IL: Senate Dems to Seat Burris

From Politico:

The Roland Burris saga is over, as Democratic Senate leaders have accepted his credentials and will swear him in as the junior senator from Illinois by the end of this week. ...

In a statement issued after a 45-minute meeting between Senate officials and Burris’ lawyers, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Burris is now the senator-designate from Illinois after the secretary of the Senate approved his latest credentials.

Here's Reid and Durbin's official statement: "We have spoken to Mr. Burris to let him know that he is now the Senator-designate from Illinois and as such, will be accorded all the rights and privileges of a Senator-elect."

NRSC Chairman John Cornyn has already declared that regaining this Senate seat will be "a top priority for Republicans in 2010."

“I fully expect that the voters of Illinois will not soon forget this dark chapter in their state’s political history, just as I also expect voters across the country will not soon forget the arrogant mismanagement of Senate Democrat leaders in recent weeks,” Cornyn said in a statement.

The GOP is clearly smelling blood.

OH-Sen: Voinovich Officially Announces Retirement

Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) officially announced Monday morning that, "After prayerful consideration and much thought, my wife Janet and I have decided that I will not seek a third term in the United States Senate."

Voinovich (left) is the fourth Republican Senator to officially announce his retirement, putting the GOP in a tough position yet again in 2010.

This retirement gives the Democrats a good opportunity to flip the seat in 2010, when the seat will be vacant. It will also likely set up a competitive primary on both the Democratic and Republican sides.

On the Democratic side, Reps. Tim Ryan, Betty Sutton and Zack Space as well as Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner are often mentioned as potential candidates. Within hours of Voinovich's announcement, Ryan publicly confirmed his interest in running for the seat, while Fisher is reportedly leaning against running.

On the Republican side, Rob Portman--a former congressman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and US Trade Representative under President Bush--is strongly considering a run, and would be the heavy favorite for the nomination. Portman had announced earlier that he would be interested in running if Voinovich decided to retire, and has already been laying the groundwork for a run, according to The Hill.

Portman is thought to be able to clear the Republican primary field, as he reportedly has the support of the national party and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). He will also reportedly will unveil Mercer Reynolds, the finance chairman of President George W. Bush's reelection race, to head his fundraising efforts. Portman is expected to officially announce his candidacy on Wednesday.

Former Rep. John Kasich has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, but he is widely thought to be more interested in challenging Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in 2010.

In the last two election cycles, the Democrats have made great strides--in 2006 they took over a Senate seat and the governor's mansion, and Barack Obama won the state in 2008.

With all of these retirements and what looks like another an unfavorable map for the GOP, it is becoming abundantly clear that Democrats will likely achieve a 60+ seat filibuster-proof majority after the 2010 election. It is also becoming obvious that some of these Republican Senators in their 70s are not wild about the idea of living out the rest of their years in the minority, and are getting out before it gets worse.

New NRSC chairman John Cornyn must be having an ulcer.

OH-Sen: Voinovich Will Retire

According to Politico and CNN, Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) will announce that he won't seek reelection in 2010 at some point tomorrow.

I'll have more on this disastrous development for the GOP after his official announcement.

Chris Cillizza's Top 10 to Watch in 2010

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has compiled a list of the top ten candidates/politicians to watch in 2010. Here are the five that are relevant to the 2010 Senate election and what Cillizza has to say about them:

• Michael Bennet: The common reaction -- even among political junkies -- when Gov. Bill Ritter (D) named Bennet as the next senator for Colorado was, "Who?" Bennet, the head of the Denver school system and the brother of Atlantic editor James Bennet, is an unknown in Washington who is likely to be overshadowed by the other two appointed Democratic senators from Illinois and New York for the first months of the 111th Congress. But, of all the appointed senators, it is Bennet who will almost certainly have the toughest challenge in holding his seat in 2010. The reviews out of Denver say Bennet is a star-in-the-making. He'll have a chance to prove it over the next two years.

• Robin Carnahan: Anyone who knows anything about Missouri politics knows the name "Carnahan." The first family of Missouri Democratic politics has experienced its share of triumph and tragedy (the death of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and his son in a plane crash, the election of Rep. Russ Carnahan to Congress) over the last decade but 2010 seems to be shaping up as a banner year thanks to the near-certain Senate candidacy of Robin Carnahan. Carnahan currently serves as the secretary of state in Missouri and is seen by political insiders as the most talented politician the family has ever produced. While she was considering a race against Sen. Kit Bond (R) in 2010, his retirement yesterday makes a Carnahan bid almost certain.

• Paul Hodes: The conversion of New Hampshire from a swing state to a Democratic stronghold is nearly complete. In 2006 Democrats defeated both Republican members of the House; two years later Obama won by nine points at the presidential level and Jeanne Shaheen (D) knocked off Sen. John Sununu (R). The last Republican standing is Sen. Judd Gregg and Democrats are gunning for him in the form of Hodes, who, after two terms in Congress, is likely to make the race. Hodes, who is well regarded among Washington campaign sharps, might have to get past fellow Rep. Carol Shea Porter in the primary but if he does he will be an even-money bet to beat Gregg in 2010.

