MO: Carnahan is In

Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) officially announced earlier today that she will be running for the Senate in 2010 to succeed retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO).

This announcement was widely anticipated, as Carnahan was thought to be the Democrats' strongest recruit to flip the seat. Politico points out that "last year, she received over 1.74 million votes in her reelection bid for Secretary of State--more votes than any other candidate in statewide history."

Carnahan comes from Missouri's most prominent Democratic family, and isn't expected to face serious (if any) opposition for the Democratic nomination.

Carnahan will likely face Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)--who has been gathering financial, state and national establishment support--in the general election in what will be a clash of the titans, and will make for one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.

Blunt could be significantly weakened in the primary if former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman enters the race. Steelman has already blasted Blunt as "an insider" and seems serious about running for Republican nomination.

If Blunt comes out on top, his campaign cash will be depleted and he will have been bruised by a barrage of attack from the Steelman camp portraying him as a Washington insider. If Steelman somehow magically manages to win the nomination, then she will be weakened by establishment-funded attacks and will probably fall to Carnahan in the general election. Blunt is trying to dissuade former Sen. Jim Talent (R) from entering the race, but if he jumps in, things get a lot more complicated and the Democrats will have a lot more to cheer about.