Begich Takes Lead in Alaska Senate Race

Alaska's division of elections counted about 60,000 of the absentee, early and questioned ballots yesterday, and they broke heavily in Democrat Mark Begich's favor.

Before yesterday's count, Begich (left) trailed Sen. Ted Stevens by 3,353 votes. But now, Begich leads Stevens by 814 votes--132,196 to 131,382.

And according to FiveThirtyEight.com, "the remaining votes come from Begich-friendly districts." State elections chief Gail Fenumiai confirmed this by saying that the state's most populous region, based in Anchorage, won't count its ballots until either Monday or Wednesday. Begich is currently the mayor of Anchorage, so he is expected to do very well there, further boosting his chances of winning the seat.

The state still needs to count at least 15,000 questioned ballots and an estimated 25,000 absentees, so this thing is far from over. But it is safe to say that Begich is the overwhelming favorite to win the contested Alaska Senate seat.

It is unclear whether the Republican Party really wants Stevens to win reelection. They want a clean break from the Bush administration as well as corruption, and many Republican Senators do not want their party to be associated with the man. One of the most conservative members of the Senate, Republican Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina has said that he will vote to expel Stevens from the Republican caucus if he wins reelection. On the other hand, a Stevens loss does get the Democrats one step closer to that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority.

If Begich does end up winning this thing, it effectively shuts the door on Sarah Palin's chances of becoming a U.S. Senator, thus helping keep her out of national politics until 2012. If Stevens was expelled from the Senate, she could have ran for the seat in the 2010 special election that would have taken place, and could have boasted that she had executive and legislative experience. But then again, she would lost her credibility as a Washington outsider. And we all know how much she loves to tote that title.

Meanwhile, the Senate race in Minnesota is getting ugly and bitter. Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken by 206 votes but the vote total has changed drastically since last Tuesday. Coleman was up by about 700 votes at one point, but that lead has shrunk considerably. Minnesota election officials are still counting votes.

An automatic hand recount of nearly 3 million vote will start on Nov. 18, and both Coleman and Franken have hired literally hundreds of lawyers each to deal with the inevitable legal debacle. The recount is expected to stretch into mid-December. Coleman's people have already started accusing Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, who is a Democrat, to be biased. They are also tying him to acorn in attempt to try and invalidate him. Expect this thing to get really ugly over the next month.

Big Names Called Down for Georgia Senate Runoff

Since Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss (left) failed to get the 50% needed to claim victory against Democrat Jim Martin, his campaign is calling in all the big Republican guns to help. John McCain, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and Newt Gingrich are expected to go down to the Peach State and stump for Chambliss in a desperate attempt to keep as many Senate seats out of Democratic hands as humanly possible.

High-profile Democrats have not been enthusiastic about getting down to Georgia and campaigning for their guy. Martin has been in contact with Barack Obama, trying to get him to come down and stump for him, but he is in a bit of a bind.

He would love an extra seat in the Senate, but the last thing he wants right now is to fail one of his first tests and appear like he has no sway as president-elect.

There is an eerie similarity between this situation and the situation that Bill Clinton was in when he was first elected president. The Democrats had taken control of the the White House and Congress and there was a run-off election happening in Georgia. The Republican candidate framed his candidacy as a last stand against Democratic filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Clinton and Gore ended up campaigning on behalf of the Democratic candidate, but he lost and Republicans said it was a signal of Clinton's already weakening political standing.

So, I think it's best that Obama plays it safe and sits this one out. It is far too risky for and he has more to lose than to gain. And it is unlikely that the Democrats will reach that 60-seat majority anyway. Of course it would be nice to have another Democrat in the Senate, but at what cost? And it's not like he doesn't have enough to do--he's got his hands full and then some. And I just think for those reasons, he will not campaign for Martin.

However, Martin might be able to get one of the Clintons to help him out. Bill Clinton won the state in 1992 and might still have some sway in the state as a fellow southerner.

Still, by all measures, it looks like Chambliss is still the favorite to hold his seat.

Obama Wins Omaha Electoral Vote

The Omaha World-Herald and several other news organizations have called Nebraska 2nd congressional district for president-elect Barack Obama, splitting the state's electoral votes for the first time in history.

The 2nd district is home to the city of Omaha and its surrounding suburbs, where there is a higher percentage of African Americans and registered Democrats than the rest of Nebraska. Obama poured resources, sent 16 paid staffers and opened three offices in the district.

It is truly amazing that in this landslide, Obama managed to pick up an electoral vote in perhaps the most solidly red region in the country. There will now be a blue circle amidst a sea of red in the Great Plains on national electoral maps.

These results give Obama his 365th electoral vote, while McCain's tally stands at 162. The only electoral votes that are left outstanding are the 11 from Missouri, where John McCain currently leads. MSNBC and FiveThirtyEight.com have called the state for McCain while CNN, Politico, RealClearPolitics have yet to declare a winner.

