KY: Poll Shows Dead Heat

A new Research 2000 poll shows a statistical dead heat between the six major potential candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Kentucky.

The poll pitted two Republicans (incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Sec. of State Trey Grayson) against four Democrats (Rep. Ben Chandler, state Attorney Gen. Jack Conway, state Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo) in hypothetical general election match-ups.

The poll actually had some good news for Bunning regarding his electability, even as Republican leaders are pressuring him to retire. That said, his leads over all four Democrats are within the margin of error, and he would face the race of his life against any of these four Democrats. The head-to-heads with Grayson and the four Democrats yield even tighter results. Here are the numbers:

Bunning--45%
Chandler--42%

Bunning--46%
Conway--42%

Bunning--45%
Luallen--41%

Bunning--46%
Mongiardo--42%

Grayson--42%
Chandler--42%

Grayson--42%
Conway--41%

Grayson--42%
Luallen--42%

Grayson--43%
Mongiardo--42%

These results are bizarre because Bunning only holds a 41% favorability rating among Kentucky voters, while 47% view him unfavorably. That’s a lower favorability rating than President Obama, who lost the state by 19 points in November.

He still holds relatively stong support in Kentucky despite his poor favorability rating most likely because of the state's strong conservative leanings. Kentuckyans are relatively familiar with the four Democrats tested in the poll.

Mongiardo, the only announced Democratic candidate so far, holds a favorability rating of 50/40 and is most well-known among the four.

The next Democrat that is most likely to jump in is Conway, who holds a 48/27 favorability rating, which is stronger than Mongiardo's numbers, but he is more unknown to Kentucky voters at this point.

Chandler and Luallen, who both hold excellent approval ratings, are thought to be less likely to enter the race, but could still give Bunning a good challenge if they decided to run.

Grayson polls at least evenly with all four Democrats despite the fact he has very low name recognition, which means that he potentially has room to make gains. He would probably the stronger general election candidate for the GOP, but will probably only enter the race if Bunning chooses to retire (which is unlikely because Bunning has reiterated time and time again that he is running).

So to sum up, Bunning--despite his unpopularity--could still potentially hold his seat given how conservative Kentucky is. But at best it would be a nail biter, as all four of the Democrats included in the poll have the potential to defeat him. Bunning is still undoubtedly the most vulnerable incumbent of the 2010 cycle.