AK-Sen: Palin vs. Murkowski Polls Show Vast Contradiction

About two weeks ago, a Research 2000 poll was released that showed that Gov. Sarah Palin would crush Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in a Republican primary by a margin of 55% to 31%. At that point, I noted that the seat was Palin's for the taking, referencing those numbers.

But then, in a complete 48-point reversal, a new Dittman Research poll shows Murkowski leading Palin 57% to 33% in a hypothetical match-up between the two among Republican primary voters.

So what the hell is going on here?

Well first, there's reason to be suspicious of the Dittman poll. It turns out it was commissioned by conservative radio host Dan Fagan, not KTUU, the local TV station who's name was in the title of the poll. And Fagan is most certainly not a fan of Palin and is a big fan of Murkowski, who he knows personally. So I wouldn't put my complete faith in this poll.

Second, Alaska has proven to be the most difficult state in the country to poll. In the 2008 election, the polls were off by a long shot in the presidential, Senate, and House races. Here's Nate Silver's theory:

[Alaska's] residents are in a strange time zone and keep strange schedules; it has very high rates of cellphone usage; it has highly unusual demographics. Several pollsters, including Research 2000, had no idea that Don Young would hang on to defeat Ethan Berkowitz in November, nor that Ted Stevens would come so close to Mark Begich.

So in sum, I have learned not to trust any poll from Alaska, but I'd say the Research 2000 poll is more viable and legitimate. But the real preference of Alaska Republicans in a Palin v. Murkowski race is probably somewhere in the middle of these two nearly polar opposite polls.

If I were Sarah Palin, I would think long and hard about challenging Murkowski for her Senate seat and giving up her own seat in the governor's mansion leading up to a 2012 run.

FL-Sen: Jeb Bush Will Not Run

To the surprise of myself and countless other political pundits, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announced today that he will not run for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez's seat in 2010, the AP reports.

Bush said, "now is not the right time to return to elected office."

This announcement clears the field for several other prominent potential Republican candidates such as state House Speaker Marco Rubio, state Attorney General Bill McCollum, and state Senate President Jeff Atwater--who were all thought unlikely to announce their candidacies if Bush had decided to run.

Now, the primary on the Republican side should prove to be messy and as of now there is no clear favorite. The DSCC is trying to get state CFO Alex Sink to run, who will now probably be more likely to throw her hat in the ring now that Bush has made it clear he will not run.

Bush was thought to be the Republicans' strongest candidate, and they were openly hoping that he would run. Democrats are sure to be rejoicing as a result of this latest development, as their chance of flipping this seat has just increased greatly.

NY-Sen: Caroline Kennedy Rapidly Losing Support

This time last week it seemed all but inevitable that Caroline Kennedy would be Gov. David Paterson's (D-NY) choice to fill Hillary Clinton's soon-to-be vacant Senate seat.

But now, as two different polls from Public Policy Polling have shown, Kennedy's support among New Yorkers for getting that position have tanked recently, to the benefit of state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

The first poll showed that Cuomo leads Kennedy 58% to 27% among New York voters as the one that they would most like to see Paterson appoint to the Senate. Cuomo led Kennedy 54-34 among Democrats alone, while she held a 44-23 lead in last month's poll in that category.

The second poll, which came out today, showed both Cuomo and Kennedy matched up against Rep. Peter King (R-NY) in a general election match-up for 2010.

Cuomo would trounce King 48% to 29%, while Kennedy's margin of victory was 46% to 44%--which is in the margin of error. Cuomo would clearly be the stronger general election candidate, according to these polls.

If Gov. Paterson is making his selection based just on the numbers, Andrew Cuomo is his man.

For the record, I've been making the case for Cuomo from the start. I think he's clearly the more qualified candidate, and he could easily raise a large campaign war chest for the 2010 election, whether he would face off against King or even Rudy Giuliani. And the above poll shows now that he is more electable than Kennedy. I implore David Paterson to see reason and see the light.

IL-Sen: Roland Burris vs. Senate Democrats

All eyes were turned to Roland Burris this morning, as he walked over to the office of the Secretary of the Senate on Capitol Hill.

But, as expected, Burris request to be seated was refused, and the Secretary of the Senate's reason was reportedly that his credentials were not in order.

Now the next step in this process is Senate Democrats referring his appointment to the Rules Committee and to determine whether or not the process of his appointment via indicted Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D-IL) was tainted by the scandal in which Blagojevich allegedly tried to sell Barack Obama's Senate seat.

Either way, this is not going to be quick or painless. Harry Reid really has his work cut out for him dealing with this whole thing as carefully as possible.

Franken Will Wait

Even though Democrat Al Franken was certified as the winner of the Minnesota Senate recount yesterday, an election lawsuit brought on by the Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is preventing Franken from receiving the certificate of election that normally serves as a candidate's final and official credential to join the Senate.

Contrary to my earlier report via the Political Wire, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) did not attempt to seat Franken today as the Senate reconvened. The drama in that body was centered mostly around Roland Burris. More on that soon.

Reid Will Try to Seat Franken Tomorrow

From Roll Call:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will attempt to seat Democrat Al Franken as the junior Senator from Minnesota on Tuesday, despite promised legal challenges from incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman (R) to the election outcome.

