.

She is also reportedly interested in becoming chancellor of the University of Kansas, her alma mater, which would mean that she would not run for Senate.

We'll just have to wait and see what her next move is.

KY: Poll Shows Dead Heat

A new Research 2000 poll shows a statistical dead heat between the six major potential candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Kentucky.

The poll pitted two Republicans (incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Sec. of State Trey Grayson) against four Democrats (Rep. Ben Chandler, state Attorney Gen. Jack Conway, state Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo) in hypothetical general election match-ups.

The poll actually had some good news for Bunning regarding his electability, even as Republican leaders are pressuring him to retire. That said, his leads over all four Democrats are within the margin of error, and he would face the race of his life against any of these four Democrats. The head-to-heads with Grayson and the four Democrats yield even tighter results. Here are the numbers:

Bunning--45%
Chandler--42%

Bunning--46%
Conway--42%

Bunning--45%
Luallen--41%

Bunning--46%
Mongiardo--42%

Grayson--42%
Chandler--42%

Grayson--42%
Conway--41%

Grayson--42%
Luallen--42%

Grayson--43%
Mongiardo--42%

These results are bizarre because Bunning only holds a 41% favorability rating among Kentucky voters, while 47% view him unfavorably. That’s a lower favorability rating than President Obama, who lost the state by 19 points in November.

He still holds relatively stong support in Kentucky despite his poor favorability rating most likely because of the state's strong conservative leanings. Kentuckyans are relatively familiar with the four Democrats tested in the poll.

Mongiardo, the only announced Democratic candidate so far, holds a favorability rating of 50/40 and is most well-known among the four.

The next Democrat that is most likely to jump in is Conway, who holds a 48/27 favorability rating, which is stronger than Mongiardo's numbers, but he is more unknown to Kentucky voters at this point.

Chandler and Luallen, who both hold excellent approval ratings, are thought to be less likely to enter the race, but could still give Bunning a good challenge if they decided to run.

Grayson polls at least evenly with all four Democrats despite the fact he has very low name recognition, which means that he potentially has room to make gains. He would probably the stronger general election candidate for the GOP, but will probably only enter the race if Bunning chooses to retire (which is unlikely because Bunning has reiterated time and time again that he is running).

So to sum up, Bunning--despite his unpopularity--could still potentially hold his seat given how conservative Kentucky is. But at best it would be a nail biter, as all four of the Democrats included in the poll have the potential to defeat him. Bunning is still undoubtedly the most vulnerable incumbent of the 2010 cycle.

Poll: Dems Lead in Ohio Senate Race

A new Quinnipiac poll tested several potential (and announced) candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Ohio to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH).

Those candidates were: former Rep. Rob Portman and state Auditor Mary Taylor on the Republican side and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Rep. Tim Ryan on the Democratic side. Here are the numbers:

Republican Primary
Portman--33%
Taylor--11%

Democratic Primary
Fisher--18%
Brunner--16%
Ryan--14%

General Election
Fisher--42%
Portman--27%

Fisher--41%
Taylor--27%

Brunner--38%
Portman--28%

Brunner--38%
Taylor--26%

Before we start to analyze these results, keep in mind that none of these potential candidates are known well enough for Ohio voters to have an opinion of them, so there is plenty of room to improve as they get introduced to those voters.

That said, these numbers are disappointing for Republicans and good news for Democrats. The GOP got its candidate of choice, Rob Portman, to enter the race--but he still loses to both Democrats by significant margins. It also appears that the Democratic brand is still stronger than the Republican brand in Ohio, but that may change as we head closer to 2010 and farther away from the presidency of George W. Bush.

None of the Democratic candidates have made their mind up about entering the race, but Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) made it clear that he would back Fisher over Brunner.

Strickland told the Cleveland Plain Dealer, "My commitment is to him first. I believe Lee would be the strongest candidate if he were to choose to run. I don't say that to disparage Jennifer. She would be a very strong and credible candidate."

