A new PPP poll shows that there is no clear front-runner in the race to replace Sen. Bonnie Newman (R-NH) in 2010. Newman was appointed to replace Judd Gregg (R) after Gregg was tapped as President Obama's Commerce Secretary last week. Newman is not expected to run for the seat in 2010.
The poll pitted Democratic Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter against two Republicans, former Sen. John Sununu and Rep. Charlie Bass. Here are the numbers:
Hodes--46%
Sununu--44%
Hodes--40%
Bass--37%
Shea-Porter--45%
Sununu--46%
Shea-Porter--42%
Bass--43%
Both Sununu and Bass run well against these two Democrats, but if both of them decide to pass on the race--Sununu has not shown any interest in the race and Bass will probably run for Hodes' House seat--the Republican bench gets very thin and they won't have much of a chance of retaining the seat.
On the Democratic side, Hodes has already announced his candidacy and the Democratic establishment is beginning to rally around him. The poll found that 42% of New Hampshire voters view Hodes favorably while 34% view him unfavorably.
Shea-Porter is still reportedly pondering a run, but might defer because of the support that Hodes is garnering. She has an approval rating of 43-40, and does slightly worse than Hodes against both potential Republican candidates.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
MO: Talent is Out
Former Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) announced yesterday that he will not be running for retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond's Senate seat in 2010.“There are other qualified Republicans who are seriously investigating the race, and it is vital to prevent the kind of dissension that hurt my party’s ticket so greatly in 2008,” Talent said in a statement.
Now the Republican field has essentially come down to two candidates: Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Blunt, who would be the state GOP's establishment pick, is set to announce his candidacy very soon. Steelman, who would be the anti-establishment candidate, is thought very likely to enter the race.
Talent’s allusion to “other qualified Republicans” means that he's not ready to take a side yet, and has not yet counted out Steelman.
Blunt has been consolidating financial and GOP establishment support the past few weeks, and has been pressuring Talent not to challenge him in the primary. Steelman, in the meantime, has wasted no time in calling Blunt "an insider," while portraying herself as an "outsider."
The Scorecard points out: "Steelman ran unsuccessfully for governor last year, but has strong support from conservatives for her vocal criticism of earmarks and wasteful spending."
If Steelman enters the race, as expected, the Republican primary will likely turn very divisive and negative. The more the attacks escalate and the more advertisement money is spent in the primary, the happier Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the expected Democratic nominee--will be.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
CT: Is Dodd Vulnerable?
Per The Scorecard:
Could Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) be a sleeper target for Senate Republicans?
A new Quinnipiac poll shows the five-term Connecticut senator is highly vulnerable heading into his re-election next year. A 51 percent majority of Connecticut voters said they probably won’t be voting for him, with only 42 percent saying they’d likely support him.
Dogging Dodd is allegations that he received a sweetheart mortgage deal from Countrywide Financial. He also lost support after launching a quixotic presidential campaign, where he camped out in Iowa for several months.
A 56 percent majority of Connecticut voters said they were less likely to vote for him because of the mortgage scandal. And by a 54 to 24 percent margin, they didn’t buy Dodd’s explanation – that the low-interest loans were a “courtesy” – and want further details.
“Senator Dodd is vulnerable. His approval has sunk to a new low. More voters disapprove than approve of the job he is doing for the first time in 15 years of polling,” said Quinnipiac Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. “The mortgage controversy has taken a toll on his approval rating.”
On the fundraising front, Dodd only has $671,000 in his campaign account – significantly less than most vulnerable incumbents have on hand. But his connections as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee should allow him to quickly ramp up his fundraising in preparation for a tough race.
Republicans are already trying to recruit a credible challenger against Dodd, with former GOP congressman Rob Simmons heading the list. Simmons narrowly lost a Democratic-leaning House seat in 2006, and served as Connecticut’s Business Advocate after his defeat.
Monday, February 9, 2009
PA: Torsella Will Challenge Specter
Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) has his first Democratic challenger for 2010, when he will be running for a sixth term.
The Times Leader reports:
Torsella last ran for public office in 2004 when he unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA) for an open House seat in the Democratic primary. He may now face her in a rematch in 2010, as Schwartz is reportedly pondering a Senate run herself.