It seems like there will be a fair amount of drama tomorrow on the floor of the Senate. Reid and the Senate Democrats will be trying to seat Franken while trying hard to prevent Roland Burris--Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's appointment to fill Barack Obama's seat--from taking a seat.

With all this Capitol Hill drama, C-SPAN might get a few more viewers tomorrow than they usually do, making their total number of viewers in the double digits.

Canvassing Board Certifies Franken as Winner

Today was not a great day for now-former Senator Norm Coleman.

First, the state Supreme Court rejected his request to include about 650 additional wrongfully rejected absentee ballots (most of which were in Coleman-friendly territory) to the final count and to delay the Canvassing Board from certifying a winner until that request was met. This lawsuit was what many thought was his last hope, and it was a Hail Mary pass at that.

The majority opinion of the court said that the Coleman campaign's attempt to include these additional ballots did not meet the criteria for counting ballots which was laid out in a previous ruling, in which they declared that both sides had to agree for any additional wrongfully rejected absentee ballots to be counted.

Then, later in the day, the Canvassing Board certified the results of the recount and declared Democrat Al Franken (above) as the winner by a margin of 225 votes.

Franken declared victory a short time after: "After 62 days, after the careful and painstaking hand inspection of nearly 3 million ballots, after hours and hours of hard work by elections officials and volunteers across the state, I am proud and humbled to stand before you as the next Senator from Minnesota," Franken told supporters today.

He also carefully called on Coleman to bow down and concede from the race so that Minnesota could seat two Senators as soon as possible.

But the Coleman campaign had different ideas. Coleman's attorney, Tony Trimble, confirmed earlier today that the campaign will be filing a formal lawsuit contesting the results of the Canvassing Board.

Even though Franken has now been declared the winner by the Canvassing Board, he will likely not be seated for some time. In Minnesota, an election's certification is not considered final and absolute if a legal contest is filed with one week. And you can bet the farm that Coleman will file his lawsuit in that 7-day window.

Also, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, threatened a Republican filibuster if the Senate Democrats try to seat Franken provisionally before all legal matters are attended to. He said that the GOP will also block Franken until Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) cosigns Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie's election certificate.

But today's certification by the Canvassing Board was clearly a big step towards resolution of this endless Senate contest. Like I said yesterday, it's basically up to Coleman when this thing will end because it's all based on how long he wants to drag this thing out.

Schumer: Franken Won

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who just stepped down as the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, declared today that Al Franken has defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman in the Minnesota Senate recount.

“With the Minnesota recount complete, it is now clear that Al Franken won the election. The Canvassing Board will meet tomorrow to wrap up its work and certify him the winner, and while there are still possible legal issues that will run their course, there is no longer any doubt who will be the next Senator from Minnesota,” Schumer said in a statement.

The Canvassing Board is set to declare Franken the winner when they meet tomorrow, and then it is just a matter of time and lawsuits until Coleman gives up. That could be a matter of weeks or even months, depending on how long Coleman is willing to fight on.

With Recount Complete, Franken Leads By 225

With the help of the 933 wrongfully rejected absentee that were counted today by the Minnesota Canvassing Board, Democrat Al Franken gained a net 176 votes putting his overall lead over Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) at 225. This was the final step of the vote-counting process, and the recount is now officially over.

Now all eyes are turned to the Minnesota Supreme Court, which is considering a request from the Coleman campaign to include additional ballots that they believe were improperly rejected (which are from areas where Coleman did better). The Coleman campaign has also said that they will be challenging the results if and when Franken is certified as the winner.

Coleman is basically just grasping at some very short straws at this point, and barring a miracle, he will lose his seat to Franken just as soon as his court challenges are dealt with (and probably rejected).

Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty has declared that the state will not certify a winner until all legal challenges are completed, so it could be a while until Minnesota seats two Senators on Capitol Hill.

It now seems highly unlikely that Harry Reid and the Senate Democrats will try to seat Franken until he is officially certified as the winner.

But all things told, it looks like Franken's eventual victory is all but certain at this point. The only thing holding me back from calling him Senator-elect Franken is that it still sounds really weird.

CO-Sen: Bennet to Replace Salazar

Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet has reportedly been chosen by Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO) to be the next Senator from Colorado.

Bennet will replace Ken Salazar, who has been tapped by Barack Obama to be his Secretary of the Interior, and will assume his office as soon as Salazar is confirmed by the Senate.

Bennet beat out a handful of more recognized names that were also being considered for the position, including Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, Rep. John Salazar (Ken's brother), and Rep. Diana DeGette.

As superintendent of the Denver Public Schools, Bennet's work was regarded highly enough that he was reportedly a finalist to become Obama's Secretary of Education.

On the subject of what his politics are and how he will vote in the Senate, I will cede the floor to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight: "If he fits the profile of a typical Colorado Democrat, he'll be liberal on social issues and the environment, but more moderate on fiscal policy (as his business background might imply)."

Salazar's seat was up for reelection anyway in 2010, so if Bennet decides to run to keep that seat, he would be competing for a full six-year term. If he is merely serving as a placeholder until 2010, then we could see a very competitive Democratic primary with no clear favorite.

But Bennet--who is 44 years old--has a bright political future ahead of him, or so it seems. I would be surprised if he didn't run in 2010, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.