Even though the poll shows that Fisher has a nominal lead over Brunner in the Democratic primary, a Strickland endorsement would make it difficult for Brunner to get any serious traction, especially in the fundraising department. Strickland’s support for Fisher also strongly suggests that the other Democrat tested in the poll, Rep. Tim Ryan (who is also Strickland's old congressional colleague), won't make a run for the seat.

Fisher said that he would make his decision regardless of whether he would face Brunner or any other serious opposition in the primary. However, Fisher has been talking to Brunner in private about the race, and a bitter primary between the two could be damaging to party's chances against Portman. But I think that a primary battle between the two is unlikely.

Now all we have to wait for are the announcements of the candidacies, which should be coming in the following months.

Norm Coleman May Not Be Done For After All

From Political Wire:

Judges said that nearly 4,800 rejected absentee ballots may be reconsidered in Minnesota's U.S. Senate recount trial, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports, which "would appear to be enough to put the ultimate outcome in doubt."

Al Franken (D), who holds a 225 vote lead in the race, had asked the judges to allow only 650 ballots that Norm Coleman (R) said he planned to challenge.

Is this thing ever going to end?

UPDATE: (from FiveThirtyEight.com)

The Court has also ruled, apparently, that the 4,800 absentee ballots Coleman wants to have counted will be held to a much higher burden of proof. Essentially, those ballots will be presumed to be guilty until proven innocent, and will have to be advocated for one at a time by the Coleman campaign, rather than being opened summarily and counted in bulk. This will make Coleman's rate of success very, very, very low, as opposed to merely very, very low. As Talking Points Memo notes, however, this process could take a very long time to complete and could continue to the delay the seating of a Senator Franken -- which may be Coleman's principal objective in the first place.

MO: Carnahan is In

Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) officially announced earlier today that she will be running for the Senate in 2010 to succeed retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO).

This announcement was widely anticipated, as Carnahan was thought to be the Democrats' strongest recruit to flip the seat. Politico points out that "last year, she received over 1.74 million votes in her reelection bid for Secretary of State--more votes than any other candidate in statewide history."

Carnahan comes from Missouri's most prominent Democratic family, and isn't expected to face serious (if any) opposition for the Democratic nomination.

Carnahan will likely face Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)--who has been gathering financial, state and national establishment support--in the general election in what will be a clash of the titans, and will make for one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.

Blunt could be significantly weakened in the primary if former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman enters the race. Steelman has already blasted Blunt as "an insider" and seems serious about running for Republican nomination.

If Blunt comes out on top, his campaign cash will be depleted and he will have been bruised by a barrage of attack from the Steelman camp portraying him as a Washington insider. If Steelman somehow magically manages to win the nomination, then she will be weakened by establishment-funded attacks and will probably fall to Carnahan in the general election. Blunt is trying to dissuade former Sen. Jim Talent (R) from entering the race, but if he jumps in, things get a lot more complicated and the Democrats will have a lot more to cheer about.

NH: Newman Will Replace Gregg; Hodes Will Run

As expected, Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) will appoint Republican Bonnie Newman to fill Sen. Judd Gregg's (R-NH) seat in the Senate.

Newman, Gregg's former chief of staff, is a moderate Republican likened to Maine's Republican Senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. Newman is not expected to run for a full term in 2010, thus creating an open seat opportunity for the Democrats and probably their best take-over prospect.

The Manchester Union Leader reports that Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) will announce his candidacy for the seat within the week. Hodes (above) is thought to be the strongest Democratic candidate and an odds-on favorite to win the nomination.

CNN notes that New Hampshire's other representative, Carol Shea-Porter (D) is still considering making a run for Gregg's seat, but has not made a decision yet and is keeping her options open. But I think it's unlikely that Shea-Porter will challenge Hodes in a primary, especially if Hodes begins to consolidate support in the state.