Specter, who is notoriously moderate (and one of three Republicans to vote for the economic stimulus package), was expecting to face the conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey in the GOP primary. But Toomey announced last month that he would not be challenging Specter, thus freeing Specter from swerving to the right, which would have made him more vulnerable in the general election in an increasingly blue state.
Whether the Democratic nominee is Torsella or Schwartz or someone else, Specter is narrowly favored to win reelection and head back to the Senate for a sixth term, but he is certainly no shoo-in--even without a serious primary challenger.
The Times Leader reports:
Philadelphia civic leader Joe Torsella says he’ll seek the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Arlen Specter.
The 45-year-old Torsella is a former president of the National Constitution Center and the current chairman of the State Board of Education.
Torsella says he filed paperwork Monday to form a committee to raise and spend money, and that he will announce his candidacy in the weeks ahead.
Torsella last ran for public office in 2004 when he unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA) for an open House seat in the Democratic primary. He may now face her in a rematch in 2010, as Schwartz is reportedly pondering a Senate run herself.
Specter, who is notoriously moderate (and one of three Republicans to vote for the economic stimulus package), was expecting to face the conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey in the GOP primary. But Toomey announced last month that he would not be challenging Specter, thus freeing Specter from swerving to the right, which would have made him more vulnerable in the general election in an increasingly blue state.
Whether the Democratic nominee is Torsella or Schwartz or someone else, Specter is narrowly favored to win reelection and head back to the Senate for a sixth term, but he is certainly no shoo-in--even without a serious primary challenger.
Steelman Likely To Run in MO; Fisher Close to a Decision in OH
In Missouri, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) is "very, very likely" to run for the Senate in 2010, according to two Republican sources close to Steelman.
If Steelman decides to run, as expected, there will be a bruising top-notch GOP primary battle between her and Rep. Roy Blunt, who is expected to announce his candidacy soon. It is clear that Blunt would have the support of the Republican establishment, and that Steelman would be the anti-establishment candidate. Former Sen. Jim Talent is also pondering running for the seat, but Blunt's people are reportedly trying to get Talent to wait his turn.
The longer and more drawn out the GOP primary battle becomes, the better it is for Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the likely Democratic nominee--as the two Republicans spend more and more money against each other while turning increasingly negative.
If Steelman decides to run, as expected, there will be a bruising top-notch GOP primary battle between her and Rep. Roy Blunt, who is expected to announce his candidacy soon. It is clear that Blunt would have the support of the Republican establishment, and that Steelman would be the anti-establishment candidate. Former Sen. Jim Talent is also pondering running for the seat, but Blunt's people are reportedly trying to get Talent to wait his turn.
The longer and more drawn out the GOP primary battle becomes, the better it is for Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the likely Democratic nominee--as the two Republicans spend more and more money against each other while turning increasingly negative.
--
In Ohio, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) told OhioDaily that his decision on a 2010 Senate bid will come in the next 45 days.
Fisher is seen by many Democrats--including his boss, Gov. Ted Strickland--to be the strongest candidate to face off against former Rep. Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee. Recent polls like this one and this one confirm that Fisher would probably be the strongest Democrat in the general election.
Other potential Democratic candidates include Ohio Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner and Rep. Tim Ryan.
Fisher is seen by many Democrats--including his boss, Gov. Ted Strickland--to be the strongest candidate to face off against former Rep. Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee. Recent polls like this one and this one confirm that Fisher would probably be the strongest Democrat in the general election.
Other potential Democratic candidates include Ohio Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner and Rep. Tim Ryan.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Poll: Kansas Seat is Sebelius' For the Taking
A new Research 2000 poll shows that Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) would start out as the strong favorite to win the state's open Senate seat in 2010.
Sebelius leads both announced Republican candidates, Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, by double-digits. She also has a strong 56-37 approval rating in a state that has is considered to be safely Republican and one that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in over 76 years.
The poll also pitted Moran and Tiahrt against each other in the GOP primary, with Tiahrt holding a narrow advantage, though a majority of Republican voters are undecided at this point.
Here are the numbers:
Republican Primary
Tiahrt--24%
Moran--19%
General Election
Sebelius--47%
Tiahrt--37%
Sebelius--48%
Moran--36%
Sebelius, who will be term-limited in 2010, would be the single most prized recruit in the nation for the DSCC. She is seen as not only the early favorite to win a Senate seat in conservative Kansas, but also as the only Democrat who could even make the race remotely competitive.