Something Smells Funny in Alaska

It really does, and I don't think it's that dead moose that Sarah Palin shot from a helicopter. Wouldn't you expect that turnout in Alaska to increase with their first native daughter on a national ticket and an extremely close Senate race? Yeah, I would think so too.

But according to initial reports, turnout in Alaska is down 14% from 2004. On top of that, the polls taken right before presidential election showed John McCain up by 14 points, but he won by 25 points. The polls also showed that Democratic Senate candidate Mark Begich ahead by between 8-22 points. But with most of the votes counted, convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (above) narrowly leads Begich. Those same polls also showed Democrat Ethan Berkowitz leading Rep. Don Young--another Alaskan politician under investigation--but Young is handily beating Berkowitz.

So there seems to be an across-the-board polling failure in Alaska, while the polls were very accurate everywhere else in the country. I don't really know what to make of it, but something isn't right.

Meanwhile, Ted Stevens leads Mark Begich by 3,353 votes with 100% of the precincts reporting, but there are currently at least 9,500 early votes remaining to be counted in Alaska. In addition, there are more than 50,000 absentee votes. Lastly, there are at least 18,000 "questioned" ballots, which consist principally of voters who may have cast ballots away from their home precincts. Begich has led so far among early and absentee votes, meaning that it is very possible that he could close the gap or even pull ahead of Stevens. So this race is still a toss-up. Nate Silver has a good piece on this race.

Senate Republicans and Democrats alike are calling for Stevens's expulsion from the Senate during the lame duck session--regardless of whether or not he is re-elected. If they get the two-thirds majority that is needed to expel him, guess who gets to appoint a new senator? You guessed it: Sarah Palin.

And no, Palin cannot appoint herself to the Senate. But, she can resign as governor so Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell will then become governor, and then have him appoint her to the Senate. Thus, she could become a more central figure in national politics and stay in the spotlight leading up to her probable run for the presidency in 2012. There is a lot more riding on this seat than people think.

And with all of this corruption and ethics scandals and reverse Bradley effect with convicted felons going on in America's frozen tundra, I am considering joining the Alaskan Independence Party.

Poll: Did Palin Hurt or Help?

Rasmussen has a new poll on the subject:

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Republican voters say Alaska Governor Sarah Palin helped John McCain's bid for the presidency, even as news reports surface that some McCain staffers think she was a liability.

Ninety-one percent (91%) of Republicans have a favorable view of Palin, including 65% who say their view is Very Favorable. Only eight percent (8%) have an unfavorable view of her, including three percent (3%) Very Unfavorable.

When asked to choose among some of the GOP's top names for their choice for the party's 2012 presidential nominee, 64% say Palin. The next closest contenders are two former governors and unsuccessful challengers for the presidential nomination this year -- Mike Huckabee of Arkansas with 12% support and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts with 11%.

It appears that as of now, Palin still seems popular with her own party looking ahead to 2012. But is she already the front-runner?

Well, it certainly seems that way, but it is still very very early. I mean, Barack Obama was just elected president three days ago. But this poll does show that most Republicans still have a very favorable view of her, especially the conservative base of the party. Only a small fraction of the party does not view her favorably as of now.

But voters and Americans in general have very short-term memories, and I think her popularity within the party will depend on what she does over the next year or two, as well as what Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty, and Mark Sanford do as well.

Already Looking Ahead to 2012

Senior McCain officials told FOX News reporter Carl Cameron that Sarah Palin didn't know that Africa was a continent--not a country--and that she did not know what countries were involved in the North American Fair Trade Agreement.

If these allegations are true, then all I have to say is "wow!" It is hard to believe (well, maybe not that hard) that this person was almost our Vice President and they didn't even know that Africa was a continent.

These leaks are just another example of the infighting between McCain officials and Sarah Palin's handlers that took place towards the end of the campaign and is clearly continuing after the election. In that time, McCain officials have called Palin a "diva" and a "hillbilly," among other things.

Many McCain officials and supporters are blaming Palin for McCain's loss on Tuesday, and it appears that there is a massive power vacuum within the Republican Party.

Based on what Palin has hinted at as well as her popularity with the conservative base of the Republican Party, it seems likely that she will run for President in 2012. And the more post-election blame-game and infighting there is, the more it hurts her chances in four years as well as the public's perception of her.

I know it seems a bit early to be talking about 2012, but two possible Republican candidates seem to disagree. Mike Huckabee will be visiting the state of Iowa--where the 2012 race for the nomination will begin--in 14 days. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who is largely expected to run in 2012 and is seen as a rising star in the party, will be visiting the state two days after Huckabee.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken of Republicans right after Barack Obama was projected to be the next president of who they would want as their nominee in 2012. Mitt Romney won with 31%, Huckabee came in second with 21%, and Sarah Palin came in third with only 18%.