The state GOP will concentrate on recruiting former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) to make a political comeback, after handily losing his seat to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. If Sununu opts out, the Republican bench becomes very thin, with state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, former Rep. Charlie Bass and Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta being the most logical second-tier candidates.

FL: Crist Considers Senate Bid

Roll Call is reporting that Florida's popular Republican governor, Charlie Crist, is "giving serious consideration to running for Senate." Crist, if he entered the race, would be running to replace the retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) in 2010.

Crist already "has had multiple serious conversations about running for Senate with both Martinez and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn," so it looks like he's really seriously considering running. Also, the Democratic field is looking fairly weak now that the Democrats' top recruit, state CFO Alex Sink, opted out of running for the Senate seat.

Crist may be emboldened to run for the seat after looking at Research 2000's latest poll, which shows that he has astronomical favorables and that he would crush any primary and general election opposition.

The other top potential Republican contenders--namely former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Connie Mack--are widely thought to be waiting for Crist to announce what he is doing before deciding their own plans for 2010.

Right now, I have this open Florida race categorized as a "Toss-Up", but if Crist entered the race it would quickly change to "Safe GOP." The seat is his for the taking. If he opts out, the Republican primary will be a free-for-all. The only question is: will he be willing to give up the governor's mansion so soon when he could easily be reelected to that position in the same year?

Politico's Josh Kraushaar reports that several Florida Republican operatives are saying that a Crist Senate run is unlikely, "but no one would close the door on the possibility."

Florida Republican party chairman Jim Greer said that Crist won't make any decisions until May.

NY-A: Schumer Might Run Unopposed

It's been known for a while that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the third highest-ranked Democrat in the Senate, would not face any real opposition for his seat in 2010.

But with the New York's already feeble Republican Party focused on challenging newly-appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 special election, it's looking more and more likely that Schumer could run unopposed.

In 2004, when Schumer was last up for reelection, the GOP's sacrificial lamb lost to Schumer 71% to 24%--the widest margin of defeat in the Empire State's history. He also already has a $10 million campaign war chest ready to go just in case.

If you were a New York Republican with anything to lose, would you want to challenge Schumer? Yeah, I didn't think so.

KS: Tiahrt is Officially In, Setting Up Primary Battle

Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS) announced yesterday that he will be making a run for retiring Republican Sam Brownback's Senate seat in 2010. Tiahrt (left) has long been expected to enter the race, but yesterday was his officially announcement of his candidacy.

Awaiting him in the GOP primary is Rep. Jerry Moran, who announced his candidacy in late 2008. There is expected to be a huge battle between the two House colleagues, leading up to the August primary.

It is not surprising that two high profile Republicans would battle it out in the primary for this particular race, because the seat has gone Republican for the last 28 elections, dating back to 1936 (back when FDR was a spring chicken).

Only one poll of this primary has been released thus far, and it was an internal poll from Moran's camp that showed him leading Tiahrt 41% to 25% in a head-to-head primary match-up among Republican voters, with 34% undecided. This result is not surprising, as Moran is more well-known statewide than Tiahrt (and is also considered to be the slight favorite).

If the primary contest turns bitter and divisive, it could have a negative effect on the winner come the general election. If Tiahrt, who is seen as slightly more conservative than Moran, makes the primary into an ideological battle and tries to paint Moran as a moderate and prevails, moderate Republican voters might stay away from the polls or even back the Democratic nominee.

Of course, these damaging primary battle scenarios are contingent on whether the Democrats can recruit popular and moderate Gov. Kathleen Sebelius--who will be term-limited in 2010--to run. Sebelius is the only Democrat who can make this seat competitive, but if she does jump in, this race will be one of the most important and neck-and-neck Senate races in the country come 2010.

If Sebelius decides not to run, whoever comes out of the Republican primary--whether it be Moran or Tiahrt--will become the next United States Senator from Kansas.