However, Sebelius has not yet expressed any interest in the race, and her name is being floated as a possible Secretary of Health and Human Services to replace Tom Daschle. But she has already withdrew her name from consideration for a cabinet post last year.
She is also reportedly interested in becoming chancellor of the University of Kansas, her alma mater, which would mean that she would not run for Senate.
We'll just have to wait and see what her next move is.
Sebelius leads both announced Republican candidates, Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, by double-digits. She also has a strong 56-37 approval rating in a state that has is considered to be safely Republican and one that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in over 76 years.
The poll also pitted Moran and Tiahrt against each other in the GOP primary, with Tiahrt holding a narrow advantage, though a majority of Republican voters are undecided at this point.
Here are the numbers:
Republican Primary
Tiahrt--24%
Moran--19%
General Election
Sebelius--47%
Tiahrt--37%
Sebelius--48%
Moran--36%
Sebelius, who will be term-limited in 2010, would be the single most prized recruit in the nation for the DSCC. She is seen as not only the early favorite to win a Senate seat in conservative Kansas, but also as the only Democrat who could even make the race remotely competitive.
However, Sebelius has not yet expressed any interest in the race, and her name is being floated as a possible Secretary of Health and Human Services to replace Tom Daschle. But she has already withdrew her name from consideration for a cabinet post last year.
She is also reportedly interested in becoming chancellor of the University of Kansas, her alma mater, which would mean that she would not run for Senate.
We'll just have to wait and see what her next move is.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
KY: Poll Shows Dead Heat
A new Research 2000 poll shows a statistical dead heat between the six major potential candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Kentucky.
The poll pitted two Republicans (incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Sec. of State Trey Grayson) against four Democrats (Rep. Ben Chandler, state Attorney Gen. Jack Conway, state Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo) in hypothetical general election match-ups.
The poll actually had some good news for Bunning regarding his electability, even as Republican leaders are pressuring him to retire. That said, his leads over all four Democrats are within the margin of error, and he would face the race of his life against any of these four Democrats. The head-to-heads with Grayson and the four Democrats yield even tighter results. Here are the numbers:
Bunning--45%
Chandler--42%
Bunning--46%
Conway--42%
Bunning--45%
Luallen--41%
Bunning--46%
Mongiardo--42%
Grayson--42%
Chandler--42%
Grayson--42%
Conway--41%
Grayson--42%
Luallen--42%
Grayson--43%
Mongiardo--42%
These results are bizarre because Bunning only holds a 41% favorability rating among Kentucky voters, while 47% view him unfavorably. That’s a lower favorability rating than President Obama, who lost the state by 19 points in November.
He still holds relatively stong support in Kentucky despite his poor favorability rating most likely because of the state's strong conservative leanings. Kentuckyans are relatively familiar with the four Democrats tested in the poll.
Mongiardo, the only announced Democratic candidate so far, holds a favorability rating of 50/40 and is most well-known among the four.
The next Democrat that is most likely to jump in is Conway, who holds a 48/27 favorability rating, which is stronger than Mongiardo's numbers, but he is more unknown to Kentucky voters at this point.
Chandler and Luallen, who both hold excellent approval ratings, are thought to be less likely to enter the race, but could still give Bunning a good challenge if they decided to run.
Grayson polls at least evenly with all four Democrats despite the fact he has very low name recognition, which means that he potentially has room to make gains. He would probably the stronger general election candidate for the GOP, but will probably only enter the race if Bunning chooses to retire (which is unlikely because Bunning has reiterated time and time again that he is running).
So to sum up, Bunning--despite his unpopularity--could still potentially hold his seat given how conservative Kentucky is. But at best it would be a nail biter, as all four of the Democrats included in the poll have the potential to defeat him. Bunning is still undoubtedly the most vulnerable incumbent of the 2010 cycle.
The poll pitted two Republicans (incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Sec. of State Trey Grayson) against four Democrats (Rep. Ben Chandler, state Attorney Gen. Jack Conway, state Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo) in hypothetical general election match-ups.
