KS: Tiahrt is Officially In, Setting Up Primary Battle

Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS) announced yesterday that he will be making a run for retiring Republican Sam Brownback's Senate seat in 2010. Tiahrt (left) has long been expected to enter the race, but yesterday was his officially announcement of his candidacy.

Awaiting him in the GOP primary is Rep. Jerry Moran, who announced his candidacy in late 2008. There is expected to be a huge battle between the two House colleagues, leading up to the August primary.

It is not surprising that two high profile Republicans would battle it out in the primary for this particular race, because the seat has gone Republican for the last 28 elections, dating back to 1936 (back when FDR was a spring chicken).

Only one poll of this primary has been released thus far, and it was an internal poll from Moran's camp that showed him leading Tiahrt 41% to 25% in a head-to-head primary match-up among Republican voters, with 34% undecided. This result is not surprising, as Moran is more well-known statewide than Tiahrt (and is also considered to be the slight favorite).

If the primary contest turns bitter and divisive, it could have a negative effect on the winner come the general election. If Tiahrt, who is seen as slightly more conservative than Moran, makes the primary into an ideological battle and tries to paint Moran as a moderate and prevails, moderate Republican voters might stay away from the polls or even back the Democratic nominee.

Of course, these damaging primary battle scenarios are contingent on whether the Democrats can recruit popular and moderate Gov. Kathleen Sebelius--who will be term-limited in 2010--to run. Sebelius is the only Democrat who can make this seat competitive, but if she does jump in, this race will be one of the most important and neck-and-neck Senate races in the country come 2010.

If Sebelius decides not to run, whoever comes out of the Republican primary--whether it be Moran or Tiahrt--will become the next United States Senator from Kansas.