• Mark Kirk: If ever there was a time when Illinois Republicans could reverse their long electoral skid in statewide races, the appointment imbroglio surrounding sort-of-senator Roland Burris is it. And, if ever there was a GOP candidate who can win, it is Kirk, a moderate who has held the Democratic-leaning 10th district despite a serious of tough Democratic challenges. Kirk seems ready to make the leap for the Senate in 2010 although he could face a primary challenge in the form of Rep. Pete Roskam. Much of Kirk's chances depend on how the Burris appointment plays out. If Burris winds up being seated and running again, Kirk can make the case that he carries the taint of Blagojevich and run against the Democratic machine that has controlled Chicago politics forever. If Burris bows out in 2010 and the race is an open seat, Kirk's task is more difficult.

• Marco Rubio: With former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush out of the race for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R), Rubio is almost certainly in. Rubio, who served as speaker of the Florida state House from 2006 to 2008, is a fascinating potential candidate. He was the first Cuban-American to hold the top job in the state legislature and his political base in traditionally Democratic South Florida makes him someone to be reckoned with in a general election. And, for a party desperately in need of leaders who can appeal to the rapidly growing Hispanic vote across the country, Rubio may be just what Republicans at the national level have been dreaming of.

With Blagojevich Impeached, IL Senate Battle Becomes Waiting Game

Gov. Rod Blagojevich was impeached by a vote of 114-1 in the Illinois House yesterday. The Illinois Senate will start the impeachment trial next week, and Blagojevich has vowed to fight every step of the way.

However, I'm getting really sick of hearing and talking about Blagojevich and his impending trial, so from now on, I'm just going to focus on his Senate appointee, former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris, and the Illinois Senate seat that hangs in the balance.

Meanwhile, the Illinois Supreme Court ruled that Secretary of State Jesse White could not be forced to sign Roland Burris' Senate appointment certificate, but it also ruled that White's signature was not necessary to have him officially seated.

Sen. Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), who was looking chummy with Burris just last week, made it clear that despite the court's decision Burris would not be seated without White's signature.

But after the court ruling, White signed the certification and verified Burris' appointment, putting Durbin and Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid in a tricky position. They said they are going to consult with lawyers to see what to do next, but they are probably just stalling for time.

They would like to wait until after Blagojevich's impeachment trial is over (in which he is certain to be convicted) and have Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) make the Senate appointment. But that process could drag into mid-February, and it will be hard to keep Burris' appointment at bay for another month or more.

Meanwhile, it appears clear that Illinoisans oppose seating Burris. A new poll from Glengariff Group says that they are opposed to seating Burris by 53-32 margin, while 72% of them want either a special election or an appointment by Quinn to fill the Senate seat.

Personally, I don't think that Reid and Durbin can keep the Burris appointment in limbo for another month, so I believe that he will be seated before the Blagojevich impeachment trial is finished.

I think that the biggest reason that they don't want Burris to be seated is because they're scared of what will happen in 2010. Burris will be 73 on election day, and the majority of Senate appointees have a really hard time getting elected.

On top of that, since most Illinoisans don't want Burris to be seated, most of them probably have and will continue to hold an unfavorable view of him. If Burris wins the Democratic nomination, a strong challenger like Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) could easily defeat him. The Democrats would then be losing a seat that they should have held easily.

The solution to prevent that kind of situation would be to pose a strong primary challenge to Burris in 2010. Andrew Tanenbaum of Electoral-Vote.com makes a case for Dan Seals, a potential (young and black) challenger "who ran for Congress in 2006 and 2008 and lost narrowly both times."

FL-Sen: CFO Alex Sink Ponders Senate Run

From Campaign Diaries:

Former Governor Jeb Bush’s decision not to run for Florida’s open Senate race has freed up other Republicans who are now considering a bid; but Democrats are still waiting for their towering figure, state CFO Alex Sink. The latest speculation was sparked by an interview Sink gave to St. Petersburg Times. She notes that “open seats like this don’t come around very often” and describes herself as “very strongly considering” running. It would be hard to blame the DSCC if they got excited by such comments, and it does sound like Sink is leaning towards a run.

OH-Sen: Voinovich To Retire?

The Columbus Dispatch and Political Machine are both reporting that Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) is seriously looking at the possibility of retiring. Voinovich is in his 70's and is near the top of most pundits' retirement list among Senators up for reelection in 2010.

The Political Machine article hints that Voinovich might announce his decision regarding his plans for reelection as early as next week.

If Voinovich were to retire, the most likely Republican to replace him would be Rob Portman, a former congressman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Trade Representative.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan would lead the pack in the Democratic primary if they announced their candidacies and could pose strong challenges to Voinovich or Portman in the general election.