The poll actually had some good news for Bunning regarding his electability, even as Republican leaders are pressuring him to retire. That said, his leads over all four Democrats are within the margin of error, and he would face the race of his life against any of these four Democrats. The head-to-heads with Grayson and the four Democrats yield even tighter results. Here are the numbers:
Bunning--45%
Chandler--42%
Bunning--46%
Conway--42%
Bunning--45%
Luallen--41%
Bunning--46%
Mongiardo--42%
Grayson--42%
Chandler--42%
Grayson--42%
Conway--41%
Grayson--42%
Luallen--42%
Grayson--43%
Mongiardo--42%
These results are bizarre because Bunning only holds a 41% favorability rating among Kentucky voters, while 47% view him unfavorably. That’s a lower favorability rating than President Obama, who lost the state by 19 points in November.
He still holds relatively stong support in Kentucky despite his poor favorability rating most likely because of the state's strong conservative leanings. Kentuckyans are relatively familiar with the four Democrats tested in the poll.
Mongiardo, the only announced Democratic candidate so far, holds a favorability rating of 50/40 and is most well-known among the four.
The next Democrat that is most likely to jump in is Conway, who holds a 48/27 favorability rating, which is stronger than Mongiardo's numbers, but he is more unknown to Kentucky voters at this point.
Chandler and Luallen, who both hold excellent approval ratings, are thought to be less likely to enter the race, but could still give Bunning a good challenge if they decided to run.
Grayson polls at least evenly with all four Democrats despite the fact he has very low name recognition, which means that he potentially has room to make gains. He would probably the stronger general election candidate for the GOP, but will probably only enter the race if Bunning chooses to retire (which is unlikely because Bunning has reiterated time and time again that he is running).
So to sum up, Bunning--despite his unpopularity--could still potentially hold his seat given how conservative Kentucky is. But at best it would be a nail biter, as all four of the Democrats included in the poll have the potential to defeat him. Bunning is still undoubtedly the most vulnerable incumbent of the 2010 cycle.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Poll: Dems Lead in Ohio Senate Race
A new Quinnipiac poll tested several potential (and announced) candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Ohio to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH).
Those candidates were: former Rep. Rob Portman and state Auditor Mary Taylor on the Republican side and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Rep. Tim Ryan on the Democratic side. Here are the numbers:
Republican Primary
Portman--33%
Taylor--11%
Democratic Primary
Fisher--18%
Brunner--16%
Ryan--14%
General Election
Fisher--42%
Portman--27%
Fisher--41%
Taylor--27%
Brunner--38%
Portman--28%
Brunner--38%
Taylor--26%
Before we start to analyze these results, keep in mind that none of these potential candidates are known well enough for Ohio voters to have an opinion of them, so there is plenty of room to improve as they get introduced to those voters.
That said, these numbers are disappointing for Republicans and good news for Democrats. The GOP got its candidate of choice, Rob Portman, to enter the race--but he still loses to both Democrats by significant margins. It also appears that the Democratic brand is still stronger than the Republican brand in Ohio, but that may change as we head closer to 2010 and farther away from the presidency of George W. Bush.
None of the Democratic candidates have made their mind up about entering the race, but Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) made it clear that he would back Fisher over Brunner.
Strickland told the Cleveland Plain Dealer, "My commitment is to him first. I believe Lee would be the strongest candidate if he were to choose to run. I don't say that to disparage Jennifer. She would be a very strong and credible candidate."
Even though the poll shows that Fisher has a nominal lead over Brunner in the Democratic primary, a Strickland endorsement would make it difficult for Brunner to get any serious traction, especially in the fundraising department. Strickland’s support for Fisher also strongly suggests that the other Democrat tested in the poll, Rep. Tim Ryan (who is also Strickland's old congressional colleague), won't make a run for the seat.
Fisher said that he would make his decision regardless of whether he would face Brunner or any other serious opposition in the primary. However, Fisher has been talking to Brunner in private about the race, and a bitter primary between the two could be damaging to party's chances against Portman. But I think that a primary battle between the two is unlikely.
Now all we have to wait for are the announcements of the candidacies, which should be coming in the following months.