I know its a long time away, but it will be interesting to see if the Republican Party moves more the right or more to the center with their party platform and standard-bearer for the 2010 and 2012 elections.

Franken Gaining on Coleman in Minn.

Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman's lead over Democratic challenger Al Franken has been shrinking since election day, as state election officials continue to count provisional and absentee ballots. Here are the vote results from the Minnesota Secretary of State's office at various points throughout the day:

9:15 AM
Coleman: 1,211,520
Franken: 1,211,077

10:15 AM
Coleman: 1,211,525
Franken: 1,211,088

1:20 PM
Coleman: 1,211,527
Franken: 1,211,190

9:00 PM
Coleman: 1,211,542
Franken: 1,211,306

So as the day wore on, Coleman's lead has gone down from 443, to 437, to 337, to 236. After all of the votes are counted, regardless of who's ahead, an statewide automatic recount will be triggered. But legally speaking, it is important who has the lead going into the recount. Remember Bush v. Gore?

Coleman has been urging Franken to concede, but the Democrat has adamantly refused and wants all the votes to be counted, then recounted. We will probably not know the winner of this race until December.

Obama Likely to Win One Nebraska Electoral Vote

That's right. Nebraska. The Omaha World-Herald reports:

Good news for Barack Obama supporters.

His odds of bagging an electoral vote in Nebraska grew stronger this morning, with word that 10,000 to 12,000 early ballots and 5,200 provisional ballots are left to count in Douglas County.

Obama won about 61 percent of the early votes counted before Tuesday's election. If that percentage holds with the early ballots left to count, Obama stands a strong chance of winning the Omaha-area 2nd Congressional District.

Republicans did not concede defeat this morning, but they acknowledged the long odds.

John McCain held a 569-vote lead over Obama in the 2nd District at the end of Tuesday.

"I will remain cautiously hopeful but not cautiously optimistic," said Hal Daub, state director for McCain. "I'm disappointed (in the numbers). We really worked hard here, against substantial resources being poured into Nebraska."

The final results in the 2nd District won't be known until next week, but election officials planned to begin counting the early ballots Friday, said David Phipps, Douglas County election commissioner.

This would mark the first time that Nebraska has split its electoral votes. Maine, the other state to award some of its electoral votes by Congressional District, has yet to do so.

Thursday Morning Update

Even though we know that the Democrats will control the executive and legislative branch, the 2008 election is not yet over, and the Obama people don't know exactly what kind of Congress they will be working with, as several races still hang in the balance:

Politico.com and FiveThirtyEight.com have just projected that Barack Obama will win reliably red North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes. Right now, Obama has 49.9% to McCain's 49.5% with 100% of the precincts reporting, yet Politico is the only major site or network to project a winner.

MSNBC has called Missouri for McCain, who leads Obama by 0.2% with 100% of the precincts reporting. If these two projections are valid, Obama will have won the electoral college 364-173 (Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district is still too close to call).

In the Senate, Democrat Jeff Merkley has been projected to narrowly beat out Republican Gordon Smith by The Oregonian. But three more races have yet to called.

In Minnesota, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by 477 votes out of 2.9 million cast, so the race is transitioning into a statewide automatic recount. The National Republican Senatorial Committee sent out several statements congratulating Coleman for his win, but both the Franken and Coleman campaigns have hired legal teams to represent them in the recount, a sign that this one is far from over. The recounts will begin in mid-November are might continue into December.

Alaska Senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens still leads Democrat Mark Begich by about 3,300 votes out of more than 208,000 cast, and with just 1% of precincts left to report. There are still at least 40,000 absentee ballots, 9,000 early voting ballots, and an undetermined number of questionable ballots that need to be counted, according to Roll Call. But things don't look good for Begich.

In Georgia, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss has not reached the 50% needed to win, so he will face Democrat Jim Martin in a run-off election on December 2. Organizers and volunteers on both sides have begun to buy plane tickets to come down to Georgia. This battle won't be for a 60th seat, but it will be a seat nonetheless.

In other news, about 133.3 million people cast ballots, or about 62.5% of eligible voters, according to George Mason University expert Michael McDonald. That's the highest turnout for any election since 1960, when 63.8% voted in the contest between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon.

Merkley Wins Oregon Senate Seat

According to the Portland Oregonian, Democrat Jeff Merkley has defeated Republican Sen. Gordon Smith for the closely contested Senate seat in Oregon.

As of right now, Merkley is 6,359 votes ahead of Smith with 78% of the precincts reporting, and most of the votes that are left to be counted are from more Democratic areas of the state.

The Democrats have now picked up six Senate seats, putting their total at 57 to the Republicans' 40. Three races--in Alaska, Minnesota and Georgia--are still too close to call. If by some miracle the Democrats win all three of those races, they will have their 60-seat filibuster-proof majority. But I wouldn't bet more than a dime on that happening.