Whether or Voinovich retires or not, this seat will be one the most competitive in the county in 2010, and it should be an interesting one to watch.

Trio of Senate Polls

A new Research 2000 poll shows incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) leading outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 49% to 40% in a hypothetical match-up. At this point, it seems as though Schwarzenegger could be the only Republican to unseat Boxer, whose approval-disapproval rating has dropped to 48-46.

But Schwarzenegger is already a very well-known and polarizing figure in California, and thus has little room to improve his numbers. His approval ratings are worse than Boxer's (42% approve and 51% disapprove). Also, his moderate nature would certainly draw a strong challenge from the right in the Republican primary.

Meanwhile, this is all just speculation at this point, as Schwarzenegger has not yet made his intentions clear about his candidacy. The only Republican to announce his candidacy is Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who was not included in the poll. It is widely thought that he wouldn't stand much against Boxer in the general election.

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Meanwhile, a new ARG poll pitted incumbent Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) against New Hampshire's two Democratic representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter. Gregg beats Hodes 47% to 40% but crushes Shea-Porter 54% to 35%.

Even though ARG has a spotty track record, the fact that Hodes does far better against Shea-Porter against Gregg and that Hodes keeps Gregg under 50% should be a clear sign to the DSCC that Hodes would be the stronger candidate. Among undeclared (independent) voters, Gregg only leads Hodes 46-42.

The poll also shows that Gregg draws the support of 22% of Democrats against Hodes, which shows room for improvement but also shows that Gregg has strong support among New Hampshire's moderate base.

It's a pity the poll didn't pit Gregg against Gov. John Lynch (D), the least likely to run but probably the strongest challenger if he does so.

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And finally, the results of a new Rasmussen poll completely contradict a PPP poll released last Wednesday of the New York Senate race that showed Caroline Kennedy (D) leading Rep. Peter King (R) by only 2%. The Rasmussen survey showed that Kennedy would hold a wide lead over King, by a margin of 51% to 33%.

This Rasmussen poll seems to make more sense than the PPP poll. Kennedy carries one of the most famous and recognizable last names in politics and should be a darling of the Democratic base, and King is a relatively unknown figure in the state in a party that is clearly the minority in the state. Based on those circumstances, the Rasmussen poll which shows Kennedy far ahead, seems to be more accurate. But with such a wide discrepancy it's still hard to tell.

Hillary Clinton's Senate confirmation hearing is set for Tuesday and she is expected to be confirmed easily, so Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will have to make a decision too about who to appoint to the seat. The other major contender for the seat in state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, but apparently Paterson is considering 10 to 15 candidates for the job.

MO-Sen: Kit Bond Will Not Run for Re-Election

Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) announced today that he will not be running for a fifth term in 2010. This is a big blow to Senate Republicans, who have already been greatly weakened by the last two election cycles and it gives the Democrats a greater chance of picking up the seat.

Senate Republicans now officially have three of their incumbents not running for reelection--Sam Brownback of Kansas, Mel Martinez of Florida, and now Kit Bond of Missouri. A fourth GOP Senator, Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas, is almost certain to resign her Senate seat to run for governor but has not yet made a formal announcement. It is now abundantly clear that the GOP will be in for another tough election cycle.

Recent elections show that the Democrats are gaining ground in the state--Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated then-incumbent Republican Jim Talent in the 2006 Senate election and Democrat Jay Nixon was elected governor in 2008. The state also only gave John McCain a narrow 5,000-vote victory over Barack Obama. These losses for the GOP may have indicated to Bond would be vulnerable if he ran again in 2010.

Now that Bond is backing down, there is sure to be a very competitive primary on both sides. On the Republican side, potential candidates include former House Minority Whip Roy Blunt and former Sen. Jim Talent, who are both rumored to be interested in the seat.

On the Democratic side, potentially strong candidates include Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, Rep. Russ Carnahan, and State Auditor Susan Montee. Robin Carnahan has polled well against Bond, and looks like she would be an especially strong candidate.

You can expect the candidates mentioned above among others to take a much closer look at the race now that Bond has announced that he will step down.

PA-Sen: Matthews Won't Run

Before his show "Hardball" today, Chris Matthews informed the show's staff in a production meeting that he will not be running for Senate in 2010, according to Politico.

Matthews, who was thought to be a credible challenger for the Pennsylvania Senate seat held by Arlen Specter (R), and was polling well against him in a hypothetical match-up.

Matthews reportedly met with political operatives about the possibility of running against Specter, and talked about it with his family, friends, and colleagues. A Matthews candidacy would have likely cleared the the majority of the primary field on the Democratic side.

But instead, we can now expect there to be a competitive primary on the Democratic side, featuring Rep. Patrick Murphy and Rep. Allyson Schwartz as the potential front-runners.