Those candidates were: former Rep. Rob Portman and state Auditor Mary Taylor on the Republican side and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Rep. Tim Ryan on the Democratic side. Here are the numbers:
Republican Primary
Portman--33%
Taylor--11%
Democratic Primary
Fisher--18%
Brunner--16%
Ryan--14%
General Election
Fisher--42%
Portman--27%
Fisher--41%
Taylor--27%
Brunner--38%
Portman--28%
Brunner--38%
Taylor--26%
Before we start to analyze these results, keep in mind that none of these potential candidates are known well enough for Ohio voters to have an opinion of them, so there is plenty of room to improve as they get introduced to those voters.
That said, these numbers are disappointing for Republicans and good news for Democrats. The GOP got its candidate of choice, Rob Portman, to enter the race--but he still loses to both Democrats by significant margins. It also appears that the Democratic brand is still stronger than the Republican brand in Ohio, but that may change as we head closer to 2010 and farther away from the presidency of George W. Bush.
None of the Democratic candidates have made their mind up about entering the race, but Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) made it clear that he would back Fisher over Brunner.
Strickland told the Cleveland Plain Dealer, "My commitment is to him first. I believe Lee would be the strongest candidate if he were to choose to run. I don't say that to disparage Jennifer. She would be a very strong and credible candidate."
Even though the poll shows that Fisher has a nominal lead over Brunner in the Democratic primary, a Strickland endorsement would make it difficult for Brunner to get any serious traction, especially in the fundraising department. Strickland’s support for Fisher also strongly suggests that the other Democrat tested in the poll, Rep. Tim Ryan (who is also Strickland's old congressional colleague), won't make a run for the seat.
Fisher said that he would make his decision regardless of whether he would face Brunner or any other serious opposition in the primary. However, Fisher has been talking to Brunner in private about the race, and a bitter primary between the two could be damaging to party's chances against Portman. But I think that a primary battle between the two is unlikely.
Now all we have to wait for are the announcements of the candidacies, which should be coming in the following months.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Norm Coleman May Not Be Done For After All
From Political Wire:
Is this thing ever going to end?
UPDATE: (from FiveThirtyEight.com)
Judges said that nearly 4,800 rejected absentee ballots may be reconsidered in Minnesota's U.S. Senate recount trial, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports, which "would appear to be enough to put the ultimate outcome in doubt."
Al Franken (D), who holds a 225 vote lead in the race, had asked the judges to allow only 650 ballots that Norm Coleman (R) said he planned to challenge.
Is this thing ever going to end?
UPDATE: (from FiveThirtyEight.com)
The Court has also ruled, apparently, that the 4,800 absentee ballots Coleman wants to have counted will be held to a much higher burden of proof. Essentially, those ballots will be presumed to be guilty until proven innocent, and will have to be advocated for one at a time by the Coleman campaign, rather than being opened summarily and counted in bulk. This will make Coleman's rate of success very, very, very low, as opposed to merely very, very low. As Talking Points Memo notes, however, this process could take a very long time to complete and could continue to the delay the seating of a Senator Franken -- which may be Coleman's principal objective in the first place.
MO: Carnahan is In
Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) officially announced earlier today that she will be running for the Senate in 2010 to succeed retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO).
This announcement was widely anticipated, as Carnahan was thought to be the Democrats' strongest recruit to flip the seat. Politico points out that "last year, she received over 1.74 million votes in her reelection bid for Secretary of State--more votes than any other candidate in statewide history."
Carnahan comes from Missouri's most prominent Democratic family, and isn't expected to face serious (if any) opposition for the Democratic nomination.
Carnahan will likely face Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)--who has been gathering financial, state and national establishment support--in the general election in what will be a clash of the titans, and will make for one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.
Blunt could be significantly weakened in the primary if former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman enters the race. Steelman has already blasted Blunt as "an insider" and seems serious about running for Republican nomination.
If Blunt comes out on top, his campaign cash will be depleted and he will have been bruised by a barrage of attack from the Steelman camp portraying him as a Washington insider. If Steelman somehow magically manages to win the nomination, then she will be weakened by establishment-funded attacks and will probably fall to Carnahan in the general election. Blunt is trying to dissuade former Sen. Jim Talent (R) from entering the race, but if he jumps in, things get a lot more complicated and the Democrats will have a lot more to cheer about.
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